A Critical Essay on Modern Macroeconomic Theory PDF Download

Author: Frank Hahn
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 9780262581547
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 174

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Book Description
In the early 1980s, rational expectations and new classical economics dominated macroeconomic theory. This essay evolved from theauthors' profound disagreement with that trend. It demonstrates notonly how the new classical view got macroeconomics wrong, but also howto go about doing macroeconomics the right way.

Author: Charles F. Manski
Publisher: Harvard University Press
ISBN: 0674067541
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 218

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Book Description
Manski argues that public policy is based on untrustworthy analysis. Failing to account for uncertainty in an uncertain world, policy analysis routinely misleads policy makers with expressions of certitude. Manski critiques the status quo and offers an innovation to improve both how policy research is conducted and how it is used by policy makers.

Author: Jacques Drèze
Publisher: CUP Archive
ISBN: 9780521386975
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 460

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Book Description
Professor Dreze is a highly respected mathematical economist and econometrician. This book brings together some of his major contributions to the economic theory of decision making under uncertainty, and also several essays. These include an important essay on 'Decision theory under moral hazard and state dependent preferences' that significantly extends modern theory, and which provides rigorous foundations for subsequent chapters. Topics covered within the theory include decision theory, market allocation and prices, consumer decisions, theory of the firm, labour contracts, and public decisions.

Author: Frank H. Knight
Publisher: Cosimo, Inc.
ISBN: 1602060053
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 401

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Book Description
A timeless classic of economic theory that remains fascinating and pertinent today, this is Frank Knight's famous explanation of why perfect competition cannot eliminate profits, the important differences between "risk" and "uncertainty," and the vital role of the entrepreneur in profitmaking. Based on Knight's PhD dissertation, this 1921 work, balancing theory with fact to come to stunning insights, is a distinct pleasure to read. FRANK H. KNIGHT (1885-1972) is considered by some the greatest American scholar of economics of the 20th century. An economics professor at the University of Chicago from 1927 until 1955, he was one of the founders of the Chicago school of economics, which influenced Milton Friedman and George Stigler.

Author: Markus Brunnermeier
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022609264X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 286

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Book Description
The recent financial crisis and the difficulty of using mainstream macroeconomic models to accurately monitor and assess systemic risk have stimulated new analyses of how we measure economic activity and the development of more sophisticated models in which the financial sector plays a greater role. Markus Brunnermeier and Arvind Krishnamurthy have assembled contributions from leading academic researchers, central bankers, and other financial-market experts to explore the possibilities for advancing macroeconomic modeling in order to achieve more accurate economic measurement. Essays in this volume focus on the development of models capable of highlighting the vulnerabilities that leave the economy susceptible to adverse feedback loops and liquidity spirals. While these types of vulnerabilities have often been identified, they have not been consistently measured. In a financial world of increasing complexity and uncertainty, this volume is an invaluable resource for policymakers working to improve current measurement systems and for academics concerned with conceptualizing effective measurement.

Author: Jorge Mario Uribe Gil
Publisher: Ed. Universidad de Cantabria
ISBN: 8417888756
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 212

