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Author: Andreas Mitsutoshi Culbertson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 71
Book Description
Climate change poses a serious threat to Lake Erie, as global climate models (GCMs) project increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall in surrounding watersheds which may increase flow and nutrient loading into the lake. Quantifying these potential changes is necessary to develop management recommendations to preserve Lake Erie ecosystem services in the future. This study utilized the process-based SWAT hydrologic model and an ensemble of global climate models to study the potential effects IPCC RCP4.5 (mid-range) and RCP8.5 (high) emissions scenarios on the Maumee River discharge and nutrient loading rates through the 21st century. Generally, the impacts of climate change on flow, sediments and nutrients discharged from the Maumee River become more pronounced moving from the near- (2010-2039) to the mid- (2040-2069) and far-century (2070-2099). Increased winter temperatures are expected to result in fewer snowmelt events and greater infiltration, greatly reducing winter surface runoff, sediment, and phosphorus loading. Spring time (March-June) flow, which is highly correlated with Lake Erie harmful algal blooms (HABs), was projected to increase 4.4% (0.2%) in the near-century and 6.1% (12.1%) by the late-century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) due to increases in precipitation and reduction in plant stomatal conductance. These increases in flow are expected to result in increased spring sediment loading by 2.6 (0.4%) in the near-century and 8.0% (36.0%) by the late-century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Fall (September-November) discharge was greatly impacted by increased precipitation and projected early harvests, which resulted in prolonged periods of bare fields and susceptibility to erosion. Fall sediment increased 23.3% (17.1%) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) increased 17.9% (12.9%) in the near-century, continuing into the far-future, where sediment increased 40.7% (72.2%) and SRP increased 25.7 (43.1%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Because of increased plant growth and phosphorus uptake driven by elevated carbon dioxide levels, as well as reduced winter surface runoff, annual SRP decreased by 0.7% (3.7%) in the near-century and 11.2% (7.2%) by the far-century, and annual total phosphorus (TP) decreased by 4.0% (6.5%) in the near-century and 14.1% (6.0%) by the far-century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). These findings demonstrate that despite projected increases in flows and sediment yields, increased plant growth stimulated by elevated carbon dioxide levels may potentially cause reductions in Maumee River phosphorus loading during the 21st century.
Author: Andreas Mitsutoshi Culbertson Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 71
Book Description
Climate change poses a serious threat to Lake Erie, as global climate models (GCMs) project increases in the amount and intensity of rainfall in surrounding watersheds which may increase flow and nutrient loading into the lake. Quantifying these potential changes is necessary to develop management recommendations to preserve Lake Erie ecosystem services in the future. This study utilized the process-based SWAT hydrologic model and an ensemble of global climate models to study the potential effects IPCC RCP4.5 (mid-range) and RCP8.5 (high) emissions scenarios on the Maumee River discharge and nutrient loading rates through the 21st century. Generally, the impacts of climate change on flow, sediments and nutrients discharged from the Maumee River become more pronounced moving from the near- (2010-2039) to the mid- (2040-2069) and far-century (2070-2099). Increased winter temperatures are expected to result in fewer snowmelt events and greater infiltration, greatly reducing winter surface runoff, sediment, and phosphorus loading. Spring time (March-June) flow, which is highly correlated with Lake Erie harmful algal blooms (HABs), was projected to increase 4.4% (0.2%) in the near-century and 6.1% (12.1%) by the late-century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) due to increases in precipitation and reduction in plant stomatal conductance. These increases in flow are expected to result in increased spring sediment loading by 2.6 (0.4%) in the near-century and 8.0% (36.0%) by the late-century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Fall (September-November) discharge was greatly impacted by increased precipitation and projected early harvests, which resulted in prolonged periods of bare fields and susceptibility to erosion. Fall sediment increased 23.3% (17.1%) and soluble reactive phosphorus (SRP) increased 17.9% (12.9%) in the near-century, continuing into the far-future, where sediment increased 40.7% (72.2%) and SRP increased 25.7 (43.1%) under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). Because of increased plant growth and phosphorus uptake driven by elevated carbon dioxide levels, as well as reduced winter surface runoff, annual SRP decreased by 0.7% (3.7%) in the near-century and 11.2% (7.2%) by the far-century, and annual total phosphorus (TP) decreased by 4.0% (6.5%) in the near-century and 14.1% (6.0%) by the far-century under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5). These findings demonstrate that despite projected increases in flows and sediment yields, increased plant growth stimulated by elevated carbon dioxide levels may potentially cause reductions in Maumee River phosphorus loading during the 21st century.
