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Author: Ray S. Y. Choy Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform ISBN: 9781535326391 Category : Languages : en Pages : 238
Book Description
Financial markets are unpredictable, and so are bonds despite their status as "fixed income" assets. Profiting from such markets requires an edge, a deeper comprehension and fresh ideas. This book provides a chronological narrative of the global fixed income markets from 2012 to 2015, offering pragmatic and unique perspectives for investment analysts, macro-oriented fund managers, academic researchers and students of financial economics.
Author: Ray S. Y. Choy Publisher: Createspace Independent Publishing Platform ISBN: 9781535326391 Category : Languages : en Pages : 238
Book Description
Financial markets are unpredictable, and so are bonds despite their status as "fixed income" assets. Profiting from such markets requires an edge, a deeper comprehension and fresh ideas. This book provides a chronological narrative of the global fixed income markets from 2012 to 2015, offering pragmatic and unique perspectives for investment analysts, macro-oriented fund managers, academic researchers and students of financial economics.
Author: Su Huang Publisher: ISBN: 9781267923332 Category : Languages : en Pages : 168
Book Description
This dissertation focuses on the municipal bond market. Chapter 1 first introduces the classification of municipal bonds, then summarizes the literature that talk about the determinants of municipal bond yields, and finally classifies the determinants into three classes: the economic status of the state where the bond is issued, the demographic characteristics of the state, and the financial status of the state or the local government where the bond is issued. Chapter 2 introduces two nonparametric econometric techniques, including nonparametric regressions and gradient boosting. Compared with traditional ordinary least square methods, these two techniques can help us capture both nonlinearity and potential random interactions among key determinants in the analysis of municipal bond yields. Chapter 3 performs a comprehensive analysis on the determinants of general obligation municipal bond yields and examines the impact of the recent financial crisis on the underlying relations. A systematic comparison of the relations before and after the 2008 financial crisis shows that the economic and financial health of local governments has become markedly more diverse since the crisis began. The relation between the municipal bond yields and the economic and financial health of the local governments has also become stronger because of the larger differentiation among the local governments and hence larger signal to noise ratio, as well as closer scrutiny by market participants on the economic fundamentals of municipal governments. Chapter 3 also provides a new prediction framework and shows that accommodating nonlinearities and random interaction effects can significantly enhance the predictive performance on the municipal bond yields.
Author: Hee Su Roh Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
With quantitative easing (QE), central banks buy long-term government bonds to lower long-term interest rates. QE removes from the market both the investment risk associated with ownership of the bonds and also the transaction services conveyed by these bonds, which include facilitating the matching of buyers and sellers in the bond market. To the extent that it lends its stock of bonds back to market participants, a central bank replaces these transaction services. In contrast, by not lending its bonds, the central bank further lowers long-term rates by increasing the scarcity of these transaction services. This amplification of the impact of QE on long-term rates through reduced bond lending allows the European Central Bank to achieve its QE rate objective more easily because the alternative of even greater purchases of bonds could be politically contentious.
Author: Moorad Choudhry Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0470976284 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 486
Book Description
The bond markets are a vital part of the world economy. The fourth edition of Professor Moorad Choudhry's benchmark reference text An Introduction to Bond Markets brings readers up to date with latest developments and market practice, including the impact of the financial crisis and issues of relevance for investors. This book offers a detailed yet accessible look at bond instruments, and is aimed specifically at newcomers to the market or those unfamiliar with modern fixed income products. The author capitalises on his wealth of experience in the fixed income markets to present this concise yet in-depth coverage of bonds and associated derivatives. Topics covered include: Bond pricing and yield Duration and convexity Eurobonds and convertible bonds Structured finance securities Interest-rate derivatives Credit derivatives Relative value trading Related topics such as the money markets and principles of risk management are also introduced as necessary background for students and practitioners. The book is essential reading for all those who require an introduction to the financial markets.
