Author: Peter De GoeijPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymmetric Volatility
Author: Peter De GoeijDo Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymetric Volatility?
Author: Peter de GoeijPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 46
Book Description
In this paper we study the impact of macroeconomic news announcements on the conditional volatility of stock and bond returns. Using daily returns on the Samp;P 500 index, the NASDAQ index, and the 1 and 10 year U.S. Treasury bonds, for January 1982 - August 2001, some interesting results emerge. Announcement shocks appear to have a strong impact on the (dynamics of) bond and stock market volatility. Our results provide empirical evidence thatasymmetric volatility in the Treasury bond market can be largely explained by these macroeconomic announcement shocks. This suggests that the asymmetric volatility found in government bond markets are likely due to misspecification of the volatility model. After including macroeconomic announcements into the model, the asymmetry disappears. Becausefirm-specific news is the most important source of information in the stock market, the asymmetries in stock volatility do not disappear after incorporating macroeconomic announcements into the volatility model.
Do Macroeconomic Announcements Cause Asymetric Volatility?
Author: Peter De GoeijDiscovering and Disentangling Effects of US Macro-Announcements in European Stock Markets
Author: Tobias R. RühlPublisher:
ISBN: 9783867885744
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 38
Book Description
Discovering and Disentangling the Effects of US Macro-Announcements for European Stocks
Author: Tobias RühlPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 32
Book Description
In this study, we analyze the effects of US macroeconomic announcements on European stock returns, return volatility and bid-ask spreads using intraday data. While an index-based analysis provides expected outcomes of differing importance of macro-economic announcements, we provide first evidence on stock-specific reactions. The study further contributes by disentangling stock-specific impacts from overall market reactions. A spread analysis reveals that return volatility affects the spread size positively, and that spreads are systematically higher directly after news releases. This is followed by structurally lower spreads, indicating quickly decreasing asymmetric information in the market after announcements. Additionally, spreads tend to react to announcements even if the returns or the volatility of the underlying stock is not significantly affected. This points at the importance of the analysis of news events beyond return and volatility analyses.
Macroeconomic Announcements and Volatility of Treasury Futures
Author: Li LiPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :
Book Description
Utilizing open-close returns, close-close returns and volume data, we examine the reaction of the Treasury futures market to the periodically scheduled announcements of prominent U.S. macroeconomic data. Heterogeneous persistence from scheduled news vs. non-scheduled news is revealed. Strong asymmetric effects of scheduled announcements are presented: positive shocks depress volatility on consecutive days, while negative shocks increase volatility. Announcement-day shocks have small persistence, but great impacts on volatility in the short run. Investigation into volume data shows that announcement-day volume has lower persistence than non-announcement-day volume. No statistically significant risk premium manifests on the release dates. Compared with the implied volatility and realized volatility data, we find our model successful in forming both in-sample and out-of-sample multi-step forecasts. Distinctions are made and tested among microstructure theories that differ in predictions of the impact of scheduled macroeconomic news on volatility and volatility persistence. Asymmetric effects between positive and negative shocks from scheduled news call for further exploration of microstructure theory.
Volatility in Financial Markets
Author: Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 125
Book Description
This dissertation focuses on volatility in financial markets, with a special concern for: (i) volatility transmission between different financial markets and asset categories and, (ii) the effect of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlation of stock markets. These issues are analysed taking into account the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility and incorporating the period of financial turmoil caused by the Global Financial Crisis. The study focuses the attention on the emerging markets of the region of Southeast Asia. The asymmetric behaviour of volatility refers to the empirical evidence according to which a negative return shock (unexpected drop in the value of the stock) generates an increase in volatility higher than a positive return shock (unexpected increase in the value of the stock) of the same size. In the financial literature two explanations of the asymmetric effect of news on stock return volatility have been put forward. The analysis of financial assets volatility is important to academics, policy makers, and financial market participants for several reasons. First, prediction of financial assets volatility is crucial to economic agents because it helps them make rational portfolio risk management decisions. Volatility is critically important to economic agents because it represents a measure of risk exposure in their investments. Furthermore, from a theoretical perspective, volatility occupies a central stage in pricing of derivative securities. For example, to price an option we need to know, as a risk measure, the volatility of the underlying asset from now until the option expires. Moreover, in a market risk context, it is vital to know the volatility of an asset in order to calculate the Value-at-Risk of a portfolio selection. Finally, volatility is important for the economy as a whole. Policy makers often rely on market estimates of volatility as a barometer for the vulnerability of the financial markets and the economy. Regarding the Asian markets, it is worth mentioning that in recent years, the interrelations between the US and the Asian markets have raised due to the increasing financial relations. One typical portfolio