Estimating with People Who Predict PDF Download

Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher: Capstone
ISBN: 1429652438
Category : Estimation theory
Languages : en
Pages : 18

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Book Description
Introduces estimation and describes how scientists use it to predict and prepare for natural disasters.

Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher: Teacher Created Materials
ISBN:
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
There are many different jobs in which people make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past. Volcanologists and seismologists use data collection to make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past! With vibrant photos, math charts and diagrams, grade-appropriate text, and informational text features to help navigate the text, students will learn practical, real-world applications of math skills as they learn how to estimate and build their STEM skills.

Author: Diana Noonan
Publisher: Teacher Created Materials
ISBN:
Category : Juvenile Nonfiction
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
There are many different jobs in which people make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past. Volcanologists and seismologists use data collection to make predictions for the future based on data collected in the past! With vibrant ph

Author: Johanna Rothman
Publisher: Practical Ink
ISBN: 1943487022
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 115

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Book Description
If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is “guess.” But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report your estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should—and should not—estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects.

Author: Torleif Halkjelsvik
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319749536
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 117

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Book Description
This book is published open access under a CC BY 4.0 license. Predicting the time needed to complete a project, task or daily activity can be difficult and people frequently underestimate how long an activity will take. This book sheds light on why and when this happens, what we should do to avoid it and how to give more realistic time predictions. It describes methods for predicting time usage in situations with high uncertainty, explains why two plus two is usually more than four in time prediction contexts, reports on research on time prediction biases, and summarizes the evidence in support of different time prediction methods and principles. Based on a comprehensive review of the research, it is the first book summarizing what we know about judgment-based time predictions. Large parts of the book are directed toward people wishing to achieve better time predictions in their professional life, such as project managers, graphic designers, architects, engineers, film producers, consultants, software developers, or anyone else in need of realistic time usage predictions. It is also of benefit to those with a general interest in judgment and decision-making or those who want to improve their ability to predict and plan ahead in daily life.

Author: Philip E. Tetlock
Publisher: Crown
ISBN: 080413670X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

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Book Description
NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY THE ECONOMIST “The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow.”—Jason Zweig, The Wall Street Journal Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are "superforecasters." In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic.

Author: William Poundstone
Publisher: Little, Brown Spark
ISBN: 031644071X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 320

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Book Description
From the author of Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google?, a fascinating look at how an equation that foretells the future is transforming everything we know about life, business, and the universe. In the 18th century, the British minister and mathematician Thomas Bayes devised a theorem that allowed him to assign probabilities to events that had never happened before. It languished in obscurity for centuries until computers came along and made it easy to crunch the numbers. Now, as the foundation of big data, Bayes' formula has become a linchpin of the digital economy. But here's where things get really interesting: Bayes' theorem can also be used to lay odds on the existence of extraterrestrial intelligence; on whether we live in a Matrix-like counterfeit of reality; on the "many worlds" interpretation of quantum theory being correct; and on the biggest question of all: how long will humanity survive? The Doomsday Calculation tells how Silicon Valley's profitable formula became a controversial pivot of contemporary thought. Drawing on interviews with thought leaders around the globe, it's the story of a group of intellectual mavericks who are challenging what we thought we knew about our place in the universe. The Doomsday Calculation is compelling reading for anyone interested in our culture and its future.

Author: Johanna Rothman
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781680501421
Category : Project management
Languages : en
Pages : 114

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Book Description
If you have trouble estimating cost or schedule for your projects, you are not alone. The question is this: who wants the estimate and why? The definition of estimate is to guess. But too often, the people who want estimates want commitments. Instead of a commitment, you can apply practical and pragmatic approaches to developing estimates and then meet your commitments. You can provide your managers with the information they want and that you can live with. Learn how to use different words for your estimates and how to report an estimate that includes uncertainty. Learn who should and should not estimate. Learn how to update your estimate when you know more about your project. Regain estimation sanity. Learn practical and pragmatic ways to estimate schedule or cost for your projects.

Author: Daniel Gilbert
Publisher: Vintage Canada
ISBN: 0307371360
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 336

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Book Description
A smart and funny book by a prominent Harvard psychologist, which uses groundbreaking research and (often hilarious) anecdotes to show us why we’re so lousy at predicting what will make us happy – and what we can do about it. Most of us spend our lives steering ourselves toward the best of all possible futures, only to find that tomorrow rarely turns out as we had expected. Why? As Harvard psychologist Daniel Gilbert explains, when people try to imagine what the future will hold, they make some basic and consistent mistakes. Just as memory plays tricks on us when we try to look backward in time, so does imagination play tricks when we try to look forward. Using cutting-edge research, much of it original, Gilbert shakes, cajoles, persuades, tricks and jokes us into accepting the fact that happiness is not really what or where we thought it was. Among the unexpected questions he poses: Why are conjoined twins no less happy than the general population? When you go out to eat, is it better to order your favourite dish every time, or to try something new? If Ingrid Bergman hadn’t gotten on the plane at the end of Casablanca, would she and Bogey have been better off? Smart, witty, accessible and laugh-out-loud funny, Stumbling on Happiness brilliantly describes all that science has to tell us about the uniquely human ability to envision the future, and how likely we are to enjoy it when we get there.

Author: Michael Abramowicz
Publisher: Yale University Press
ISBN: 0300144954
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 364

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Book Description
Predicting the future is serious business for virtually all public and private institutions, for they must often make important decisions based upon such predictions. This text explores how institutions might improve their predictions and arrive at better decisions by means of prediction markets.