Declining Population Growth Revisited PDF Download

Author: Joseph John Spengler
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Economic development
Languages : en
Pages : 72

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Author: Charles S. Pearson
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0190223936
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 257

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Book Description
For much of its history, human population growth increased at a glacial pace. The demographic rate only soared about 200 years ago, climaxing between the years 1950 and 2000. In that 50-year span, the population grew more than it had in the previous 5,000 years. Though these raw numbers are impressive, they conceal the fact that the growth rate of population topped out in the 1960s and may be negative later this century. The population boom is approaching a population bust, despite the current world population of seven billion people. In On the Cusp, economist Charles Pearson explores the meaning of this population trend from the arc of demographic growth to decline. He reviews Thomas Malthus's famous, but mistaken, 1798 argument that human population would exceed the earth's carrying capacity. That argument has resurfaced, however, in the current environmental era and under the threat of global warming. Analyzing population trends through dual lenses -- demography and economics -- Pearson examines the potential opportunities and challenges of population decline and aging. Aging is almost universal and will accelerate. Mitigating untoward economic effects may require policies to boost fertility (which has plunged), increase immigration, and work longer, harder, and smarter -- as well as undertake pension and health care reform, all of which have hidden costs. The writing is rigorous but not technical, and is complemented by a helpful set of figures and tables. Sharp, bold, and occasionally funny, Pearson's research has thought-provoking implications for future public policies. He ends his analysis with a modestly hopeful conclusion, noting that both the rich and the poor face a new demographic order. General readers and students alike will find On the Cusp an informative and engaging read.

Author: Joseph John Spengler
Publisher: Durham, N.C. : Duke University Press
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 314

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Author: Donella H. Meadows
Publisher: Universe Pub
ISBN: 9780876632222
Category : Economic development.
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Examines the factors which limit human economic and population growth and outlines the steps necessary for achieving a balance between population and production. Bibliogs

Author: Thomas J. Espenshade
Publisher: Elsevier
ISBN: 1483266060
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 309

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Book Description
The Economic Consequences of Slowing Population Growth is a collection of papers dealing with the economic implications of a sustained low fertility rate on an industrialized country. The book reviews the situation prevailing in the United States including the country's demographic trends and prospects. The text also presents the uncertainties, the unknown, and the known economic consequences of low fertility as analyzed from previous generations. One paper examines the lessons that can be learned from a zero population growth in Europe by comparing theory and reality. This paper expounds on the social and economic effects while transitioning to a zero growth rate. Other papers examine the inter-relationships between unemployment, inflation, and economic policy. These papers also give recommendations to cut unemployment levels without causing inflation in the process. Other papers discuss social security and other needs of an aging population. One paper examines rising concerns over population movements in times of slower U.S. population growth; the author cites data reflecting migration trends and population declines in several metropolitan areas. The text can prove useful for sociologists, social workers, public health services officers, and public economists.

Author: Nancy Birdsall
Publisher: OUP Oxford
ISBN: 0191529532
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 457

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Book Description
The effect of demography on economic performance has been the subject of intense debate in economics for nearly two centuries. In recent years opinion has swung between the Malthusian views of Coale and Hoover, and the cornucopian views of Julian Simon. Unfortunately, until recently, data were too weak and analytical models too limited to provide clear insights into the relationship. As a result, economists as a group have not been clear or conclusive. This volume, which is based on a collection of papers that heavily rely on data from the 1980s and 1990s and on new analytical approaches, sheds important new light on demographic—economic relationships, and it provides clearer policy conclusions than any recent work on the subject. In particular, evidence from developing countries throughout the world shows a pattern in recent decades that was not evident earlier: countries with higher rates of population growth have tended to see less economic growth. An analysis of the role of demography in the "Asian economic miracle" strongly suggests that changes in age structures resulting from declining fertility create a one-time "demographic gift" or window of opportunity, when the working age population has relatively few dependants, of either young or old age, to support. Countries which recognize and seize on this opportunity can, as the Asian tigers did, realize healthy bursts in economic output. But such results are by no means assured: only for countries with otherwise sound economic policies will the window of opportunity yield such dramatic results. Finally, several of the studies demonstrate the likelihood of a causal relationship between high fertility and poverty. While the direction of causality is not always clear and very likely is reciprocal (poverty contributes to high fertility and high fertility reinforces poverty), the studies support the view that lower fertility at the country level helps create a path out of poverty for many families. Population Matters represents an important further step in our understanding of the contribution of population change to economic performance. As such, it will be a useful volume for policymakers both in developing countries and in international development agencies.

Author: Paul R. Ehrlich
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781568495873
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Lindsey Grant
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 768

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A collection of essays of the subject of Negative Population Growth. Amongst the remarkable changes that occurred in the industrialized world in the twentieth century, the most fundamental change of all was the quadrupling of human population--a growth three times as large as the human race had experienced in all its previous history. The alarming increase in world population has profoundly altered mankind's relationship to the Earth natural resources. This scholarly compendium presents a collection of writings on the subject of population change, its consequences and the impact of human crowding on the future of mankind.--From publisher description.

Author: Ugo Bardi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441994165
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 128

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Book Description
“The Limits to Growth” (Meadows, 1972) generated unprecedented controversy with its predictions of the eventual collapse of the world's economies. First hailed as a great advance in science, “The Limits to Growth” was subsequently rejected and demonized. However, with many national economies now at risk and global peak oil apparently a reality, the methods, scenarios, and predictions of “The Limits to Growth” are in great need of reappraisal. In The Limits to Growth Revisited, Ugo Bardi examines both the science and the polemics surrounding this work, and in particular the reactions of economists that marginalized its methods and conclusions for more than 30 years. “The Limits to Growth” was a milestone in attempts to model the future of our society, and it is vital today for both scientists and policy makers to understand its scientific basis, current relevance, and the social and political mechanisms that led to its rejection. Bardi also addresses the all-important question of whether the methods and approaches of “The Limits to Growth” can contribute to an understanding of what happened to the global economy in the Great Recession and where we are headed from there.

Author: Robert C. Repetto
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 116

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Book Description
This work compares the forecasts of the Second India study of the 1960s - which investigated how the nation would cope with the inevitable doubling of its population by the year 2000 - with the actual effects of India's population growth.