Author: Albert J. EcksteinPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Book Description
Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework
Author: Albert J. EcksteinPublisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Book Description
Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework
Author: Albert J. EcksteinEstimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework
Author: Albert J. EcksteinEstimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework
Author: Albert J. EcksteinPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
USA. Report presenting the results of initial research in developing an econometric model for estimated productivity and development potential, with emphasis on labour supply and production functions - includes references and statistical tables.
A New Methodology for Estimating the Output Gap in the United States
Author: Ali AlichiPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513523465
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 17
Book Description
The gap between potential and actual output—the output gap—is a key variable for policymaking. This paper adapts the methodology developed in Blagrave and others (2015) to estimate the path of output gap in the U.S. economy. The results show that the output gap has considerably shrunk since the Great Recession, but still remains negative. While the results are more robust than other existing methodologies, there is still significant uncertainty surrounding the estimates.
Estimating Potential Output with a Multivariate Filter
Author: International Monetary FundPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455210927
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39
Book Description
This paper develops a simple model for measuring potential output that uses data on inflation, unemployment, and capacity utilization. We apply the model to 10 countries, in addition to the United States and the euro area. While there is a substantial amount of uncertainty around our estimates, we find that the financial crisis has resulted in a reduction in potential output.
Steady as She Goes—Estimating Potential Output During Financial “Booms and Busts”
Author: Mr.Helge BergerPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513503278
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 33
Book Description
Potential output—in the sense of the GDP level or path an economy can sustain over the medium term—is a crucial benchmark for policymakers. However, it is difficult to estimate when financial “booms and busts” are driving the real economy. This paper uses a simple multivariate filtering approach to illustrate the role financial variables play in driving potential or sustainable output. The results suggest that it moves more steadily during financial “boom and bust” periods than implied by conventional HP filter estimates, which tend to more closely follow actual GDP. A two-region, multisector New Keynesian DSGE model with financial frictions sheds light on the economic forces that could be behind the results obtained from the filter. This has important implications for policymakers.
Multivariate Filter Estimation of Potential Output for the United States
Author: Ali AlichiPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475598386
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
Book Description
Estimates of potential output are an important component of a structured forecasting and policy analysis system. Using information on capacity utilization, this paper extends the multivariate filter developed by Laxton and Tetlow (1992) and modified by Benes and others (2010), Blagrave and others (2015), and Alichi and others (2015). We show that, although still fairly uncertain, the real-time estimates from this approach are more accurate than estimates constructed from naïve univariate statistical filters. The paper presents illustrative estimates for the United States and discusses how the end-of-sample estimates can be improved with additional information.
Measuring Output Gap: Is It Worth Your Time?
Author: Mr.Jiaqian ChenPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 151352786X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28
Book Description
We apply a range of models to the U.K. data to obtain estimates of the output gap. A structural VAR with an appropriate identification strategy provides improved estimates of output gap with better real time properties and lower sensitivity to temporary shocks than the usual filtering techniques. It also produces smaller out-of-sample forecast errors for inflation. At the same time, however, our results suggest caution in basing policy decisions on output gap estimates.
Achieving the Goals of the Employment Act of 1946 - Thirtieth Anniversary Review - V.1 - Employment - Paper No.4 - Estimating Potential Output for the U.S. Economy in a Model Framework - a Study, 94th Congress, 2nd
Author: United States. Congress. Joint Economic CommitteePublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 49
Book Description