diversification strategy consists of investing in similar asset classes in multiple markets (international diversification). In order to make appropriate risk management strategies it is vital to know the characteristics of the markets of the different geographical areas and how the markets co-move. Likewise, it is very important to analyse which factors can influence the behaviour of the assets in the financial markets. Within Asian markets, this thesis distinguishes between mature and emerging countries. Japan represents the mature market and the emerging economies are divided into three groups: the Asian Tigers (tigers hereafter), the Asian Tiger Cub (cubs hereafter) economies and, finally, China. The objectives of this thesis are threefold. First, to explore volatility spillovers and the time-varying behaviour of the correlation between the US and the Asian stock markets. Second, to analyse how the macroeconomic events in the US affect the Asian stock market returns, volatility and correlation. Finally, to investigate volatility spillovers between equity and currency markets in Asia. Throughout these analyses, this dissertation aims to establish behaviour patterns depending on the level of development of the emerging country analysed. Furthermore, the sample period used in the analyses incorporates the period of the recent financial turmoil originated by the subprime mortgage market in the United States in the summer of 2007, with the aim of studying the effect of the Global Financial crisis on the patterns found. In general, the results of the three analyses of this dissertation show some interesting visions. While the volatility transmission pattern between the US and the Asian stock markets is mostly observed when the degree of development of the Asian country is higher, the effect of US macroeconomic news releases on these Asian markets is greater as the Asian market analysed is less developed. It is worth mentioning that China arises as a general exception of the three analyses, performing in an independent way with respect to the other Asian economies analysed. The reason of this behaviour can be due, on the one hand, to the fact that in the past decades China has been reaching market-based financial system and has been trying to open it up towards the international financial markets. In spite of these efforts, its financial market is still not entirely open to other countries worldwide. All in all, the results suggest that emerging Asian financial markets have thus far suffered only limited impact from the Global Financial crisis. However, heightened risk perception and declining investor confidence could trigger a sudden reversal of financial flows from these region's capital markets, pushing down asset prices and intensifying financial market volatility. The results of this dissertation may be useful for analysts, traders and portfolio managers. In an asset allocation framework, it is crucial to diversify the assets of a portfolio to diminish its risk. Considering international diversification, before composing a portfolio, it is very useful to know volatility spillovers across countries and asset classes. In this regard, it is vital to take into account the role of the currency market, not only because of the effect of exchange rate in foreign investments, but also for the relationship between the stocks in which to invest and the exchange rate of the related country. Likewise, macroeconomic news releases play a significant role in the stocks markets, hence it is very important to know the effect of the arrival of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlations of the stocks markets in which we want to invest. Finally, it is remarkable that the results of this thesis suggest that exchange rate policies should not be implemented without considering the repercussions on the stock market, and vice versa.
Volatility in Financial Markets
Author: Natàlia Valls RuizPublisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
"This dissertation focuses on volatility in financial markets, with a special concern for: (i) volatility transmission between different financial markets and asset categories and, (ii) the effect of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlation of stock markets. These issues are analysed taking into account the phenomenon of asymmetric volatility and incorporating the period of financial turmoil caused by the Global Financial Crisis. The study focuses the attention on the emerging markets of the region of Southeast Asia. The asymmetric behaviour of volatility refers to the empirical evidence according to which a negative return shock (unexpected drop in the value of the stock) generates an increase in volatility higher than a positive return shock (unexpected increase in the value of the stock) of the same size. In the financial literature two explanations of the asymmetric effect of news on stock return volatility have been put forward. The analysis of financial assets volatility is important to academics, policy makers, and financial market participants for several reasons. First, prediction of financial assets volatility is crucial to economic agents because it helps them make rational portfolio risk management decisions. Volatility is critically important to economic agents because it represents a measure of risk exposure in their investments. Furthermore, from a theoretical perspective, volatility occupies a central stage in pricing of derivative securities. For example, to price an option we need to know, as a risk measure, the volatility of the underlying asset from now until the option expires. Moreover, in a market risk context, it is vital to know the volatility of an asset in order to calculate the Value-at-Risk of a portfolio selection. Finally, volatility is important for the economy as a whole. Policy makers often rely on market estimates of volatility as a barometer for the vulnerability of the financial markets and the economy. Regarding the Asian markets, it is worth mentioning that in recent years, the interrelations between the US and the Asian markets have raised due to the increasing financial relations. One typical portfolio diversification strategy consists of investing in similar asset classes in multiple markets (international diversification). In order to make appropriate risk management strategies it is vital to know the characteristics of