Empirical Estimates of Changing Inflation Dynamics PDF Download

Author: Jeffrey C. Fuhrer
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic forecasting
Languages : en
Pages : 52

View

Book Description

Author: Abdullah Almounsor
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455201278
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

View

Book Description
Yemen has had a high and volatile rate of inflation in recent years. This paper studies the underlying determinants of inflation dynamics in Yemen using three different approaches: (i) a single equation model, (ii) a Structural Vector Autoregression Model, and (iii) a Vector Error Correction Model. The outcomes suggest that inflation dynamics in Yemen are driven by international price shocks, exchange rate depreciation, domestic demand shocks, and monetary innovations. The impact of international prices and exchange rate depreciation indicate a significant pass-through of import prices. In the short run, external shocks of international prices and the exchange rate account for most variations in inflation, but domestic shocks to money supply and domestic demand explain larger variations in the medium term.

Author: Peter J. N. Sinclair
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1135179778
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 402

View

Book Description
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.

Author: Christopher Lancier
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

View

Book Description

Author: Luca Dedola
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789289961509
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

View

Book Description
This paper analyses the implications of the evidence on micro price setting gathered by Price-setting Microdata Analysis Network (PRISMA) for inflation dynamics and monetary policy, relying on calibrated models and direct empirical evidence. According to models calibrated to the euro area micro evidence in Gautier et al. (2022, 2023), infrequent price changes and moderate state dependence in price setting should result in a meaningful Phillips curve in the euro area. Empirical estimates of the Phillips curve during the low-inflation period confirm previous findings of a relatively flat but stable slope. This estimated flat slope reflects both infrequent and subdued price adjustment in response to aggregate shocks, i.e. the presence of nominal and real rigidities. Model-based simulations show that, due to non-linearities in price setting, changes in trend inflation above 5-6% would have significant effects on the euro area Phillips curve. Similarly, shocks to nominal costs larger than 15% would result in non-linear effects on inflation dynamics in calibrated models. In line with these simulations, recent micro evidence suggests that the return of higher and more volatile inflation seems to be associated with higher frequencies of price changes, mainly because the frequency of price increases rises with the level and volatility of inflation.

Author: Mahsa Agha Gholizadeh
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781321991352
Category : Inflation (Finance)
Languages : en
Pages : 201

View

Book Description
This dissertation investigates the possibility that monetary policy shocks have supply-side or "cost-channel" effects as well as demand-side effects. This dissertation specifically attempts to shed more light on the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to inflation dynamics and price-cost margins (PCMs). During a time of rising short-term interest rates, there is often discussion of rising inventory costs and deterioration of firms' balance sheets, along with the possibility of firms passing these higher costs along to consumers in the form of higher markups.

Author: Mr. Kangni R Kpodar
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616356154
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

View

Book Description
This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Author: Ms.Rina Bhattacharya
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475554737
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 22

View

Book Description
This paper provides an overview of inflation developments in Vietnam in the years following the doi moi reforms, and uses empirical analysis to answer two key questions: (i) what are the key drivers of inflation in Vietnam, and what role does monetary policy play? and (ii) why has inflation in Vietnam been persistently higher than in most other emerging market economies in the region? It focuses on understanding the monetary policy transmission mechanism in Vietnam, and in understanding the extent to which monetary policy can explain why inflation in Vietnam has been higher than in other Asian emerging markets over the past decade.

Author: Todd E. Clark
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

View

Book Description
This paper uses a detailed literature review and an empirical analysis of three models to assess the links among inflation and survey measures of long- and short-term expectations. In the first approach, we jointly estimate a model of inflation, survey expectations and monetary policy, where each is a function of a common time-varying inflation trend. In the estimates, long-term expectations track closely the unobserved trend that is an important factor in inflation dynamics, implying that changes in long-run expectations can lead to persistent movements in inflation. In the second approach, we estimate a time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility. This model relaxes the cross-equation and constant parameter restrictions from the first model. Impulse response analysis shows a relatively stable relationship between inflation and survey measures of inflation, although with some modest changes consistent with improved anchoring of long-term expectations. Finally, we rely on a conventional VAR framework incorporating several macroeconomic variables, including both short- and long-term measures of expected inflation. In these estimates, shocks to either measure of expectations lead to a rise in the other measure and some limited pass-through to inflation. Shocks to inflation cause both short- and long-term expectations to rise. Other factors such as monetary policy, economic activity, and food price inflation also affect expectations and inflation.

Author: Emanuele Franceschi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

View

Book Description
The dissertation focuses on the interplay of monetary policy, liquidity, and inflation dynamics from an empirical and theoritical point of view. The first chapter empirically investigates the role of financial liquidity in the monetary policy history of the US Federal Reserve Bank, It combines real-time data and Markov switching models to reproduce the Fed's information set and studies regime changes. A liquidity augmented Taylor rule fits well the US data, but its estimates also contrasts the consensus on destabilising passive policy stances: passive regimes coexists with moderate inflation after controlling for liquidity. The second chapter extends a simple NKDSGE model to account for liquid assets. The central bank sets total nominal liquidity and targets interest rates on liquid assets. Passive reactions to expected inflation do not trigger indeterminacy, but entail more persistent and volatile inflation. Moreover, passive policies slow down the recovery from a recession. The third chapter investigates how inflation persistence varied over time in the US macroeconomy. It adapts deep-learning methods besides more standard ones, to address this question, and consistently finds the inflation inertia has significantly decreased from its peak around 1995. Inflation currently behaves similarly to a memoryless white noise. Policy changes, international trade, or volatile commodities do not seem to determine such decrease, which predates all of those.