Essays on Macroeconomic Volatility and the Great Moderation PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Essays on Macroeconomic Volatility and the Great Moderation PDF full book. Access full book title Essays on Macroeconomic Volatility and the Great Moderation by Michael W. Clark. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Michael W. Clark Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation is a collection of two essays on the macroeconomic volatility and the Great Moderation. The first essay examines the causes of the Great Moderation in United States, while the second essay takes an international approach in examining if the Great Moderation was one or multiple events for the industrialized countries. The first essay analyzes the causes of the large decline in aggregate volatility for the United States, phenomenon known as the Great Moderation, one of the most widely recognized characteristics of the modern U.S. economy. However, the literature found no consensus on what caused it. In order to uncover the causes of the Great Moderation we use a new measure of volatility based on the first difference of quarterly growth rates, and a novel approach, exploiting a test for common features. We first test each series for structural change(s) in volatility, and then test for a common feature of a decrease in volatility between the volatility of output and volatility of potential causes of the Great Moderation for both the period prior to the Great Recession (2007:4) and the whole sample through 2010:4. When all the evidence is considered, structural changes in the economy, including increased globalization and improved inventory management, improved monetary policy, and good luck, all appear to have played a significant role, while financial market innovations are unlikely to be a cause of the Great Moderation. The second essay analyzes if the Great Moderation is one event internationally, common across countries, or multiple events. The Great Moderation has been identified in several advanced economies as a general decrease in the volatility of GDP growth, and it is still viewed as one time event. We use structural break test to date the onset of the Great Moderation in eleven developed countries and employ the test for common features in order to determine if the moderation in volatility is common across countries (one event), or if it is more than one event. While we establish that all of the countries studied display a break dating from the late 1970s to mid- 1980s and early 1990s, we discover the moderation of volatility evident in international data is neither concurrent, nor of similar magnitude. We can use this new information to enlighten our search for the cause(s) of the Great Moderation by both eliminating potential causes and increasing the ability to distinguish between causality and coincidence.
Author: Michael W. Clark Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation is a collection of two essays on the macroeconomic volatility and the Great Moderation. The first essay examines the causes of the Great Moderation in United States, while the second essay takes an international approach in examining if the Great Moderation was one or multiple events for the industrialized countries. The first essay analyzes the causes of the large decline in aggregate volatility for the United States, phenomenon known as the Great Moderation, one of the most widely recognized characteristics of the modern U.S. economy. However, the literature found no consensus on what caused it. In order to uncover the causes of the Great Moderation we use a new measure of volatility based on the first difference of quarterly growth rates, and a novel approach, exploiting a test for common features. We first test each series for structural change(s) in volatility, and then test for a common feature of a decrease in volatility between the volatility of output and volatility of potential causes of the Great Moderation for both the period prior to the Great Recession (2007:4) and the whole sample through 2010:4. When all the evidence is considered, structural changes in the economy, including increased globalization and improved inventory management, improved monetary policy, and good luck, all appear to have played a significant role, while financial market innovations are unlikely to be a cause of the Great Moderation. The second essay analyzes if the Great Moderation is one event internationally, common across countries, or multiple events. The Great Moderation has been identified in several advanced economies as a general decrease in the volatility of GDP growth, and it is still viewed as one time event. We use structural break test to date the onset of the Great Moderation in eleven developed countries and employ the test for common features in order to determine if the moderation in volatility is common across countries (one event), or if it is more than one event. While we establish that all of the countries studied display a break dating from the late 1970s to mid- 1980s and early 1990s, we discover the moderation of volatility evident in international data is neither concurrent, nor of similar magnitude. We can use this new information to enlighten our search for the cause(s) of the Great Moderation by both eliminating potential causes and increasing the ability to distinguish between causality and coincidence.
Author: Claudio E. Raddatz Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 150
Book Description
This thesis consists of three empirical essays on different aspects of macroeconomic volatility. The first essay provides evidence of a causal and economically important relation between financial development and macroeconomic volatility by looking at the effect of financial development in the volatility of sectors with different liquidity needs. The results show that sectors with high liquidity needs are relatively more volatile in financially underdeveloped countries. These sectoral effects of financial underdevelopment can significantly increase macroeconomic volatility, despite the fact that financial underdevelopment also induces countries to move away from sectors with high liquidity needs. The second essay explores the causes of the decline in U.S. manufacturing volatility during the last two decades. The essay presents and estimates a model that decomposes the changes in the volatilities of manufacturing sectors among the effects of output composition, aggregate shocks, sectoral shocks, and sectoral linkages. The results show that changes in the volatility of aggregate shocks and their impact across sectors account for the most of the decline in U.S. manufacturing volatility. A smaller role is played by changes in the volatility of sectoral shocks and in the intensity of sectoral linkages. The third essay analyzes both the sectoral effects of monetary policy and the role that monetary policy plays in the transmission of sectoral shocks. Our methodology is applied to the case of the U.S., finding considerable differences in the response of different sectors to monetary policy. The results also show that monetary policy is an important source of sectoral transfers: a shock to Equipment-and-Software Investment, naturally identified with the high-tech crises, induces a monetary policy response that generates a temporary boom in Residential Investment and Consumption of Durables, but which has almost no effect on the high-tech sector.
