Author: Akihiro Nomura
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fiscal policy
Languages : en
Pages : 127

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Book Description

Author: A. Cantelmo
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Andres Pablo Sarto
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 147

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Book Description
This thesis studies new methods to estimate the effects of interventions at the macroeconomic level using regional variation. Chapter 1 studies the relationship between elasticities at the regional level and elasticities at the macroeconomic level. To this end, I analyze regional versions of canonical macroeconomic models, along with different policies of interest, such as aggregate government spending. At the regional level, I show that there are two relevant elasticities for policy analyses, the micro-local elasticities and the micro-global elasticities. The former measure how a region reacts to a regional policy, the latter measure how a region reacts to an aggregate policy. I then show that the macro elasticity of interest is a function of the micro-global elasticities exclusively. Finally, I show that if we fix a policy and an outcome variable, the mapping from the micro-global elasticities to the macro elasticity is the same across models. Chapter 2 proposes a new approach (Regional Structural VAR (RSVAR)) to estimate macroeconomic elasticities using regional data that avoids the problem of model-specific estimates. I first define a class of models, which includes the most widely used models for policy analysis, that gives equilibrium regional equations that contain the micro-local and micro-global elasticities. I then specify different sets of identification assumptions, along with estimators of the macroeconomic elasticities, and show that the estimators proposed are consistent. The crucial assumption underlying all of these results is that regions are heterogeneous in the sense that they react differently to the same shocks. Chapter 3 provides a new identification strategy to estimate the fiscal multiplier in the US. Using state-level data for the period 1971-2008, I apply a RSVAR approach to recover the national fiscal multiplier. The instrument employed at the state level is the official declarations of natural disasters by the federal government. My results suggest a very precisely estimated fiscal multiplier of around 1, depending on the specification used. Thus, it is not possible to rule out the possibility that government spending crowds out/in private spending. However, the range of the estimates obtained (0.7 - 1.2) suggests that either effect should be small.

Author: Lucas Bernard
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319398873
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 332

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Book Description
This edited volume, with contributions by area experts, offers discussions on a range of evolving topics in economics and social development. At center are important issues central to sustainable development, economic growth, technological change, the economics of climate change, commodity markets, long wave theory, non-linear dynamic models, and boom-bust cycles. This is an excellent reference for academic and professional economists interested in emerging areas of empirical macroeconomics and finance. For policy makers and curious readers alike, it is also an outstanding introduction to the economic thinking of those who seek a holistic and all-compassing approach in economic theory and policy. Looking into new data and methodology, this book offers fresh approaches in a post-crisis environment. Set in a profound understanding of the diverse currents within the many traditions of economic thought, this book pushes the established frontiers of economic thinking. It is dedicated to a leading scholar in the areas covered in this book, Willi Semmler.

Author: Athanasios Asimakopulos
Publisher: McGill-Queen's Press - MQUP
ISBN: 0773563032
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 291

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Book Description
Economic Theory, Welfare, and the State looks at how economic theory can be used to investigate and analyse the operations of market economies and to provide the basis for improvements in government policy-making. The collection begins with two chapters on the history of economic thought, followed by an exploration of possible areas of conflict between the interests of groups and individuals, and an insightful blend of economic history and economic theory that sheds light on the Canadian government's policy of settling the Prairies by providing land grants. Also included are a critical analysis of rational expectations models and their use in econometrics, an examination of why money should be treated as a public good, and two contributions on international trade theory. Two chapters deal with the problem of maintaining satisfactory levels of employment and three chapters examine different aspects of public pensions. Among the contributors to this volume are a former teacher of Weldon's, his fellow students and colleagues, and former students. They are Louis Ascah, Athanasios Asimakopulos, Clarence Lyle Barber, Kenneth E. Boulding, John Burbidge, Robert D. Cairns, John S. Chipman, John H. Dales, Christopher Green, Peter Howitt, Murray C. Kemp, Gideon Rosenbluth, Robin Rowley, Thomas K. Rymes, David Schwartzman, Dan Usher, and Shigemi Yabuuchi.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781321540383
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 196