Author: Saeid Eslamian Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1040020380 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 400
Book Description
Climate change not only involves rising temperatures but it can also alter the hydro-meteorological parameters of a region and the corresponding changes emerging in the various biotic or abiotic environmental features. One of the results of climate change has been the impact on the sediment yield and its transport. These changes have implications for various other environmental components, particularly soils, water bodies, water quality, land productivity, sedimentation processes, glacier dynamics, and risk management strategies to name a few. This volume provides an overview of the fundamental processes and impacts of climate change on river basin management and examines issues related to soil erosion, sedimentation, and contaminants, as well as rainfall-runoff modeling and flood mitigation strategies. It also includes coverage of climate change fundamentals as well as chapters on related global treaties and policies.
Author: Saeid Eslamian Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1040020399 Category : Technology & Engineering Languages : en Pages : 359
Book Description
Climate change not only involves rising temperatures but it can also alter the hydro-meteorological parameters of a region and the corresponding changes emerging in the various biotic or abiotic environmental features. One of the results of climate change has been the impact on the sediment yield and its transport. These changes have implications for various other environmental components, particularly soils, water bodies, water quality, land productivity, sedimentation processes, glacier dynamics, and risk management strategies to name a few. This volume provides an examination of the technological approaches to water management, and the practical applications for remote sensing, satellite image processing, and advanced statistical methods, all which can be utilized to predict, monitor, and manage the effects of climate change on river basins.
Author: Christina Anagnostopoulou Publisher: MDPI ISBN: 303650110X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 142
Book Description
- Water resources management should be assessed under climate change conditions, as historic data cannot replicate future climatic conditions. - Climate change impacts on water resources are bound to affect all water uses, i.e., irrigated agriculture, domestic and industrial water supply, hydropower generation, and environmental flow (of streams and rivers) and water level (of lakes). - Bottom-up approaches, i.e., the forcing of hydrologic simulation models with climate change models’ outputs, are the most common engineering practices and considered as climate-resilient water management approaches. - Hydrologic simulations forced by climate change scenarios derived from regional climate models (RCMs) can provide accurate assessments of the future water regime at basin scales. - Irrigated agriculture requires special attention as it is the principal water consumer and alterations of both precipitation and temperature patterns will directly affect agriculture yields and incomes. - Integrated water resources management (IWRM) requires multidisciplinary and interdisciplinary approaches, with climate change to be an emerging cornerstone in the IWRM concept.
