Debt-Related Vulnerabilities and Financial Crises - an Application of the Balance Sheet Approach to Emerging Market Countries PDF Download

Author: International Monetary Fund. Policy Development and Review Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498330274
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 63

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Book Description
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Author: Mr.Brad Setser
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589064259
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 59

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Book Description
The analysis of currency and maturity mismatches in sectoral balance sheets has increasingly become a regular element in the IMF’s tool kit for surveillance in emerging market countries. This paper describes this so-called balance sheet approach and shows how it can be applied to detect vulnerabilities and shape policy advice. It also provides a broad-brushed overview of how balance sheet vulnerabilities have evolved over the past decade and cites a number of case studies.

Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403

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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66

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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Author: Mr.Charles Collyns
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589062086
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 131

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Book Description
This paper seeks to draw lessons from the IMF’s experience in handling financial crises around the globe over the past ten years that are relevant to the challenges faced by countries in Latin America, especially in the wake of the recent crisis in Argentina. Experience suggests that there is no quick or easy fix in the face of a wide-ranging crisis involving both acute external financing pressures and rapidly changing asset prices that undermine financial stability and household and corporate balance sheets. In the end, effective solutions depend on developing a comprehensive strategy combining the full range of fiscal, monetary, financial system, and debt policy instruments. Recent experience with crises has had important implications for the IMF’s work in assessing crisis vulnerabilities. IMF surveillance work has been strengthened and a more objective framework has been developed for assessing debt sustainability, and this approach continues to be refined.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Monetary and Capital Markets Department
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498324029
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 109

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Book Description
The October 2019 Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR) identifies the current key vulnerabilities in the global financial system as the rise in corporate debt burdens, increasing holdings of riskier and more illiquid assets by institutional investors, and growing reliance on external borrowing by emerging and frontier market economies. The report proposes that policymakers mitigate these risks through stricter supervisory and macroprudential oversight of firms, strengthened oversight and disclosure for institutional investors, and the implementation of prudent sovereign debt management practices and frameworks for emerging and frontier market economies.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513569678
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 92

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Book Description
Extraordinary policy measures have eased financial conditions and supported the economy, helping to contain financial stability risks. Chapter 1 warns that there is a pressing need to act to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities while avoiding a broad tightening of financial conditions. Actions taken during the pandemic may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities. The recovery is also expected to be asynchronous and divergent between advanced and emerging market economies. Given large external financing needs, several emerging markets face challenges, especially if a persistent rise in US rates brings about a repricing of risk and tighter financial conditions. The corporate sector in many countries is emerging from the pandemic overindebted, with notable differences depending on firm size and sector. Concerns about the credit quality of hard-hit borrowers and profitability are likely to weigh on the risk appetite of banks. Chapter 2 studies leverage in the nonfinancial private sector before and during the COVID-19 crisis, pointing out that policymakers face a trade-off between boosting growth in the short term by facilitating an easing of financial conditions and containing future downside risks. This trade-off may be amplified by the existing high and rapidly building leverage, increasing downside risks to future growth. The appropriate timing for deployment of macroprudential tools should be country-specific, depending on the pace of recovery, vulnerabilities, and policy tools available. Chapter 3 turns to the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the commercial real estate sector. While there is little evidence of large price misalignments at the onset of the pandemic, signs of overvaluation have now emerged in some economies. Misalignments in commercial real estate prices, especially if they interact with other vulnerabilities, increase downside risks to future growth due to the possibility of sharp price corrections.

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 147557908X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66

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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Author: Peter Lindner
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498334237
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19

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Book Description
The financial performance of India's corporate sector has been under pressure since the Global Financial Crisis. Balance-sheet data on a large cross-section of Indian non-financial corporates show that the growth in their leverage over the last 15 years has been associated with a notable increase in the vulnerabilities of firms carrying high interest payment burdens. Gauged by the debt carried by the most vulnerable component of firms, the Indian corporate sector’s vulnerability to severe systemic shocks has increased to levels not seen since 2001. Progress on the macroeconomic front, together with improved credit appraisals and stricter impairment standards on the bank side, will be critical to help India's banks resume their role as economic growth drivers.

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475543409
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 670

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Book Description
The lingering effects of the economic crisis are still visible—this shows a clear need to improve our understanding of financial crises. This book surveys a wide range of crises, including banking, balance of payments, and sovereign debt crises. It begins with an overview of the various types of crises and introduces a comprehensive database of crises. Broad lessons on crisis prevention and management, as well as the short-term economic effects of crises, recessions, and recoveries, are discussed.