the markets of the different geographical areas and how the markets co-move. Likewise, it is very important to analyse which factors can influence the behaviour of the assets in the financial markets. Within Asian markets, this thesis distinguishes between mature and emerging countries. Japan represents the mature market and the emerging economies are divided into three groups: the Asian Tigers (tigers hereafter), the Asian Tiger Cub (cubs hereafter) economies and, finally, China. The objectives of this thesis are threefold. First, to explore volatility spillovers and the time-varying behaviour of the correlation between the US and the Asian stock markets. Second, to analyse how the macroeconomic events in the US affect the Asian stock market returns, volatility and correlation. Finally, to investigate volatility spillovers between equity and currency markets in Asia. Throughout these analyses, this dissertation aims to establish behaviour patterns depending on the level of development of the emerging country analysed. Furthermore, the sample period used in the analyses incorporates the period of the recent financial turmoil originated by the subprime mortgage market in the United States in the summer of 2007, with the aim of studying the effect of the Global Financial crisis on the patterns found. In general, the results of the three analyses of this dissertation show some interesting visions. While the volatility transmission pattern between the US and the Asian stock markets is mostly observed when the degree of development of the Asian country is higher, the effect of US macroeconomic news releases on these Asian markets is greater as the Asian market analysed is less developed. It is worth mentioning that China arises as a general exception of the three analyses, performing in an independent way with respect to the other Asian economies analysed. The reason of this behaviour can be due, on the one hand, to the fact that in the past decades China has been reaching market-based financial system and has been trying to open it up towards the international financial markets. In spite of these efforts, its financial market is still not entirely open to other countries worldwide. All in all, the results suggest that emerging Asian financial markets have thus far suffered only limited impact from the Global Financial crisis. However, heightened risk perception and declining investor confidence could trigger a sudden reversal of financial flows from these region's capital markets, pushing down asset prices and intensifying financial market volatility. The results of this dissertation may be useful for analysts, traders and portfolio managers. In an asset allocation framework, it is crucial to diversify the assets of a portfolio to diminish its risk. Considering international diversification, before composing a portfolio, it is very useful to know volatility spillovers across countries and asset classes. In this regard, it is vital to take into account the role of the currency market, not only because of the effect of exchange rate in foreign investments, but also for the relationship between the stocks in which to invest and the exchange rate of the related country. Likewise, macroeconomic news releases play a significant role in the stocks markets, hence it is very important to know the effect of the arrival of macroeconomic announcements on the returns, volatility and correlations of the stocks markets in which we want to invest. Finally, it is remarkable that the results of this thesis suggest that exchange rate policies should not be implemented without considering the repercussions on the stock market, and vice versa."--TDX.
Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications
Author: Luc BauwensPublisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118272056
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 566
Book Description
A complete guide to the theory and practice of volatility models in financial engineering Volatility has become a hot topic in this era of instant communications, spawning a great deal of research in empirical finance and time series econometrics. Providing an overview of the most recent advances, Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications explores key concepts and topics essential for modeling the volatility of financial time series, both univariate and multivariate, parametric and non-parametric, high-frequency and low-frequency. Featuring contributions from international experts in the field, the book features numerous examples and applications from real-world projects and cutting-edge research, showing step by step how to use various methods accurately and efficiently when assessing volatility rates. Following a comprehensive introduction to the topic, readers are provided with three distinct sections that unify the statistical and practical aspects of volatility: Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity and Stochastic Volatility presents ARCH and stochastic volatility models, with a focus on recent research topics including mean, volatility, and skewness spillovers in equity markets Other Models and Methods presents alternative approaches, such as multiplicative error models, nonparametric and semi-parametric models, and copula-based models of (co)volatilities Realized Volatility explores issues of the measurement of volatility by realized variances and covariances, guiding readers on how to successfully model and forecast these measures Handbook of Volatility Models and Their Applications is an essential reference for academics and practitioners in finance, business, and econometrics who work with volatility models in their everyday work. The book also serves as a supplement for courses on risk management and volatility at the upper-undergraduate and graduate levels.
Forecasting in the Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty
Author: David E. RapachPublisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 044452942X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 691
Book Description
Forecasting in the presence of structural breaks and model uncertainty are active areas of research with implications for practical problems in forecasting. This book addresses forecasting variables from both Macroeconomics and Finance, and considers various methods of dealing with model instability and model uncertainty when forming forecasts.