Combining Fuzzy Imprecision with Probabilistic Uncertainty in Decision Making PDF Download

Author: Janusz Kacprzyk
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Fuzzy sets
Languages : en
Pages : 418

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Author: Mark Burgman
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521543019
Category : Medical
Languages : en
Pages : 520

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Describes how to conduct a complete environmental risk assessment for students, researchers and professionals in ecology, conservation and resource management.

Author: Paul Weirich
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108604781
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 139

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Book Description
An agent often does not have precise probabilities or utilities to guide resolution of a decision problem. I advance a principle of rationality for making decisions in such cases. To begin, I represent the doxastic and conative state of an agent with a set of pairs of a probability assignment and a utility assignment. Then I support a decision principle that allows any act that maximizes expected utility according to some pair of assignments in the set. Assuming that computation of an option's expected utility uses comprehensive possible outcomes that include the option's risk, no consideration supports a stricter requirement.

Author: Jonathan Baron
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0195354907
Category : Psychology
Languages : en
Pages : 238

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People often follow intuitive principles of decision making, ranging from group loyalty to the belief that nature is benign. But instead of using these principles as rules of thumb, we often treat them as absolutes and ignore the consequences of following them blindly. In Judgment Misguided, Jonathan Baron explores our well-meant and deeply felt personal intuitions about what is right and wrong, and how they affect the public domain. Baron argues that when these intuitions are valued in their own right, rather than as a means to another end, they often prevent us from achieving the results we want. Focusing on cases where our intuitive principles take over public decision making, the book examines some of our most common intuitions and the ways they can be misused. According to Baron, we can avoid these problems by paying more attention to the effects of our decisions. Written in a accessible style, the book is filled with compelling case studies, such as abortion, nuclear power, immigration, and the decline of the Atlantic fishery, among others, which illustrate a range of intuitions and how they impede the public's best interests. Judgment Misguided will be important reading for those involved in public decision making, and researchers and students in psychology and the social sciences, as well as everyone looking for insight into the decisions that affect us all.

Author: Kenneth R. Hammond
Publisher: Oxford University Press
ISBN: 0195357043
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 449

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From the O.J. Simpson verdict to peace-making in the Balkans, the critical role of human judgement--complete with its failures, flaws, and successes--has never been more hotly debated and analyzed than it is today. This landmark work examines the dynamics of judgement and its impact on events that take place in human society, which require the direction and control of social policy. Research on social policy typically focuses on content. This book concentrates instead on the decision-making process itself. Drawing on 50 years of empirical research in decision theory, Hammond examines the possibilities for wisdom and cognitive competence in the formation of social policies, and applies these lessons to specific examples, such as the space shuttle Challenger disaster and the health care debate. Uncertainly, he tells us, can seldom be fully eliminated; thus error is inevitable, and injustice for some unavoidable. But the capacity for make wise judgments increases to the extent that we understand the potential pitfalls and their origin. The judgment process for example involves an ongoing rivalry between intuition and analysis, accuracy and rationality. The source of this tension requires an examination of the evolutionary roots of human judgement and how these fundamental features may be changing as our civilization increasingly becomes an information and knowledge-based society. With numerous examples from law, medicine, engineering, and economics, the author dramatizes the importance of judgment and its role in the formation of social policies which affect us all, and issues the first comprehensive examination of its underlying dynamics.

Author: Management Association, Information Resources
Publisher: IGI Global
ISBN: 1466674571
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 2107

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Across a variety of disciplines, data and statistics form the backbone of knowledge. To ensure the reliability and validity of data, appropriate measures must be taken in conducting studies and reporting findings. Research Methods: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools, and Applications compiles chapters on key considerations in the management, development, and distribution of data. With its focus on both fundamental concepts and advanced topics, this multi-volume reference work will be a valuable addition to researchers, scholars, and students of science, mathematics, and engineering.

Author: Weixing Cao
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 3642011322
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 333

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Book Description
"Crop Modeling and Decision Support" presents 36 papers selected from the International Symposium on Crop Modeling and Decision Support (ISCMDS-2008), held at Nanjing of China from 19th to 22nd in April, 2008. Many of these papers show the recent advances in modeling crop and soil processes, crop productivity, plant architecture and climate change; the rests describe the developments in model-based decision support systems (DSS), model applications, and integration of crop models with other information technologies. The book is intended for researchers, teachers, engineers, and graduate students on crop modeling and decision support. Dr. Weixing Cao is a professor at Nanjing Agricultural University, China.

Author: Mario Fedrizzi
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783642466458
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 399

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Book Description
In the literature of decision analysis it is traditional to rely on the tools provided by probability theory to deal with problems in which uncertainty plays a substantive role. In recent years, however, it has become increasingly clear that uncertainty is a mul tifaceted concept in which some of the important facets do not lend themselves to analysis by probability-based methods. One such facet is that of fuzzy imprecision, which is associated with the use of fuzzy predicates exemplified by small, large, fast, near, likely, etc. To be more specific, consider a proposition such as "It is very unlikely that the price of oil will decline sharply in the near future," in which the italicized words play the role of fuzzy predicates. The question is: How can one express the mean ing of this proposition through the use of probability-based methods? If this cannot be done effectively in a probabilistic framework, then how can one employ the information provided by the proposition in question to bear on a decision relating to an investment in a company engaged in exploration and marketing of oil? As another example, consider a collection of rules of the form "If X is Ai then Y is B,," j = 1, . . . , n, in which X and Yare real-valued variables and Ai and Bi are fuzzy numbers exemplified by small, large, not very small, close to 5, etc.

Author: Leonard C Maclean
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 981441736X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 941

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Book Description
This handbook in two parts covers key topics of the theory of financial decision making. Some of the papers discuss real applications or case studies as well. There are a number of new papers that have never been published before especially in Part II.Part I is concerned with Decision Making Under Uncertainty. This includes subsections on Arbitrage, Utility Theory, Risk Aversion and Static Portfolio Theory, and Stochastic Dominance. Part II is concerned with Dynamic Modeling that is the transition for static decision making to multiperiod decision making. The analysis starts with Risk Measures and then discusses Dynamic Portfolio Theory, Tactical Asset Allocation and Asset-Liability Management Using Utility and Goal Based Consumption-Investment Decision Models.A comprehensive set of problems both computational and review and mind expanding with many unsolved problems are in an accompanying problems book. The handbook plus the book of problems form a very strong set of materials for PhD and Masters courses both as the main or as supplementary text in finance theory, financial decision making and portfolio theory. For researchers, it is a valuable resource being an up to date treatment of topics in the classic books on these topics by Johnathan Ingersoll in 1988, and William Ziemba and Raymond Vickson in 1975 (updated 2nd edition published in 2006).

Author:
Publisher: BRILL
ISBN: 9004333223
Category : Philosophy
Languages : en
Pages : 378

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Solving the problem of the negative impact of science and technology on society and the environment is indeed the greatest challenge of our time. To date, this challenge has been taken up by few professional philosophers of science, making this volume a welcome contribution to the general debate. Agazzi’s treatment involves viewing modern science and technology as each constituting systems. Against the background of this approach, he provides a penetrating analysis of science, technology and ethics, and their interrelations. Agazzi sees the solution to the problem as lying in the moral sphere and including a multilateral assumption of responsibility on the part of decision makers both within and outside of science.