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Book Description
This research analyzes efficacy of the macroeconomic policies and the role of policymakers to deal with a recessionary case. In particular, it focuses on the instruments policymakers have in hand to stimulate the economic activity. It does the quantitative multiplier analysis for economies with various forms of financial market imperfections to provide a greater degree of realism into macroeconomic modeling. The first chapter analyzes efficacy of a fiscal policy tool, a tax cut in particular, in a liquidity trap scenario where monetary expansion is ineffective. It basically answers a question, as to when the zero-lower-bound is binding and the conventional monetary policy is not working, whether the discretionary fiscal policy is really ineffective as has recently been argued. The second chapter focuses on unconventional monetary policy in a closed economy and researches a question as to whether certain assumptions regarding constraints and rigidities amplify or mitigate the macroeconomic or real effects of unconventional monetary policy. The third chapter examines the macroeconomic effects of a social security reform. It analyzes contributions from different forms of changes; quantifies the macroeconomic implications of various reforms. Scenario analysis reveal positive effects for labor supply, capital stock and output to the reform implemented.

Author: Ric D. Herbert
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0792382390
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 338

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Book Description
Observers and Macroeconomic Systems is concerned with the computational aspects of using a control-theoretic approach to the analysis of dynamic macroeconomic systems. The focus is on using a separate model for the development of the control policies. In particular, it uses the observer-based approach whereby the separate model learns to behave in a similar manner to the economic system through output-injections. The book shows how this approach can be used to learn the forward-looking behaviour of economic actors which is a distinguishing feature of dynamic macroeconomic models. It also shows how it can be used in conjunction with low-order models to undertake policy analysis with a large practical econometric model. This overcomes some of the computational problems arising from using just the large econometric models to compute optimal policy trajectories. The work also develops visual simulation software tools that can be used for policy analysis with dynamic macroeconomic systems.

Author: Mingjun Zhao
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bayesian statistical decision theory
Languages : en
Pages : 76

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Book Description
Abstract: My dissertation grapples with the issues of model uncertainty in macroeconomics, and analyzes its consequences for monetary policy. It consists of three essays. In the first essay (Chapter 1), "Monetary Policy under Misspecified Expectations", I examine policy choices for the central bank that faces uncertainty about the process of expectation formation by economic agents. The economy contains both "rule-of-thumb" agents who base their expectations on recent observations and agents who have rational expectations. The central bank is uncertain about the fraction of the rule-of-thumb agents. This uncertainty concern enables me to partially rationalize the over cautious policy stance of the Fed: empirically observed policy in the past two decades involves much weaker responses than optimal policies derived from various micro-founded models. It is well understood that when the economy is more forward-looking, the central bank displays more aggressive responses to inflation and output. But the uncertainty-averse central bank evaluates policies by the performance in the worst case. In my economy this has a high fraction of agents that are backward-looking. The best policy the central bank chooses thus involves moderate responses. That is to say, this minimax policy moves closer toward actual less responsive policy. In the second essay (Chapter 2), "Phillips Curve Uncertainty and Monetary Policy", I investigate the effect of model uncertainty on policy choices employing a more general approach, which nests the minimax and Bayesian approaches as limiting cases. The central bank is uncertain about whether the economy has a sticky price Phillips curve or a sticky information Phillips curve. I argue that how the central bank chooses a policy depends both on its perception of uncertainty environment and on its attitude towards uncertainty. I find that as the central bank either becomes more uncertainty-averse or considers sticky information more plausible, the response to inflation decreases and to output increases. The third essay (Chapter 3) is entitled "Optimal Simple Rules in RE Models with Risk Sensitive Preferences". This paper provides a useful method to solve optimal simple rules under risk sensitive preference in macro models with forward looking behavior. An application to a new Keynesian model with lagged dynamics is offered and risk sensitive preference is found to amplify policy responses.

Author: Sean Holly
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 250

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Book Description
Celebrates the contribution of Sir James Ball to economic policy and theory, with a range of original essays covering managing the economy, exchange rate policy, structural adjustments in the UK, a theory of intercept corrections in microeconomic forecasting and other matters.

Author: D. Papadimitriou
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230367356
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 421

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Book Description
A collection of papers from leading thinkers to celebrate the work of the late Wynne Godley, and his enormous contribution to the field of monetary economics. Chapters include in-depth discussions of the revolutionary economic modelling systems that Godley introduced, as well as his prescient concerns about the global financial crash.