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Author: David Gray Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319633481 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 199
Book Description
This book uses empirical research to examine fluctuations and periodicities in housing markets in the United Kingdom. Chapters investigate received wisdom on housing market co-determination before exploring an unconventional approach to analysing the interaction and diffusion evidence base. Finally, the author presents varied case studies, analysing price diffusion across first-time and repeat buyer groups, regions and housing vintages, as well as related macro variables. This volume will be of interest to academics and researchers interested in the area of price diffusion across housing markets.
Author: David Gray Publisher: Springer ISBN: 3319633481 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 199
Book Description
This book uses empirical research to examine fluctuations and periodicities in housing markets in the United Kingdom. Chapters investigate received wisdom on housing market co-determination before exploring an unconventional approach to analysing the interaction and diffusion evidence base. Finally, the author presents varied case studies, analysing price diffusion across first-time and repeat buyer groups, regions and housing vintages, as well as related macro variables. This volume will be of interest to academics and researchers interested in the area of price diffusion across housing markets.
Author: Richard Barras Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 9781444310016 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 448
Book Description
The global economic crisis of 2008 was precipitated by a housing market crash, thus highlighting the destabilizing influence of the property cycle upon the wider economy. This timely book by a world authority explores why cycles occur and how they affect the behaviour of real estate markets. The central argument put forward is that growth and instability are inextricably linked, and that building investment acts both as a key driver of growth and as the source of the most volatile cyclical fluctuations in an economy. The role of building cycles in both economic growth and urban development is explored through a theoretical review and a comparative historical analysis of UK and US national data stretching back to the start of the nineteenth century, together with a case study of the development of London since the start of the eighteenth century. A simulation model of the building cycle is presented and tested using data for the City of London office market. The analysis is then broadened to examine the operation of property cycles in global investment markets during the post-war period, focussing on their contribution to the diffusion of innovation, the accumulation of wealth and the propagation of market instability. Building Cycles: growth & instability concludes by synthesizing the main themes into a theoretical framework, which can guide our understanding of the operation and impact of building cycles on the modern economy. Postgraduate students on courses in property and in urban development as well as professional property researchers, urban economists and planners will find this a stimulating read – demanding but accessible.
Author: Sung Cho Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 18
Book Description
This paper investigates the importance of housing price and quantity variables in the UK business cycle since the mid 1950s. We start with a baseline Markov-switching common factor model for the UK economy into which we incorporate a house price variable (nationwide house price index) and a quantity variable (new housing starts) into the baseline model. Then, we evaluate the importance of the two housing market variables in the fluctuations of the overall economic activities. When house variables are allowed to directly affect the evolution of key macro indicators, the results are similar to those for the US in the previous studies: although the year-on-year housing quantity changes have significant effects on the UK business cycle beyond the three macro indicators, the usual year-on-year house price changes do not. However, asymmetric decreases in house price significantly affect the UK business cycle more than the asymmetric decreases in house quantity. When house variables are accommodated to influence the probabilities of transitions between expansions and contractions, we find strong evidence that changes in both house price and quantity variables significantly affect the switching of the UK economy between the two phases, although house quantity variables predict the upcoming business cycle phases better than house price. Moreover, for both house price and quantity variables, most useful information is contained in their asymmetric decreases.
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 149833055X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
This Selected Issues paper focuses on the housing and business cycles in the United Kingdom. The UK housing cycle is highly volatile as a result of tight housing supply constraints and fluctuations in credit conditions. Housing supply-side constraints can be alleviated through changes to the planning system and tax reforms. The new National Planning Policy Framework introduced by the government is creating the incentives for local councils to increase available land for construction. There are early signs that this change in the planning system is contributing to the recovery in housing construction. Targeted macroprudential policies could address financial stability risks stemming from the housing market. Although mortgage credit as a share of gross domestic product has been declining in the current housing recovery, there are signs that there is a build-up of financial risks: loan-to-income ratios are increasing in London and among first time buyers.
Author: Mr.Philippe Bracke Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1463921314 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
This paper analyzes the duration of house price upturns and downturns in the last 40 years for 19 OECD countries. I provide two sets of results, one pertaining to the average length and the other to the length distribution. On average, upturns are longer than downturns, but the difference disappears once the last house price boom is excluded. In terms of length distribution, upturns (but not downturns) are more likely to end as their duration increases. This duration dependence is consistent with a boom-bust view of house price dynamics, where booms represent departures from fundamentals that are increasingly difficult to sustain.
Author: Maurizio d'Amato Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3031094506 Category : Political Science Languages : en Pages : 326
Book Description
This book discusses the role of the property market cycle in real estate valuation. Challenging traditional property valuation methods that rely on current market conditions and economic trends, this book argues for a re-evaluation of the relationship between property valuation and cycles in property markets. The book is divided into two parts. The first part gathers research on property market cycle analysis and the delicate problems dealing with property market information including the development of the real estate market index, appraisal bias, and the use of time series in plotting the market cycle. The second part proposes several possible modifications to the traditional income approach methodologies, including cyclical capitalization and the hedonic price method. Furthermore, this part also addresses the need for amendments to current s property valuation standards and institutional regulations. Written by an international cross-section of expert voices in market cycles and property valuation, the book is a comprehensive resource for any researcher or upper-level student studying economic volatility.
Author: John Parry Lewis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Buildings Languages : en Pages : 426
Book Description
Historical survey of the development of the construction industry as part of the economic growth of the UK - covers building cycles from 1700 (with forecasts up to 2000), the population structure, financial aspects of housing and of the real estate business, the tenants standard of living, econometrics, urban planning, regional planning. References after each chapter.
Author: Michael Ball Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 1134749678 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 416
Book Description
This new text provides a rigorous analysis of real estate markets. Three main sections cover: microeconomics of property markets the macroeconomics of commercial property the financial economics of property Global empirical examples illustrate the theories and issues. This often complex area is made accessible: each chapter contains a boxed summary and questions for self-testing or discussion.
Author: Ms.Deniz Igan Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475505671 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 56
Book Description
Housing cycles and their impact on the financial system and the macroeconomy have become the center of attention following the global financial crisis. This paper documents the characteristics of housing cycles in a large set of countries, and examines the determinants of house price movements. Empirical analysis shows that house price dynamics are mostly driven by income and demographics but fluctuations in these fundamentals and credit conditions can create deviations from the implied equilibrium path. We conclude with a discussion of the macroeconomic implications of house price corrections.
Author: Yanan Zhang Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455201782 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 31
Book Description
This paper studies the impact of housing market cycles on loss given default (LGD). Previous studies have shown that the current loan-to-value ratio (CLTV) is the most important determinant of LGD. This paper establishes another linkage which is between the house price cycles before the time of mortgage origination and LGD. The empirical analysis is based on a large loan-level sub-prime residential mortgage loss dataset from 1998 to 2009. Results show that house price history has a long memory in explaining LGD. Its explanatory power far exceeds the original LTV and other loan characteristics. This paper offers a countercyclical view of LGD risk. The model can be combined with a default probability model to serve as a regulatory prudential tool. Such a tool provides a solution to the inherent procyclical bias in BASEL II capital requirements, and can contribute to the safety and soundness of banking institutions.
Author: David Gray
Author: David Gray
Author: Richard Barras
Author: Sung Cho
Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Author: Mr.Philippe Bracke
Author: Maurizio d'Amato
Author: John Parry Lewis
Author: Michael Ball
Author: Ms.Deniz Igan
Author: Yanan Zhang