Estimating Reliability from the First Two Failures PDF Download

Author: John S. White
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Panel on Reliability Growth Methods for Defense Systems
Publisher: National Academy Press
ISBN: 9780309314749
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 235

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Book Description
A high percentage of defense systems fail to meet their reliability requirements. This is a serious problem for the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD), as well as the nation. Those systems are not only less likely to successfully carry out their intended missions, but they also could endanger the lives of the operators. Furthermore, reliability failures discovered after deployment can result in costly and strategic delays and the need for expensive redesign, which often limits the tactical situations in which the system can be used. Finally, systems that fail to meet their reliability requirements are much more likely to need additional scheduled and unscheduled maintenance and to need more spare parts and possibly replacement systems, all of which can substantially increase the life-cycle costs of a system. Beginning in 2008, DOD undertook a concerted effort to raise the priority of reliability through greater use of design for reliability techniques, reliability growth testing, and formal reliability growth modeling, by both the contractors and DOD units. To this end, handbooks, guidances, and formal memoranda were revised or newly issued to reduce the frequency of reliability deficiencies for defense systems in operational testing and the effects of those deficiencies. "Reliability Growth" evaluates these recent changes and, more generally, assesses how current DOD principles and practices could be modified to increase the likelihood that defense systems will satisfy their reliability requirements. This report examines changes to the reliability requirements for proposed systems; defines modern design and testing for reliability; discusses the contractor's role in reliability testing; and summarizes the current state of formal reliability growth modeling. The recommendations of "Reliability Growth" will improve the reliability of defense systems and protect the health of the valuable personnel who operate them.

Author: Andrew N O'Connor
Publisher: RIAC
ISBN: 1933904062
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 220

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The book provides details on 22 probability distributions. Each distribution section provides a graphical visualization and formulas for distribution parameters, along with distribution formulas. Common statistics such as moments and percentile formulas are followed by likelihood functions and in many cases the derivation of maximum likelihood estimates. Bayesian non-informative and conjugate priors are provided followed by a discussion on the distribution characteristics and applications in reliability engineering.

Author: William Q. Meeker
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118115457
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 708

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Book Description
An authoritative guide to the most recent advances in statistical methods for quantifying reliability Statistical Methods for Reliability Data, Second Edition (SMRD2) is an essential guide to the most widely used and recently developed statistical methods for reliability data analysis and reliability test planning. Written by three experts in the area, SMRD2 updates and extends the long- established statistical techniques and shows how to apply powerful graphical, numerical, and simulation-based methods to a range of applications in reliability. SMRD2 is a comprehensive resource that describes maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods for solving practical problems that arise in product reliability and similar areas of application. SMRD2 illustrates methods with numerous applications and all the data sets are available on the book’s website. Also, SMRD2 contains an extensive collection of exercises that will enhance its use as a course textbook. The SMRD2's website contains valuable resources, including R packages, Stan model codes, presentation slides, technical notes, information about commercial software for reliability data analysis, and csv files for the 93 data sets used in the book's examples and exercises. The importance of statistical methods in the area of engineering reliability continues to grow and SMRD2 offers an updated guide for, exploring, modeling, and drawing conclusions from reliability data. SMRD2 features: Contains a wealth of information on modern methods and techniques for reliability data analysis Offers discussions on the practical problem-solving power of various Bayesian inference methods Provides examples of Bayesian data analysis performed using the R interface to the Stan system based on Stan models that are available on the book's website Includes helpful technical-problem and data-analysis exercise sets at the end of every chapter Presents illustrative computer graphics that highlight data, results of analyses, and technical concepts Written for engineers and statisticians in industry and academia, Statistical Methods for Reliability Data, Second Edition offers an authoritative guide to this important topic.

Author: Franklin R. Nash
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 079239304X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 214

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Book Description
Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is concerned with the plausibility of reliability estimates obtained from statistical models. Statistical predictions are necessary because technology is always pushing into unexplored areas faster than devices can be made long-lived by design. Flawed reliability methodologies can produce disastrous results, an outstanding example of which is the catastrophic failure of the manned space shuttle CHALLENGER in January 1986. This issue is not whether, but which, statistical models should be used. The issue is not making reliability estimates, but is instead their credibility. The credibility questions explored in the context of practical applications include: What does the confidence level associated with the use of statistical model mean? Is the numerical result associated with a high confidence level beyond dispute? When is it appropriate to use the exponential (constant hazard rate) model? Does this model always provide the most conservative reliability estimate? Are the results of traditional `random' failure hazard rate calculations tenable? Are there persuasive alternatives? What model should be used to describe the useful life of a device when wearout is absent? When Weibull and lognormal failure plots containing a large number of failure times appear similar, how should the correct wearout model be selected? Is it important to distinguish between a conservative upper bound on a probability of failure and a realistic estimate of the same probability? Estimating Device Reliability: Assessment of Credibility is for those who are obliged to make reliability calculations with a paucity of somewhat corrupt data, by using inexact models, and by making physical assumptions which are impractical to verify. Illustrative examples deal with a variety of electronic devices, ICs and lasers.