Author: James J. Forest Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation demonstrates the use of empirical techniques for dealing with modeling issues that arise when analyzing announcement effects in fixed income markets. It describes empirical challenges in achieving unbiased and efficient parameter estimates and shows the importance of modelling a wide range of macroeconomic announcement effects to avoid omitted variable bias. Employing techniques common in Macroeconomics, financial market researchers are better able to provide meaningful results. In "The Effect of Macroeconomic Announcements on Credit Markets: An Autometric General-to-Specific Analysis of the Greenspan Era," I show that a congruent, parsimonious, encompassing model discovered using David Hendry's econometric modelling approach overcomes the many inadequacies of the typical static models of US Treasury returns. The typical specification tends to fail most specification tests. Results suggest a place for general-to-specific modelling in financial economics, a place where it has only recently been employed. In "A High-Frequency Analysis of Trading Activity in the Corporate Bond Market: Macro Announcements or Seasonality?" Here we explore whether factors that drive trading activity of US corporate bond market. Our main findings are that the thinly-traded market for corporate bonds is less affected by surprises in individual economic reports and that the market is dominated by day-of-week and time-of-day affects. We find that, unlike daily returns on the SandP 500, corporate bonds are sensitive to surprises in both labor market and inflation data. Trading activity is affected by absolute surprises in core CPI and nonfarm payrolls, but neither core PPI nor jobless claims affect order flow. Perhaps most interesting, however, is the presence of "behavioral seasonal" effects associated with the onset and incidence of seasonal affective disorder. This "winter blues" effect has been seen affecting activity in equity markets by Kamstra, M. J., L. A. Kramer and M. D. Levi (American Economic Review; 2000, 2003). In "The Effect of Treasury Auction Results on Interest Rates: The 1990s Experience," I examine the response of U.S. Treasury returns to auction announcements. Rate changes differ significantly on auction days for one-year bills. Surprises in the release of bid-to-cover ratios and noncompetitive bidding affect Treasury 30-year returns significantly. Other maturities, however, are relatively unaffected. The results complement the study by Lou, Yan and Zhang (2013) and show the benefits of controlling macroeconomic announcements when analyzing market responses to auctions.
Author: Sean Mikel Wilkoff Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 342
Book Description
The municipal bond market is a financial market that does not draw much attention from academics, researchers, the government or practitioners. However, that changed recently when the largest recession since the Great Depression impacted the U.S. economy. Now everyone is struggling to understand two major questions: 1) How do we mark to market bonds in illiquid markets? and 2) Why are 50% of new issues insured in a market that has the lowest default rate of any bond market other than the treasury market? This dissertation examines those questions in three parts. The first part, The Effect of Insurance on Municipal Bond Yields, studies the difference between insured and uninsured municipal bond yields. I find that although some of that difference is attributable to the effect of insurance, another channel comes from self selection to insure -- municipalities that choose to insure differ significantly from municipalities who choose not to insure. Without accounting for the latter self selection the insurance benefit appears undervalued. By focusing on municipalities with both outstanding insured and uninsured bonds (mixed municipalities), I identify that in the pre-crisis period insurance for such municipalities reduces municipal bond yields by 8 basis points. But analysis of homogeneous municipalities reveals the self selection effect raises yields by 6 basis points. However, during the recent financial crisis, insurance continued to lower yields by 8 bps, whereas the self selection effect increased yields by 18 basis points. Thus, my work explains the recent initially puzzling phenomenon when insured yields rose above uninsured yields. The second part, The Effect of Insurance on Liqudity, examines liquidity in the municipal bond market during the recent financial crisis. I analyze the effects of insurance on liquidity for municipal bonds and estimate how the effects of insurance change when the insurers face a loss of capital and rating downgrades. I measure liquidity in the three ways most suited for illiquid markets: the Amihud measure, Roll's bid-ask measure, and turnover. By all three measures, both before and after the financial crisis, bonds with insurance are less liquid than bonds without insurance. I also find that the liquidity of bonds with insurance decreases over the financial crisis. These findings indicate that insurance does not improve liquidity. The third part, A Municipal Bond Market Index Based on a Repeat Sales Methodology, introduces a repeat sales methodology to create an index for the municipal bond market based on transactional prices, because the current indices are based on estimated bond prices. The repeat sales methodology can calculate an index for any municipal bond characteristic. I create and analyze indices for the municipal bond market and separate indices by rating, maturity, and characteristics such as insurance and bond type (i.e. General Obligation or Revenue). Repeat sales methodology is based on the assumption that characteristics of the bond do not change over time which means the movements in bond prices are due to evolving market conditions. I compare the repeat sales indices with the existing municipal bond indices and find the repeat sales indices highly correlated with the current indices with a correlation of .8.