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Book Description
This book adds to the resolution of two problems in finance and economics: i) what is macro-financial uncertainty? : How to measure it? How is it different from risk? How important is it for the financial markets? And ii) what sort of asymmetries underlie financial risk and uncertainty propagation across the global financial markets? That is, how risk and uncertainty change according to factors such as market states or market participants. In Chapter 2, which is entitled “Momentum Uncertainties”, the relationship between macroeconomic uncertainty and the abnormal returns of a momentum trading strategy in the stock market is studies. We show that high levels of uncertainty in the economy impact negatively and significantly the returns of a portfolio of stocks that consist of buying past winners and selling past losers. High uncertainty reduces below zero the abnormal returns of momentum, extinguishes the Sharpe ratio of the momentum strategy, while increases the probability of momentum crashes both by increasing the skewness and the kurtosis of the momentum return distribution. Uncertainty acts as an economic regime that underlies abrupt changes over time of the returns generated by momentum strategies. In Chapter 3, “Measuring Uncertainty in the Stock Market”, a new index for measuring stock market uncertainty on a daily basis is proposed. The index considers the inherent differentiation between uncertainty and the common variations between the series. The second contribution of chapter 3 is to show how this financial uncertainty index can also serve as an indicator of macroeconomic uncertainty. Finally, the dynamic relationship between uncertainty and the series of consumption, interest rates, production and stock market prices, among others, is analized. In chapter 4: “Uncertainty, Systemic Shocks and the Global Banking Sector: Has the Crisis Modified their Relationship?” we explore the stability of systemic risk and uncertainty propagation among financial institutions in the global economy, and show that it has remained stable over the last decade. Additionally, a new simple tool for measuring the resilience of financial institutions to these systemic shocks is provided. We examine the characteristics and stability of systemic risk and uncertainty, in relation to the dynamics of the banking sector stock returns. This sort of evidence is supportive of past claims, made in the field of macroeconomics, which hold that during the global financial crisis the financial system may have faced stronger versions of traditional shocks rather than a new type of shock. In chapter 5, “Currency downside risk, liquidity, and financial stability”, downside risk propagation across global currency markets and the ways in which it is related to liquidity is analyzed. Two primary contributions to the literature follow. First, tail-spillovers between currencies in the global FX market are estimated. This index is easy to build and does not require intraday data, which constitutes an important advantage. Second, we show that turnover is related to risk spillovers in global currency markets. Chapter 6 is entitled “Spillovers from the United States to Latin American and G7 Stock Markets: A VAR-Quantile Analysis”. This chapter contributes to the studies of contagion, market integration and cross-border spillovers during both regular and crisis episodes by carrying out a multivariate quantile analysis. It focuses on Latin American stock markets, which have been characterized by a highly positive dynamic in recent decades, in terms of market capitalization and liquidity ratios, after a far-reaching process of market liberalization and reforms to pension funds across the continent during the 80s and 90s. We document smaller dependences between the LA markets and the US market than those between the US and the developed economies, especially in the highest and lowest quantiles.

Author: Professor of Economics Graciela Chichilnisky
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 0521553555
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
Leading theorists offer insights on the role of uncertainty and information in the market.

Author: Bahrum Lamehdasht
Publisher: Lulu.com
ISBN: 1291879463
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 174

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Book Description
This book contains essays and revision notes for Macroeconomics at the undergraduate level. This book includes the following topics: - Keynes vs. the Classics; - Keynes vs. Say's Law; - Keynes and the Neoclassical Synthesis; - IS-LM; - Keynes and Disequilibrium Economics; - Monetarism; - New Classical Economics; - Real Business Cycle Theory; - Kalecki's Trade Cycle; - Minsky's Financial Instability Hypothesis; - Harrod-Domar vs. Solow; - The Solow Model; - Endogenous Growth Theory; - Cambridge Capital Controversy; - The Mundell-Fleming Model; - Dornbusch's Overshooting Exchange Rate Model

Author: Lars Peter Hansen
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691170975
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 453

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Book Description
The standard theory of decision making under uncertainty advises the decision maker to form a statistical model linking outcomes to decisions and then to choose the optimal distribution of outcomes. This assumes that the decision maker trusts the model completely. But what should a decision maker do if the model cannot be trusted? Lars Hansen and Thomas Sargent, two leading macroeconomists, push the field forward as they set about answering this question. They adapt robust control techniques and apply them to economics. By using this theory to let decision makers acknowledge misspecification in economic modeling, the authors develop applications to a variety of problems in dynamic macroeconomics. Technical, rigorous, and self-contained, this book will be useful for macroeconomists who seek to improve the robustness of decision-making processes.

Author: Mark Setterfield
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1847203116
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 437

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Book Description
That the chapters in the volume cover such a wide range of important, often fundamental, topics is a proper tribute to Basil Moore s influence and contributions over his working life. From the foreword by G.C. Harcourt, Jesus College, Cambridge, UK During a distinguished career, Basil Moore has made numerous important contributions to macroeconomics and monetary economics, and is renowned as the progenitor of the horizontalist analysis of endogenous money. More recently, he has embraced complexity theory as part of an ongoing effort to understand macroeconomics as an evolving, path-dependent process. This book celebrates and explores Basil Moore s interests in and contributions to monetary and macroeconomic theory. Complexity, Endogenous Money and Macroeconomic Theory features original essays by internationally acclaimed and expert authors. It comprises a selection of papers on five distinct but interrelated themes: economic concepts, tools and methodology; complexity, uncertainty and path dependence; the macroeconomics of endogenous money; the macroeconomics of exogenous interest rates; and unemployment, inflation and the determination of aggregate income. These papers combine to provide a comprehensive methodological and theoretical discussion of the macroeconomics of a monetary production economy. The book will be of interest to professionals and research students in the fields of macroeconomics and monetary economics especially those with an interest in the Post Keynesian approach to analyzing these fields, including the wide audience that has been reached by the contributions of Basil Moore himself.