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Author: Ricardo Paes de Barros Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In this study we present evidence of the impact of demographic factors on the level of poverty based on the Brazilian experience. Two demographic factors were investigated: a) the size and b) the age composition of the population. The goal was to estimate through the micro-simulation approach the impact of changes in these two factors on the distribution of income and consequently on the level of poverty. We presented estimates of the impact on poverty of a series of alternative demographic changes. First, we consider the demographic changes that occurred over the previous decades. We showed that these changes led to a continuous reduction in poverty, which is equivalent to an additional 0.4 to 0.5 percentage point in annual growth in per capita income. Since the average growth rate in per capita income in Brazil over the studied period was close to 3.0% per year, the estimated direct impact of the demographic transition had an impact on poverty close to 15% of the corresponding impact of economic growth. We also investigated: a) the importance of regional differences in demographic conditions and b) demographic differences between poor and rich families for explaining concomitant differences in poverty. Accordingly to our estimates, we can conclude that overall secular demographic changes tend to have much greater impact on poverty than differences in the time and the speed of the demographic transition across regions and between poor and rich families.
Author: Ricardo Paes de Barros Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
In this study we present evidence of the impact of demographic factors on the level of poverty based on the Brazilian experience. Two demographic factors were investigated: a) the size and b) the age composition of the population. The goal was to estimate through the micro-simulation approach the impact of changes in these two factors on the distribution of income and consequently on the level of poverty. We presented estimates of the impact on poverty of a series of alternative demographic changes. First, we consider the demographic changes that occurred over the previous decades. We showed that these changes led to a continuous reduction in poverty, which is equivalent to an additional 0.4 to 0.5 percentage point in annual growth in per capita income. Since the average growth rate in per capita income in Brazil over the studied period was close to 3.0% per year, the estimated direct impact of the demographic transition had an impact on poverty close to 15% of the corresponding impact of economic growth. We also investigated: a) the importance of regional differences in demographic conditions and b) demographic differences between poor and rich families for explaining concomitant differences in poverty. Accordingly to our estimates, we can conclude that overall secular demographic changes tend to have much greater impact on poverty than differences in the time and the speed of the demographic transition across regions and between poor and rich families.
Author: Ole Hagen Jorgensen Publisher: World Bank Publications ISBN: 0821388029 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 337
Book Description
Brazil is in the middle of a profound socioeconomic transformation driven by demographic change. Because of profound changes in mortality and, especially, fertility over the past four decades the population at older ages then begun to increase, a trend that will become more and more rapid as time progresses. While it took more than a century for France's population, aged 65 and above, to increase from 7 to 14 percent of the total population, the same demographic change will occur in the next two decades in Brazil (between 2011 and 2031). The elderly population will more than triple within the next four decades, from less than 20 million in 2010 to approximately 65 million in 2050. On the one side, these shifts in population age structure will lead to substantial additional fiscal pressures on publicly financed health care and pensions, along with substantial reductions in fiscal pressures for publicly financed education. Public transfers in Brazil have been very effective in reducing poverty among the elderly in both urban and rural areas. However, without substantial changes, the aging of the population will put a strain on the current system that will result in some critical trade-offs with consequence for poverty among other vulnerable groups and for the growth prospects of the country. One the other side, given the strong association between people's economic behavior and the life cycle, changes in the population age structure have a major impact on economic development. This book investigates the impact of demographic changes on several dimensions of the Brazilian economy and society. It does so in a comprehensive and systematic way that captures the broad complexity of issues, from economic growth to poverty, from public financing of social services and transfers to savings, from employment to health and long-term care, and their interrelations.
Author: Charles H. Wood Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521102469 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This book examines how transformations in Brazil's social, economic and political organization affect the demographic behaviour of people who live in different parts of the country and who occupy different positions in the social system. The authors review the history of unequal development and document the concentration of income and land ownership. Using data from the 1970 and 1980 censuses, they show how the Brazilian style of economic growth unequally affected different population subgroups. Mortality estimates for white and non-white people measure the consequences of racial inequality on the life chances of children. Other chapters investigate rural out-migration, the impact of Amazon colonization schemes on rural poverty, and the implications of differential rates of population growth among rich and poor households for future patterns of inequality and underemployment. The overall perspective places the concept of inequality at the centre of the study of demographic and structural change.
Author: Thomas William Merrick Publisher: Baltimore : Johns Hopkins University Press ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 416
Book Description
Monograph on population and economic development trends in historical perspective in Brazil - examines economic history, population growth from 1800 to 1970, slavery, immigration, internal migration, structure of labour force, rural migration, growth and poverty of urban population, fertility, mortality, population policy in development planning including employment and income distribution, etc. Graphs, references and statistical tables.
Author: Nancy Birdsall Publisher: Oxford University Press ISBN: 0199244073 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 457
Book Description
The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data weretoo weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result, economists as a group have not been clear or conclusive.This volume, which is based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic--economic relationships, and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular,evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a pattern in recent decades that was not evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggeststhat changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as theAsian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causalrelationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create apath out of poverty for many families.Population Matters represents an important further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.
Author: Daniel Joseph Hogan Publisher: ISBN: Category : Brazil Languages : en Pages : 372
Book Description
The Population Studies Center (Núcleo de Estudos de População - NEPO) of the State University of Campinas has dedicated two decades of intensive work to inter disciplinary research and the consolidation of training programs in the fields of Demography and Population Studies. With the conviction that distinctions such as basic vs. applied science, research vs. extension, or classroom vs. the real world laboratory are false dichotomies which only serve to reinforce ivory tower academism or ad hoc, incoherent social policies, NEPO has sought to construct a "concerned demography" with a rigorous theoretical and methodological base. NEPO has always understood the analysis of the social, economic, cultural and political determinants and consequences of demographic phenomena as an integral part of population science. In the context of recent historical changes in basic demographic parameters and of major cultural changes, NEPO has sought to identify, understand and explain socio-demographic transformations. The obvious impacts for social policy highlighted the importance of permanent dialog with government agencies at all levels and with NGOs. --From publisher description.
Author: Sergio Luiz de Bragança Publisher: ISBN: Category : Brazil Languages : en Pages : 116
Book Description
Progress report of a modelling and simulation research project on relations between economic and social development and population dynamics in Brazil. Presents economic models for long term studies at regional and national level, and an econometric model integrating macroeconomics variables for medium term and short term applications.
Author: Ricardo Paes de Barros
Author: Ricardo Paes de Barros
Author: Ole Hagen Jorgensen
Author: Ricardo Paes de Barros
Author: Dorte Verner
Author: Charles H. Wood
Author: Thomas William Merrick
Author: Nancy Birdsall
Author: Daniel Joseph Hogan
Author: Sergio Luiz de Bragança
Author: José Pastore