Author: Hugo Vega Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This thesis contains three essays that employ macroeconomic theory to study the implications of volatility, financial frictions and reserve requirements. The first essay uses an imperfect information model where agents solve a signal extraction problem to study the effect of volatility on the economy. A real business cycle model where the agent faces imperfect information regarding productivity is used to address the question. The main finding is that the variance of the productivity process components has a small negative short run impact on the economy's real variables. However, imperfect information dampens the effects of volatility associated to permanent components of productivity and amplifies the effects of volatility associated to transitory components. The second essay presents a partial equilibrium characterization of the credit market in an economy with partial financial dollarization. Financial frictions (costly state verification and banking regulation restrictions), are introduced and their impact on lending and deposit interest rates denominated in domestic and foreign currency studied. The analysis shows that reserve requirements act as a tax that leads banks to decrease deposit rates, while the wedge between foreign and domestic currency lending rates is decreasing in exchange rate volatility and increasing in the degree of correlation between entrepreneurs' returns and the exchange rate. The third essay introduces an interbank market with two types of private banks and a central bank into a New-Keynesian DSGE model. The model is used to analyse the general equilibrium effects of changes to reserve requirements, while the central bank follows a Taylor rule to set the policy interest rate. The paper shows that changes to reserve requirements have similar effects to interest rate hikes and that both monetary policy tools can be used jointly in order to avoid big swings in the policy rate or a zero bound.
Author: Hongyan Zhao Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 202
Book Description
This dissertation consists of three essays in macroeconomics. The first one essay discusses the reasons of Chinese huge foreign reserves holdings. It contributes to the literature of sudden stops, precautionary saving and foreign assets holdings. In the second essay, I study the price volatility of commodities and manufactured goods. I measure the price volatility of each individual goods but not on the aggregated level and therefore the results complete the related study. The third essay explores the correlation between the relative volatility of output to money stock and financial development. It extends the application of financial accelerator model. In the first essay, I address the question of China's extraordinary economic growth during the last decade and huge magnitude of foreign reserves holdings. The coexistence of fast economic growth and net capital outflow presents a puzzle to the conventional wisdom that developing countries should borrow from abroad. This paper develops a two-sector DSGE model to quantify the contribution of precautionary saving motivation against economic sudden stops. The risk of sudden stops comes from the lagged financial reforms in China, in which banks continue to support inefficient state-owned enterprises, while the more productive private firms are subject to strong discrimination in credit market, and face the endogenous collateral constraints. When the private sector is small, the impact on aggregate output of binding credit constraints is limited. However, as the output share of private sector increases, the negative effect of financial frictions on private firms grows, and it is more likely to trigger a nation-wide economic sudden stop. Thus, the precautionary savings rise and the demand for foreign assets also increases. Our calibration exercise based on Chinese macro data shows that 25 percent of foreign reserves can be accounted for by the rising probability of sudden stops. The second essay studies the relative volatility of commodity prices with a large dataset of monthly prices observed in international trade data from the United States over the period 2002 to 2011. The conventional wisdom in academia and policy circles is that primary commodity prices are more volatile than those of manufactured products, although most existing studies do not measure the relative volatility of prices of individual goods or commodities. The literature tends to focus on trends in the evolution and volatility of ratios of price indexes composed of multiple commodities and products. This approach can be misleading. The evidence presented here suggests that, on average, prices of individual primary commodities are less volatile than those of individual manufactured goods. Furthermore, robustness tests suggest that these results are not likely to be due to alternative product classification choices, differences in product exit rates, measurement errors in the trade data, or the level of aggregation of the trade data. Hence the explanation must be found in the realm of economics, rather than measurement. However, the challenges of managing terms of trade volatility in developing countries with concentrated export baskets remain. The third essay tries to understand why the relative volatility of nominal output to money stock is negatively related to countries' financial development level from cross-country evidence. In the paper I modify Bernanke et al. (1999)'s financial accelerator model by introducing the classic money demand function. The calibration to US data shows that the model is able to replicate this empirical pattern quite well. Given the same monetary shocks, countries with poorer financial system have larger output volatility due to the stronger effect of financial accelerator mechanism.
Author: Tim Bollerslev Publisher: OUP Oxford ISBN: 0191572195 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 432
Book Description
Robert Engle received the Nobel Prize for Economics in 2003 for his work in time series econometrics. This book contains 16 original research contributions by some the leading academic researchers in the fields of time series econometrics, forecasting, volatility modelling, financial econometrics and urban economics, along with historical perspectives related to field of time series econometrics more generally. Engle's Nobel Prize citation focuses on his path-breaking work on autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) and the profound effect that this work has had on the field of financial econometrics. Several of the chapters focus on conditional heteroskedasticity, and develop the ideas of Engle's Nobel Prize winning work. Engle's work has had its most profound effect on the modelling of financial variables and several of the chapters use newly developed time series methods to study the behavior of financial variables. Each of the 16 chapters may be read in isolation, but they all importantly build on and relate to the seminal work by Nobel Laureate Robert F. Engle.
Author: Mark Watson Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0199549494 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 432
Book Description
A volume that celebrates and develops the work of Nobel Laureate Robert Engle, it includes original contributions from some of the world's leading econometricians that further Engle's work in time series economics
Author: Michael W. Clark
Author: Michael W. Clark
Author: Claudio E. Raddatz
Author: Jeta Menkulasi
Author: Olivier Pierre Marie Loisel
Author: Wei-Choun Yu
Author: Hugo Vega
Author: Osvaldo Pericon Enriquez
Author: Hongyan Zhao
Author: Tim Bollerslev
Author: Mark Watson