Author: Paulo Romero Martins Maciel
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000643328
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 748

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Book Description
Covers performance, reliability, and availability evaluation for computing systems, although the methods may also be applied to other systems Provides a resource for computer performance professionals to support planning, design, configuring, and tuning the performance, reliability, and availability of computing systems Volume 2 includes coverage of reliability and availability modeling and measuring and data analysis

Author: James E. Breneman
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119640563
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 644

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Book Description
Introduction to Reliability Engineering A complete revision of the classic text on reliability engineering, written by an expanded author team with increased industry perspective Introduction to Reliability Engineering provides a thorough and well-balanced overview of the fundamental aspects of reliability engineering and describes the role of probability and statistical analysis in predicting and evaluating reliability in a range of engineering applications. Covering both foundational theory and real-world practice, this classic textbook helps students of any engineering discipline understand key probability concepts, random variables and their use in reliability, Weibull analysis, system safety analysis, reliability and environmental stress testing, redundancy, failure interactions, and more. Extensively revised to meet the needs of today’s students, the Third Edition fully reflects current industrial practices and provides a wealth of new examples and problems that now require the use of statistical software for both simulation and analysis of data. A brand-new chapter examines Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA) and the Reliability Testing chapter has been greatly expanded, while new and expanded sections cover topics such as applied probability, probability plotting with software, the Monte Carlo simulation, and reliability and safety risk. Throughout the text, increased emphasis is placed on the Weibull distribution and its use in reliability engineering. Presenting students with an interdisciplinary perspective on reliability engineering, this textbook: Presents a clear and accessible introduction to reliability engineering that assumes no prior background knowledge of statistics and probability Teaches students how to solve problems involving reliability data analysis using software including Minitab and Excel Features new and updated examples, exercises, and problems sets drawn from a variety of engineering fields Includes several useful appendices, worked examples, answers to selected exercises, and a companion website Introduction to Reliability Engineering, Third Edition remains the perfect textbook for both advanced undergraduate and graduate students in all areas of engineering and manufacturing technology.

Author: David M. Nicol
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Computer software
Languages : en
Pages : 94

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Author: Ilia B. Frenkel
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118701895
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 449

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Book Description
This complete resource on the theory and applications of reliability engineering, probabilistic models and risk analysis consolidates all the latest research, presenting the most up-to-date developments in this field. With comprehensive coverage of the theoretical and practical issues of both classic and modern topics, it also provides a unique commemoration to the centennial of the birth of Boris Gnedenko, one of the most prominent reliability scientists of the twentieth century. Key features include: expert treatment of probabilistic models and statistical inference from leading scientists, researchers and practitioners in their respective reliability fields detailed coverage of multi-state system reliability, maintenance models, statistical inference in reliability, systemability, physics of failures and reliability demonstration many examples and engineering case studies to illustrate the theoretical results and their practical applications in industry Applied Reliability Engineering and Risk Analysis is one of the first works to treat the important areas of degradation analysis, multi-state system reliability, networks and large-scale systems in one comprehensive volume. It is an essential reference for engineers and scientists involved in reliability analysis, applied probability and statistics, reliability engineering and maintenance, logistics, and quality control. It is also a useful resource for graduate students specialising in reliability analysis and applied probability and statistics. Dedicated to the Centennial of the birth of Boris Gnedenko, renowned Russian mathematician and reliability theorist

Author: Michael T. Todinov
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 0080467555
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 396

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Book Description
This book has been written with the intention to fill two big gaps in the reliability and risk literature: the risk-based reliability analysis as a powerful alternative to the traditional reliability analysis and the generic principles for reducing technical risk. An important theme in the book is the generic principles and techniques for reducing technical risk. These have been classified into three major categories: preventive (reducing the likelihood of failure), protective (reducing the consequences from failure) and dual (reducing both, the likelihood and the consequences from failure). Many of these principles (for example: avoiding clustering of events, deliberately introducing weak links, reducing sensitivity, introducing changes with opposite sign, etc.) are discussed in the reliability literature for the first time. Significant space has been allocated to component reliability. In the last chapter of the book, several applications are discussed of a powerful equation which constitutes the core of a new theory of locally initiated component failure by flaws whose number is a random variable. Offers a shift in the existing paradigm for conducting reliability analyses Covers risk-based reliability analysis and generic principles for reducing risk Provides a new measure of risk based on the distribution of the potential losses from failure as well as the basic principles for risk-based design Incorporates fast algorithms for system reliability analysis and discrete-event simulators Includes the probability of failure of a structure with complex shape expressed with a simple equation