Empirical Asset Pricing with Multi-period Disaster Risk PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Empirical Asset Pricing with Multi-period Disaster Risk PDF full book. Access full book title Empirical Asset Pricing with Multi-period Disaster Risk by Jantje Sönksen. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Jantje Sönksen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
We propose a simulation-based strategy to estimate and empirically assess a class of asset pricing models that account for rare but severe consumption contractions that can extend over multiple periods. Our approach expands the scope of prevalent calibration studies and tackles the inherent sample selection problem associated with measuring the effect of rare disaster risk on asset prices. An analysis based on postwar U.S. and historical multi-country panel data yields estimates of investor preference parameters that are economically plausible and robust with respect to alternative specifications. The estimated model withstands tests of validity; the model-implied key financial indicators and timing premium all have reasonable magnitudes. These findings suggest that the rare disaster hypothesis can help restore the nexus between the real economy and financial markets when allowing for multi-period disaster events.Our methodological contribution is a new econometric framework for empirical asset pricing with rare disaster risk.
Author: Jantje Sönksen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
We propose a simulation-based strategy to estimate and empirically assess a class of asset pricing models that account for rare but severe consumption contractions that can extend over multiple periods. Our approach expands the scope of prevalent calibration studies and tackles the inherent sample selection problem associated with measuring the effect of rare disaster risk on asset prices. An analysis based on postwar U.S. and historical multi-country panel data yields estimates of investor preference parameters that are economically plausible and robust with respect to alternative specifications. The estimated model withstands tests of validity; the model-implied key financial indicators and timing premium all have reasonable magnitudes. These findings suggest that the rare disaster hypothesis can help restore the nexus between the real economy and financial markets when allowing for multi-period disaster events.Our methodological contribution is a new econometric framework for empirical asset pricing with rare disaster risk.
Author: Jantje Sönksen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
According to the rare disaster hypothesis, the extraordinary mean excess returns on U.S. equity portfolios during the postwar period resulted because investors ex ante demanded a compensation for possibly disastrous but very unlikely risks that they ex post did not incur. Empirical tests of the rare disaster hypothesis are scarce, and the frequently used assumption that disasters shrink to one-period events is under suspicion of being the driving force behind the hypothesis' success in calibrations. This study proposes a simulation-based approach to estimate an asset pricing model that accounts for multi-period disasters, partial government defaults, and recursive investor preferences. The empirical results corroborate that the rare disaster hypothesis helps to restore the nexus between the real economy and financial markets that is implied by the consumption-based asset pricing paradigm. The estimates of the subjective discount factor, relative risk aversion, and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution are economically reasonable, rather precise, and robust with respect to alternative model specifications. Moreover, the model-implied equity premium, mean T-bill return, and market Sharpe ratio are plausible and consistent with empirical data.
Author: Jantje Sönksen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 70
Book Description
This study proposes a novel approach to facilitate the estimation of the preference parameters of a two consumption good C-CAPM that accounts for multi-period disasters, partial government defaults, and the possible destruction of the stock of the durable good. The maximum likelihood estimation of the disaster process parameters requires a cross-country panel of historical consumption data and international business cycle dates. The estimation of the risk aversion coefficient and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) is facilitated by the simulated method of moments. The results show that the empirical equity premium can be explained with economically plausible and quite precise risk aversion and IES estimates. This conclusion withstands a battery of robustness checks.
