Author: Aileen Liu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 94
Book Description
For several years, economists have been debating how well Federal tax policy changes have performed in readjusting the economy. Tax change policies have been instituted periodically since World War II up to the very present. The goals sought by the legislators have varied. The tax cut policy in the Kennedy administration was set up to invigorate a recessionary economy. Under the Reagan administration, tax cuts are a tool to increase savings and investment. Part of the reason for the inconsistency in policy aims is due to the lack of consensus on how a tax cut will perform in a given period . Most predictive models ignore the state of the economy at the time, the degree of consumer optimism, and lags in the adjustment of consumer expectations. These variables are vital in determining the consumers' reactions to a given tax cut during a given economic phase . Moreover, whether consumers can even distinguish the windfalls from a tax cut apart from increases in take home pay from a wage hike, is a matter of debate. Recent discussions have been focused on the temporal nature of the tax cuts. The significance of the issue seems real enough such that cuts are determined and categorized according to their permanent or transitory nature of consumer spending after a tax reduction that is permanent or one that is temporary (either a one-shot rebate or a cut specified to last for one or two years), can be measured to see whether each has a distinctive effect on consumer spending. The widely accepted Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) states that transitory changes have their main impact on saving and not on consumption. Permanent Income on which consumer spending is based, is a weighted average of consumers' past incomes, for consumption patterns take time to readjust to increments in today's income. Given this view, a temporary tax cut will barely have an effect on permanent income, since the change is known to be temporary. Consumption will then proceed in the same direction as if there had been no tax change at all . Macroeconomists argue that a rise in income stimulates consumer spending. A tax cut is easily associated with the growth of consumer spending, if one agrees with the premise that consumers have treated the increase in take-horne pay from the tax cut in the same way they treat increases in their take-home pay from other sources (Okun, 1971). Given the supposition that consumers plan their spending patterns over a horizon, the consumers would calculate a larger spending increase today, knowing that they will attain the same tax cut in each future period.
Determining the Consumption Effects of Announced Permanent and Temporary Tax Cuts in Accordance with the Permanent Income Hypothesis
Author: Aileen Liu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 94
Book Description
For several years, economists have been debating how well Federal tax policy changes have performed in readjusting the economy. Tax change policies have been instituted periodically since World War II up to the very present. The goals sought by the legislators have varied. The tax cut policy in the Kennedy administration was set up to invigorate a recessionary economy. Under the Reagan administration, tax cuts are a tool to increase savings and investment. Part of the reason for the inconsistency in policy aims is due to the lack of consensus on how a tax cut will perform in a given period . Most predictive models ignore the state of the economy at the time, the degree of consumer optimism, and lags in the adjustment of consumer expectations. These variables are vital in determining the consumers' reactions to a given tax cut during a given economic phase . Moreover, whether consumers can even distinguish the windfalls from a tax cut apart from increases in take home pay from a wage hike, is a matter of debate. Recent discussions have been focused on the temporal nature of the tax cuts. The significance of the issue seems real enough such that cuts are determined and categorized according to their permanent or transitory nature of consumer spending after a tax reduction that is permanent or one that is temporary (either a one-shot rebate or a cut specified to last for one or two years), can be measured to see whether each has a distinctive effect on consumer spending. The widely accepted Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) states that transitory changes have their main impact on saving and not on consumption. Permanent Income on which consumer spending is based, is a weighted average of consumers' past incomes, for consumption patterns take time to readjust to increments in today's income. Given this view, a temporary tax cut will barely have an effect on permanent income, since the change is known to be temporary. Consumption will then proceed in the same direction as if there had been no tax change at all . Macroeconomists argue that a rise in income stimulates consumer spending. A tax cut is easily associated with the growth of consumer spending, if one agrees with the premise that consumers have treated the increase in take-horne pay from the tax cut in the same way they treat increases in their take-home pay from other sources (Okun, 1971). Given the supposition that consumers plan their spending patterns over a horizon, the consumers would calculate a larger spending increase today, knowing that they will attain the same tax cut in each future period.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 94
Book Description
For several years, economists have been debating how well Federal tax policy changes have performed in readjusting the economy. Tax change policies have been instituted periodically since World War II up to the very present. The goals sought by the legislators have varied. The tax cut policy in the Kennedy administration was set up to invigorate a recessionary economy. Under the Reagan administration, tax cuts are a tool to increase savings and investment. Part of the reason for the inconsistency in policy aims is due to the lack of consensus on how a tax cut will perform in a given period . Most predictive models ignore the state of the economy at the time, the degree of consumer optimism, and lags in the adjustment of consumer expectations. These variables are vital in determining the consumers' reactions to a given tax cut during a given economic phase . Moreover, whether consumers can even distinguish the windfalls from a tax cut apart from increases in take home pay from a wage hike, is a matter of debate. Recent discussions have been focused on the temporal nature of the tax cuts. The significance of the issue seems real enough such that cuts are determined and categorized according to their permanent or transitory nature of consumer spending after a tax reduction that is permanent or one that is temporary (either a one-shot rebate or a cut specified to last for one or two years), can be measured to see whether each has a distinctive effect on consumer spending. The widely accepted Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH) states that transitory changes have their main impact on saving and not on consumption. Permanent Income on which consumer spending is based, is a weighted average of consumers' past incomes, for consumption patterns take time to readjust to increments in today's income. Given this view, a temporary tax cut will barely have an effect on permanent income, since the change is known to be temporary. Consumption will then proceed in the same direction as if there had been no tax change at all . Macroeconomists argue that a rise in income stimulates consumer spending. A tax cut is easily associated with the growth of consumer spending, if one agrees with the premise that consumers have treated the increase in take-horne pay from the tax cut in the same way they treat increases in their take-home pay from other sources (Okun, 1971). Given the supposition that consumers plan their spending patterns over a horizon, the consumers would calculate a larger spending increase today, knowing that they will attain the same tax cut in each future period.
