Author: Enrique AlberolaPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37
Book Description
Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the New EU Members
Author: Enrique AlberolaEquilibrium Exchange Rate Models, the Euro and the 2004 Expansion of the EU
Author: Isabell KoskePublisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 212
Book Description
Since the launch of the euro in 1999, researchers, policy makers, and business analysts have put great interest in the evolution of the external value of the euro. In 2004 the European Monetary Union expanded its membership with the accession of ten countries from central and eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. As these countries are committed to adopt the euro as soon as they fulfill the Maastricht criteria, knowing their currencies' equilibrium value is of great policy interest. This study addresses these questions by deriving equilibrium exchange rate paths for the euro and for the currencies of the new EU member countries. Specifically, one part investigates in how far variations in seven bilateral nominal euro exchange rates can be explained by monetary factors and then estimates the equilibrium path of the real effective exchange rate of the euro based on the NATREX approach. The final chapters derive equilibrium exchange rate paths for the currencies of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, and the three Baltic countries using a small country version of the NATREX model.
Sustainable Real Exchange Rates in the New Eu Member States
Author: Ms.Katerina SmídkováPublisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455205281
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25
Book Description
The Great Recession affected export and import patterns in our sample countries, and these changes, coupled with a more volatile external environment, have profound impact on our estimates of real exchange rate misalignments and projections of sustainable real exchange rates. We find that real misalignments in several countries with pegged exchange rates and excessive external liabilities widened relative to earlier estimates. While countries with balanced net trade positions are expected to continue to experience appreciation during 2010-2014, several currencies are likely to require real depreciation to maintain sustainable net external debt. Our estimates point to somewhat larger disequilibria than those of IMF country teams, however, any estimates of equilibrium exchange rates are subject to sizable uncertainty.
Equilibrium Exchange Rates in the New EU Members
Author: Enrique AlberolaEquilibrium Exchange Rates of Central and Eastern European Countries on the Road to the European Monetary Union
Author: Jörg RahnPublisher: Peter Lang Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204
Book Description
The upcoming enlargement of the European Monetary Union involves the selection of appropriate reference rates at which the exchange rates of the accession countries will be fixed against the euro in order to avoid economic distortions as consequences of serious exchange rate misalignments. Determination of an exchange rate that is neither undervalued nor overvalued raises the issue of equilibrium exchange rates. Based on time series as well as panel estimation techniques three different concepts - BEER, PEER and PPP - are applied in this study to calculate equilibrium exchange rate levels for ten Central and Eastern European countries. The results indicate significant real misalignments in a number of accession countries.
Are Exchange Rates Less Important for Trade in a More Globalized World?
Author: Boris FiseraPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
We evaluate the effect of exchange rate misalignments on the balance of trade and the role that global value chain participation plays in this effect for 11 new European Union member states. Using heterogeneous panel cointegration methods, we first estimate the real equilibrium exchange rate and detect episodes of currency misalignment. We find asymmetric effects of real currency misalignments: overvaluation has a negative effect, but undervaluation has no effect on the trade balance. Additionally, we find that global value chain participation weakens the effect of currency misalignments on the balance of trade. Therefore, our results suggest that globalization reduces the role of exchange rates in stimulating the domestic economy.
Estimating Equilibrium Exchange Rates for the New Member Countries of the European Union
Author: Anika HollerPublisher:
ISBN: 9783938369487
Category :
Languages : de
Pages : 52
Book Description
EMU, Getting the End Game Right
Author: David K. H. BeggPublisher: Centre for Economic Policy Research
ISBN: 9781898128267
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 102
Book Description
Written by a team of distinguished European academics, this report looks at the final stage of Europe's transition to a monetary union.
Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of EU Accession Countries Against the Euro
Author: Equilibrium Exchange Rates in Central and Eastern Europe
Author: Balázs ÉgertPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
This paper sets out to analyse the ever-growing literature on equilibrium exchange rates in the new EU member states of Central and Eastern Europe in a quantitative manner using meta-regression analysis. We study the extent to which the estimated real misalignments reported in the literature depend on the underlying theoretical approach (Balassa-Samuelson effect, Behavioural Equilibrium Exchange Rate, Fundamental Equilibrium Exchange Rate) and on other characteristics of the individual studies. We also seek to explore whether we can gain more insight from the literature regarding what determines the size and, perhaps more importantly, the sign of the estimated coefficient of the productivity variable and of two other variables commonly included in real exchange rate determination equations, notably net foreign assets and openness.