Author: Amir Akbari Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
"This thesis explores the role of borrowing frictions, exchange rate risk, and intertemporal demand in stock prices across international financial markets. Specifically, I study how global asset prices are governed, considering the constraints and incentives that investors face when making investment decisions. The first essay adds a new dimension to the research on the dynamics of global market integration, providing an explanation for reversals in market integration via funding illiquidity. I show that when funding capital dries out, investors, unable to borrow and trade freely, fail to facilitate the integration process. Therefore, international asset prices during these periods are explained more by country-specific asset pricing factors than by global asset pricing factors. The second essay explores the role of exchange rate risk and intertemporal demand in international markets. These sources of risk are linked via the interest rate channel and are both likely proxies of the state variables that affect asset prices over time. We carefully disentangle the two risk factors and study the international equity market indices with multiple risk factors in a large cross-section through time. We show that the evidence of global pricing of risk crucially hinges on pooling assets with substantial cross-sectional variation. The third essay introduces a methodological innovation to study the dynamics of the compensation for the intertemporal risk in business cycles. Specifically, we contribute to the empirical asset pricing literature by studying the relative importance of prices of intertemporal risk during recessions, recoveries, and expansions." --
Author: Joachim Grammig Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The rare disaster hypothesis suggests that the extraordinarily high postwar U.S. equity premium resulted because investors ex ante demanded compensation for unlikely but calamitous risks that they happened not to incur. Although convincing in theory, empirical tests of the rare disaster explanation are scarce. We estimate a disaster-including consumption-based asset pricing model (CBM) using a combination of the simulated method of moments and bootstrapping. We consider several methodological alternatives that differ in the moment matches and the way to account for disasters in the simulated consumption growth and return series. Whichever specification is used, the estimated preference parameters are of an economically plausible size, and the estimation precision is much higher than in previous studies that use the canonical CBM. Our results thus provide empirical support for the rare disaster hypothesis, and help reconcile the nexus between real economy and financial markets implied by the consumption-based asset pricing paradigm.
Author: Wayne Ferson Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262039370 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 497
Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Bernd Meyer Publisher: Physica ISBN: 9783642586736 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 287
Book Description
In the mid-eighties Mehra and Prescott showed that the risk premium earned by American stocks cannot reasonably be explained by conventional capital market models. Using time additive utility, the observed risk pre mium can only be explained by unrealistically high risk aversion parameters. This phenomenon is well known as the equity premium puzzle. Shortly aft erwards it was also observed that the risk-free rate is too low relative to the observed risk premium. This essay is the first one to analyze these puzzles in the German capital market. It starts with a thorough discussion of the available theoretical mod els and then goes on to perform various empirical studies on the German capital market. After discussing natural properties of the pricing kernel by which future cash flows are translated into securities prices, various multi period equilibrium models are investigated for their implied pricing kernels. The starting point is a representative investor who optimizes his invest ment and consumption policy over time. One important implication of time additive utility is the identity of relative risk aversion and the inverse in tertemporal elasticity of substitution. Since this identity is at odds with reality, the essay goes on to discuss recursive preferences which violate the expected utility principle but allow to separate relative risk aversion and intertemporal elasticity of substitution.
Author: Joachim Grammig Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
We propose a simulated method of moments strategy to estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model (CBM) that accounts for the possibility of severe economic contractions, thereby providing a test of the rare disaster hypothesis and a re-evaluation of the empirical performance of the canonical CBM. Unlike in previous studies, the estimates of the investor preference parameters and the model-implied equity premium, mean risk-free rate, and market Sharpe ratio are economically plausible and precise. Accounting for rare disasters thus helps to restore the nexus between financial markets and the real economy that is implied by the CBM.
Author: Wayne Ferson Publisher: MIT Press ISBN: 0262351307 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 497
Book Description
An introduction to the theory and methods of empirical asset pricing, integrating classical foundations with recent developments. This book offers a comprehensive advanced introduction to asset pricing, the study of models for the prices and returns of various securities. The focus is empirical, emphasizing how the models relate to the data. The book offers a uniquely integrated treatment, combining classical foundations with more recent developments in the literature and relating some of the material to applications in investment management. It covers the theory of empirical asset pricing, the main empirical methods, and a range of applied topics. The book introduces the theory of empirical asset pricing through three main paradigms: mean variance analysis, stochastic discount factors, and beta pricing models. It describes empirical methods, beginning with the generalized method of moments (GMM) and viewing other methods as special cases of GMM; offers a comprehensive review of fund performance evaluation; and presents selected applied topics, including a substantial chapter on predictability in asset markets that covers predicting the level of returns, volatility and higher moments, and predicting cross-sectional differences in returns. Other chapters cover production-based asset pricing, long-run risk models, the Campbell-Shiller approximation, the debate on covariance versus characteristics, and the relation of volatility to the cross-section of stock returns. An extensive reference section captures the current state of the field. The book is intended for use by graduate students in finance and economics; it can also serve as a reference for professionals.
Author: Jantje Sönksen
Author: Jantje Sönksen
Author: Jantje Sönksen
Author: Jantje Sönksen
Author: Amir Akbari
Author: Joachim Grammig
Author: Wayne Ferson
Author: Bernd Meyer
Author: Joachim Grammig
Author: Xing Hu
Author: Wayne Ferson