Tax Policy and Consumer Spending
Author: Katsunori Watanabe
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer behavior
Languages : en
Pages : 66
Book Description
This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that more than 80 per cent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumer behavior
Languages : en
Pages : 66
Book Description
This paper studies the extent to which the impact of tax policy on consumer spending differs between temporary and permanent, as well as anticipated and unanticipated tax changes. To discriminate between them, we use institutional information such as legal distinction between temporary and permanent tax changes, as well as timing of policy announcement and implementation. We find that the impact of temporary changes is significantly smaller than the impact of permanent changes. We also find that more than 80 per cent of Japanese consumers, including those who distinguish between temporary and permanent tax changes, respond to tax changes at the time of their implementation and not at the time of a policy announcement. We suggest an interpretation that these consumers follow a near-rational decision rule.
The Sensitivity of Consumption to Transitory Income
Author: Robert Ernest Hall
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumers
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumers
Languages : en
Pages : 44
Book Description
Temporary Income Taxes and Consumer Spending
Author: Alan S. Blinder
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Both economic theory and casual empirical observation of the U.S. economy suggest that spending propensities from temporary tax changes are smaller than those from permanent ones, but neither provides much guidance about the magnitude of this difference. This paper offers new empirical estimates of this difference and finds it to he quite substantial. The analysis is based on an amendment of the standard distributed lag version of the permanent in-conic hypothesis that distinguishes temporary taxes from other income on the grounds that the former are "more transitory." This amendment, which is broadly consistent with rational expectations, leads to a nonlinear consumption function. Though the standard error is unavoidably large, the point estimate suggests that a temporary tax change is treated as a 50-50 blend of a normal income tax change and a pure windfall. Over a 1-year planning horizon, a temporary tax change is estimated to have only a little more than half the impact of a permanent tax change of equal magnitude, and a rebate is estimated to have only about 38 percent of the impact.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0
Book Description
Both economic theory and casual empirical observation of the U.S. economy suggest that spending propensities from temporary tax changes are smaller than those from permanent ones, but neither provides much guidance about the magnitude of this difference. This paper offers new empirical estimates of this difference and finds it to he quite substantial. The analysis is based on an amendment of the standard distributed lag version of the permanent in-conic hypothesis that distinguishes temporary taxes from other income on the grounds that the former are "more transitory." This amendment, which is broadly consistent with rational expectations, leads to a nonlinear consumption function. Though the standard error is unavoidably large, the point estimate suggests that a temporary tax change is treated as a 50-50 blend of a normal income tax change and a pure windfall. Over a 1-year planning horizon, a temporary tax change is estimated to have only a little more than half the impact of a permanent tax change of equal magnitude, and a rebate is estimated to have only about 38 percent of the impact.
Transitory Consumption and Measurement Errors in the Permanent Income Hypothesis
The Permanent-income Hypothesis, and Other Aggregate Consumption Functions
Author: Robert Glenn James
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 126
Book Description
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Consumption (Economics)
Languages : en
Pages : 126
Book Description
Studies in Taxation, Public Finance, and Related Subjects
Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance, Public
Languages : en
Pages : 388
Book Description
Studies prepared for the U.S. Congress by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress.
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Finance, Public
Languages : en
Pages : 388
Book Description
Studies prepared for the U.S. Congress by the Congressional Research Service (CRS), Library of Congress.
Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation
Author: Alan S. Blinder
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483264564
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
Book Description
Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483264564
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 244
Book Description
Economic Policy and the Great Stagflation discusses the national economic policy and economics as a policy-oriented science. This book summarizes what economists do and do not know about the inflation and recession that affected the U.S. economy during the years of the Great Stagflation in the mid-1970s. The topics discussed include the basic concepts of stagflation, turbulent economic history of 1971-1976, anatomy of the great recession and inflation, and legacy of the Great Stagflation. The relation of wage-price controls, fiscal policy, and monetary policy to the Great Stagflation is also elaborated. This publication is beneficial to economists and students researching on the history of the Great Stagflation and policy errors of the 1970s.
Macroeconomics
Author: Michael Burda
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192893572
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 627
Book Description
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0192893572
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 627
Book Description