Author: Haley Ann Kujawa Publisher: ISBN: Category : Eutrophication Languages : en Pages : 130
Book Description
Eutrophication threatens water quality and livelihoods globally. In Lake Erie, eutrophication and harmful algal bloom issues have persisted since the 1990s despite efforts to improve water quality. Phosphorus delivered to Lake Erie from the surrounding watersheds has been identified as the main limiting nutrient in harmful algal blooms, and therefore the focus of current water quality management is to reduce phosphorus inputs from Lake Erie’s watersheds. The current Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement calls for a 40% reduction in phosphorus input to Lake Erie compared to 2008 levels. The Maumee River Watershed covers much of the land draining to western Lake Erie and is therefore the largest contributor of phosphorus that drives harmful algal blooms. In the Maumee River Watershed, the majority of phosphorus comes from non-point source inputs in which a large portion is from agriculture Water quality models can be used to run scenarios on how to effectively reduce phosphorus delivery to Lake Erie. To ensure accuracy of predictions and correct representation of the watershed, the watershed model is typically calibrated to an observed data site to ensure model outputs match reality. Outside of this site it is not known how well the model will perform, and data that could be used upstream of the calibration site is often discarded because it is often sparser and therefore deemed more uncertain. However, it could be argued this data, while more uncertain than calibration data, could be used to assess performance and inform modeling decisions. In the first chapter of this thesis, I compare a Maumee River Watershed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to multiple sites for measured discharge, total phosphorus, and dissolved reactive phosphorus during the calibration years (2005-2015) to assess prediction upstream of the calibration site. Discharge found performance improved with increasing watershed area and proximity to calibration gauge (NSE ranging from -1.38 to 0.78, median = 0.53). Total phosphorous (NSE ranging from -69 to 0.53, median = -0.7) and dissolved reactive phosphorus (NSE ranging from -0.38 to 0.39, median = 0.07) were more difficult to characterize because of the reduced frequency of measured data and the variability in results. Total phosphorous was overpredicted at more sites (70%) whereas dissolved reactive phosphorus was underpredicted at more sites (64%). This chapter finds while the model performs well at some locations upstream of the calibration gauge, this is not always the case and improvements could be made to the model and model inputs to improve accuracy. The Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement also calls for adaptive management to respond to a changing climate. Current water quality targets are based on stationarity in precipitation and temperature, but stationarity is not the case under climate change. Thus, predicted climate data from general circulation models (GCMs) can be used with water quality models to project anticipated changes in discharge and nutrient loadings. Since uncertainty from the climate data is large, a common method to characterize this uncertainty is to run the water quality model with an ensemble of GCMs. However, this method only captures the uncertainty in climate predictions. For the second chapter of this thesis, an ensemble of five watershed models of the Maumee River Watershed, configured in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool models were run with six GCMs. Predictions of future discharge and nutrient loadings by mid-century (2046-2065) were assessed and uncertainty in predictions driven by SWAT and GCMs was characterized. A signal to noise ratio was used to characterize ensemble agreement and analysis of variance to partition uncertainty between SWAT and GCM. Signal-to-noise results showed no clear agreement on the direction of change in future nutrient loadings or discharge. GCMs dictated the uncertainty in prediction of future discharge (96%) and total nitrogen (63%), while SWAT was more important in driving uncertainty in simulation of future phosphorus loadings (> 57%). These results demonstrate that use of one SWAT model may not be enough to characterize uncertainty in future nutrient loadings in this region, and improvements in both SWAT and GCMs are needed.
Author: Karim Abbaspour Publisher: MDPI ISBN: 3038428159 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 501
Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Integrated Soil and Water Management: Selected Papers from 2016 International SWAT Conference" that was published in Water
Author: Velma I. Grover Publisher: CRC Press ISBN: 1466577495 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 428
Book Description
Since the hydrological cycle is so intricately linked to the climate system, any change in climate impacts the water cycle in terms of change in precipitation patterns, melting of snow and ice, increased evaporation, increased atmospheric water vapor and changes in soil moisture and run off. Consequently, climate change could result in floods in some areas and droughts in others resulting in varying availability and the quality of water affects the quality of life, food security and also health security. This book examines the impact of climate change on water as well as health.
Author: Andreas Mitsutoshi Culbertson
Author: Andreas Mitsutoshi Culbertson
Author: Saeid Eslamian
Author: Jan C. van Dam
Author: Saeid Eslamian
Author: Christina Anagnostopoulou
Author: United States. Great Lakes Basin Commission
Author: Thorsten Wagener
Author: Haley Ann Kujawa
Author: Karim Abbaspour
Author: Velma I. Grover