Author: Wenbin Wu Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 93
Book Description
Chapter 1 contributes to the recent debate about the importance of temporary price changes for monetary policy transmission. Although sales occur very frequently, macroeconomists often filter them out because sales are not responsive to economic shocks. Using micro data underlying CPI, I demonstrate that after sales, the price index of durables goes down gradually, and that the aggregation of sales of durable goods have a significant impact on the aggregate inflation. However, sales of nondurables--the focus of previous studies--do not show these results. To study the impact of sales, I then propose a two-sector menu-cost model with the feature of sales. The model is able to match the pattern of sales and moments in the micro data. By contrast, failing to account for temporary sales in a menu-cost model would increase the output effect by 73%, and the Calvo model calibrated to the frequency of regular price changes triples the output effect. Chapter 2 examines the impact of unconventional monetary policies on the stock market when the short-term nominal interest rate is stuck at the zero lower bound. Unconventional monetary policies appear to have significant effects on stock prices and the effects differ across stocks. In agreement with existing credit channel theories, I find that firms subject to financial constraints react more strongly to unconventional monetary policy shocks (especially large-scale asset purchases) than do less constrained firms. My results imply that the credit channel is as important as the interest rate channel in the transmission of unconventional monetary policies at the zero lower bound. Chapter 3 investigates the time-varying effects of monetary policy shocks on financial markets. I show that the corporate bond market is highly responsive to monetary policy shocks throughout 2000-2012, implying a high pass-through of policy-induced movements in Treasury yields to private yields even during the zero lower bound period. While the long-term Treasury bond market is highly sensitive to monetary policy shocks throughout almost the entire sample, the short-term Treasury bond market is severely constrained by the zero lower bound. The stock market is less responsive from 2008 to 2010, but the responsiveness bounces back rapidly in 2011.
Author: Ms.Diana Ayala Pena Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513539205 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
This paper studies the determinants of shifts in debt composition among EM non-financial corporates. We show that institutions and macro fundamentals create an enabling environment for bond market development. During the recent boom episode, however, global cyclical factors accounted for most of the variation of bond shares in total corporate debt. The sensitivity to global factors appears to vary with relative bond market size—which we interpret to be associated with liquidity and easy entry and exit—rather than local fundamentals. Foreign bank linkages help explain why bond markets increasingly substituted for banks in channeling liquidity to EMs. Our results highlight the risk of capital flow reversal in EMs that benefited from the upturn in the global financial cycle mostly due to their liquid markets rather than strong fundamentals.
Author: Klaus Hammes Publisher: Department of Economics School of Economics and Commercial Law Go ISBN: Category : Capital investments Languages : en Pages : 188
Author: Ray S. Y. Choy
Author: Ray S. Y. Choy
Author: Su Huang
Author: Hendrik Aaldrik Jan Koster
Author: Hee Su Roh
Author: Moorad Choudhry
Author: James J. Forest
Author: Sean Mikel Wilkoff
Author: Wenbin Wu
Author: Ms.Diana Ayala Pena
Author: Klaus Hammes