The Oxford Handbook of Economic Forecasting PDF Download

Author: Michael P. Clements
Publisher: OUP USA
ISBN: 0195398645
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 732

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Book Description
Greater data availability has been coupled with developments in statistical theory and economic theory to allow more elaborate and complicated models to be entertained. These include factor models, DSGE models, restricted vector autoregressions, and non-linear models.

Author: Jörg Breitung
Publisher:
ISBN: 9783865580979
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Book Description

Author: Siem Jan Koopman
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1785603523
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 685

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Book Description
This volume explores dynamic factor model specification, asymptotic and finite-sample behavior of parameter estimators, identification, frequentist and Bayesian estimation of the corresponding state space models, and applications.

Author: Olaf Hübler
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3540326936
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236

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Book Description
In this book leading German econometricians in different fields present survey articles of the most important new methods in econometrics. The book gives an overview of the field and it shows progress made in recent years and remaining problems.

Author: Marc Hallin
Publisher: World Scientific Publishing Company
ISBN: 9789813278004
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 764

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Book Description
Factor models have become the most successful tool in the analysis and forecasting of high-dimensional time series. This monograph provides an extensive account of the so-called General Dynamic Factor Model methods. The topics covered include: asymptotic representation problems, estimation, forecasting, identification of the number of factors, identification of structural shocks, volatility analysis, and applications to macroeconomic and financial data.

Author: Jushan Bai
Publisher: Now Publishers Inc
ISBN: 1601981449
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 90

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Book Description
Large Dimensional Factor Analysis provides a survey of the main theoretical results for large dimensional factor models, emphasizing results that have implications for empirical work. The authors focus on the development of the static factor models and on the use of estimated factors in subsequent estimation and inference. Large Dimensional Factor Analysis discusses how to determine the number of factors, how to conduct inference when estimated factors are used in regressions, how to assess the adequacy pf observed variables as proxies for latent factors, how to exploit the estimated factors to test unit root tests and common trends, and how to estimate panel cointegration models.

Author: Thorsten Dickhaus
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642451829
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 182

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Book Description
This monograph will provide an in-depth mathematical treatment of modern multiple test procedures controlling the false discovery rate (FDR) and related error measures, particularly addressing applications to fields such as genetics, proteomics, neuroscience and general biology. The book will also include a detailed description how to implement these methods in practice. Moreover new developments focusing on non-standard assumptions are also included, especially multiple tests for discrete data. The book primarily addresses researchers and practitioners but will also be beneficial for graduate students.

Author: Peter Fuleky
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030311503
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 716

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Book Description
This book surveys big data tools used in macroeconomic forecasting and addresses related econometric issues, including how to capture dynamic relationships among variables; how to select parsimonious models; how to deal with model uncertainty, instability, non-stationarity, and mixed frequency data; and how to evaluate forecasts, among others. Each chapter is self-contained with references, and provides solid background information, while also reviewing the latest advances in the field. Accordingly, the book offers a valuable resource for researchers, professional forecasters, and students of quantitative economics.

Author: Francis X. Diebold
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0199338329
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 285

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Book Description
Connections among different assets, asset classes, portfolios, and the stocks of individual institutions are critical in examining financial markets. Interest in financial markets implies interest in underlying macroeconomic fundamentals. In Financial and Macroeconomic Connectedness, Frank Diebold and Kamil Yilmaz propose a simple framework for defining, measuring, and monitoring connectedness, which is central to finance and macroeconomics. These measures of connectedness are theoretically rigorous yet empirically relevant. The approach to connectedness proposed by the authors is intimately related to the familiar econometric notion of variance decomposition. The full set of variance decompositions from vector auto-regressions produces the core of the 'connectedness table.' The connectedness table makes clear how one can begin with the most disaggregated pair-wise directional connectedness measures and aggregate them in various ways to obtain total connectedness measures. The authors also show that variance decompositions define weighted, directed networks, so that these proposed connectedness measures are intimately related to key measures of connectedness used in the network literature. After describing their methods in the first part of the book, the authors proceed to characterize daily return and volatility connectedness across major asset (stock, bond, foreign exchange and commodity) markets as well as the financial institutions within the U.S. and across countries since late 1990s. These specific measures of volatility connectedness show that stock markets played a critical role in spreading the volatility shocks from the U.S. to other countries. Furthermore, while the return connectedness across stock markets increased gradually over time the volatility connectedness measures were subject to significant jumps during major crisis events. This book examines not only financial connectedness, but also real fundamental connectedness. In particular, the authors show that global business cycle connectedness is economically significant and time-varying, that the U.S. has disproportionately high connectedness to others, and that pairwise country connectedness is inversely related to bilateral trade surpluses.

Author: Daniel Peña
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119417384
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 562

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Book Description
Master advanced topics in the analysis of large, dynamically dependent datasets with this insightful resource Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data delivers a comprehensive presentation of the statistical and machine learning methods useful for analyzing and forecasting large and dynamically dependent data sets. The book presents automatic procedures for modelling and forecasting large sets of time series data. Beginning with some visualization tools, the book discusses procedures and methods for finding outliers, clusters, and other types of heterogeneity in big dependent data. It then introduces various dimension reduction methods, including regularization and factor models such as regularized Lasso in the presence of dynamical dependence and dynamic factor models. The book also covers other forecasting procedures, including index models, partial least squares, boosting, and now-casting. It further presents machine-learning methods, including neural network, deep learning, classification and regression trees and random forests. Finally, procedures for modelling and forecasting spatio-temporal dependent data are also presented. Throughout the book, the advantages and disadvantages of the methods discussed are given. The book uses real-world examples to demonstrate applications, including use of many R packages. Finally, an R package associated with the book is available to assist readers in reproducing the analyses of examples and to facilitate real applications. Analysis of Big Dependent Data includes a wide variety of topics for modeling and understanding big dependent data, like: New ways to plot large sets of time series An automatic procedure to build univariate ARMA models for individual components of a large data set Powerful outlier detection procedures for large sets of related time series New methods for finding the number of clusters of time series and discrimination methods , including vector support machines, for time series Broad coverage of dynamic factor models including new representations and estimation methods for generalized dynamic factor models Discussion on the usefulness of lasso with time series and an evaluation of several machine learning procedure for forecasting large sets of time series Forecasting large sets of time series with exogenous variables, including discussions of index models, partial least squares, and boosting. Introduction of modern procedures for modeling and forecasting spatio-temporal data Perfect for PhD students and researchers in business, economics, engineering, and science: Statistical Learning with Big Dependent Data also belongs to the bookshelves of practitioners in these fields who hope to improve their understanding of statistical and machine learning methods for analyzing and forecasting big dependent data.