Author: Adama Bah Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Traditional poverty measures fail to indicate the degree of risk of becoming or remaining poor that households are confronted to. They can therefore be misleading in the context of implementing poverty reduction policies. In this paper I propose a method to estimate an index of ex ante vulnerability to poverty, defined as the probability of being poor in the (near) future given current observable characteristics, using panel data. This method relies on the estimation of the expected mean and variance of future consumption conditional on current consumption and observable characteristics. It generates a vulnerability index, or predicted probability of future poverty, which performs well in predicting future poverty, including out of sample. About 80% of households with a 2000 vulnerability index of 100% are actually poor in 2007. This approach provides information on the population groups that have a high probability of becoming or remaining poor in the future, whether currently poor or not. It is therefore useful to complement traditional poverty measures such as the poverty headcount, in particular for the design and planning of poverty reduction policies.
Author: François Bourguignon Publisher: ISBN: Category : Poverty Languages : en Pages : 24
Book Description
"Bourguignon, Goh, and Kim present an original method to study individual earning dynamics using repeated cross-sectional data. Because panel data of individuals are seldom available in developing countries, it is difficult to study individual earning dynamics and related issues such as the propensity of earners to fall into poverty or vulnerability to poverty because of changes in earnings. The authors show that under the assumption that individual earning dynamics obey some basic properties and follow a simple stochastic process, the main parameters of this process can be recovered from repeated cross-sectional data. The knowledge of these parameters then permits simulation of the earning dynamics of an individual, and estimate other measures of interest, such as an individual's vulnerability to poverty. The results show that model parameters recovered from pseudo panels approximate reasonably well those estimated directly from a true panel. Moreover, implications of the model, in this case pseudo-panel measures of vulnerability to poverty, reflect closely those based on actual panel data. This paper-- a product of the Office of the Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics-- is part of a larger effort in the vice presidency to improve measurement of vulnerability to poverty"-- World Bank web site.
Author: Francois Bourguignon Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 17
Book Description
Bourguignon, Goh, and Kim present an original method to study individual earning dynamics using repeated cross-sectional data. Because panel data of individuals are seldom available in developing countries, it is difficult to study individual earning dynamics and related issues such as the propensity of earners to fall into poverty or vulnerability to poverty because of changes in earnings. The authors show that under the assumption that individual earning dynamics obey some basic properties and follow a simple stochastic process, the main parameters of this process can be recovered from repeated cross-sectional data. The knowledge of these parameters then permits simulation of the earning dynamics of an individual, and estimate other measures of interest, such as an individual's vulnerability to poverty. The results show that model parameters recovered from pseudo panels approximate reasonably well those estimated directly from a true panel. Moreover, implications of the model, in this case pseudo-panel measures of vulnerability to poverty, reflect closely those based on actual panel data.This paper - a product of the Office of the Vice President and Chief Economist, Development Economics - is part of a larger effort in the vice presidency to improve measurement of vulnerability to poverty.
Author: M. Grimm Publisher: Springer ISBN: 0230306624 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 353
Book Description
With the current global crisis, high levels of volatility in trade, capital flows, commodity prices, aid, and the looming threat of climate change, this book brings together high-quality research and presents conceptual issues and empirical results to analyze the determinants of the vulnerability to poverty in developing countries.
Author: Lant Pritchett Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: Category : Consumption (Economics) Languages : en Pages : 36
Book Description
Typically only a small proportion of the population is chronically poor; many more are not always poor but vulnerable to episodes or seasons of proverty and would be interested inprograms that reduce the risks they face
Author: Ethan Ligon Publisher: ISBN: Category : Cost and standard of living Languages : en Pages : 63
Book Description
A number of researchers have recently proposed a variety of different 'vulnerability' measures designed to capture the welfare consequences of risk for poor households, and also proposed a variety of different approaches to estimating these various measures of household vulnerability. However, it's possible to 'mix-and-match' estimators and measures. Here we conduct Monte Carlo experiments designed to explore the performance of different estimators with different measures, under different assumptions regarding the underlying economic environment. We find that when the environment is stationary, and consumption expenditures are measured without error, that the best estimator is one proposed by Chaudhuri (2001), regardless of what measure of vulnerability is employed. If the vulnerability measure is risk-sensitive, but consumption is measured with error, a simple estimator proposed by the authors (2003) generally performs best. However, when the distribution of consumption is non-stationary, a modification of an estimator proposed by Pritchett et al. (2000) performs best. Future research should focus on combining the efficiency of the Chauduri estimator with the good properties of the authors (in environments with measurement error), and Pritchett (in non-stationary environments) estimators. However, even with present technology estimating vulnerability is simple, and much more informative, and useful than are static poverty measures, provided one has at least two rounds of panel data.
Author: Asep Suryahadi Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 32
Book Description
Typically only a small proportion of the population is chronically poor; many more are not always poor but are vulnerable to episodes or seasons of poverty and would be interested in programs that reduce the risks they face.Vulnerability is an important aspect of households' experience of poverty. Many households, while not currently in poverty, recognize that they are vulnerable to events - a bad harvest, a lost job, an illness, an unexpected expense, an economic downturn - that could easily push them into poverty.Most operational measures define poverty as some function of the shortfall of current income or consumption expenditures from a poverty line, and hence measure poverty only at a single point in time.Pritchett, Suryahadi, and Sumarto propose a simple expansion of those measures to quantify vulnerability to poverty. They define vulnerability as a probability, the risk that a household will experience at least one episode of poverty in the near future. A household is defined as vulnerable if it has 50-50 odds or worse of falling into poverty.Using those definitions, they calculate the vulnerability to poverty line (VPL) as the level of expenditures below which a household is vulnerable to poverty. The VPL allows the calculation of a headcount vulnerability rate (the proportion of households vulnerable to poverty), a direct analogue of the headcount poverty rate.The authors implement this approach using two sets of panel data from Indonesia. First they show that if the poverty line is set so that the headcount poverty rate is 20 percent, the proportion of households vulnerable to poverty is roughly 30-50 percent. In addition to the 20 percent currently poor, an additional 10-30 percent of the population is at substantial risk of poverty.They illustrate the usefulness of this approach for targeting by examining differences in vulnerability between households by gender, level of education, urban-rural residence, land-holding status, and sector of occupation of the head of household.This paper - a product of the Environment and Social Development Sector Unit, East Asia and Pacific Region - is part of a larger effort in the region to develop a national poverty reduction strategy for Indonesia. Lant Pritchett may be contacted at [email protected].
Author: Ethan A. Ligon Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Traditional poverty measures neglect several important dimensions of household welfare. In this paper we construct a measure of 'vulnerability' which allows us to quantify the welfare loss associated with poverty as well as the loss associated with any of a variety of different sources of uncertainty. Applying our measure to a panel dataset from Bulgaria in 1994, we find that poverty and risk play roughly equal roles in reducing welfare. Aggregate shocks are more important than idiosyncratic sources of risk, but households headed by an employed, educated male are less vulnerable to aggregate shocks than are other households.
Author: Adama Bah
Author: François Bourguignon
Author: Francois Bourguignon
Author: M. Grimm
Author: Lant Pritchett
Author: Gisele Gamanou
Author: Ethan Ligon
Author: Asep Suryahadi
Author: Ethan A. Ligon
Author: Katja Landau