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Author: Graciela Kaminsky Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and thus they were unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises in other regions, occur when the economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, which are evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Author: Graciela Kaminsky Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The abruptness and virulence of the 1997 Asian crises have led many to claim that these crises are of a new breed and thus they were unforecastable. This paper examines 102 financial crises in 20 countries and concludes that the Asian crises are not of a new variety. Overall, the 1997 Asian crises, as well as previous crises in other regions, occur when the economies are in distress, making the degree of fragility of the economy a useful indicator of future crises. Based on this idea, the paper proposes different composite leading indicators of crises, which are evaluated in terms of accuracy both in-sample and out-of-sample.
Author: Charles H. Feinstein Publisher: Clarendon Press ISBN: 9780191521669 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 554
Book Description
The financial history of interwar Europe was dominated by catastrophic episodes of hyper-inflation, dramatic exchange rate crises, massive and destabilizing movements of gold and capital, and extensive banking failures. In their attempt to restore and sustain the gold standard as the basis of the international monetary system, many countries were compelled to resort to deflationary fiscal and monetary policies of exceptional severity. The policies thus adopted in the 1920s were a major cause of the Great Depression of 1929-33; and this in turn exerted a powerful influence on the subsequent political and economic history of the 1930s. This collection of essays is the work of an international network of economic historians from Europe and the United States convened by the European Science Foundation. It brings together, in an accessible style, current knowledge and understanding of the nature and effects of these developments in banking, currency, and finance in the interwar period. The topics are examined at three levels. In Part I a substantial introductory survey of the central issues over the entire period is followed by special studies of the banking crises, the global capital flows, and the interrelationship of economic and political policies, with each of these themes considered in an international perspective. Part II is devoted to illuminating comparative analyses of the financial and exchange policies of pairs of countries; France and Italy, Britain and Germany, Sweden and Finland, and Belgium and France. In Part III the essays move to the level of individual countries and each contributor explores topics such as the form and efficacy of official banking and monetary policies, the role of the central bank, movements in the money supply and prices, the relationship between the banks and the industrial sector, changes in exchange rates and foreign capital investment. The volume covers all the major countries, and also makes available the results of recent research on banking and finance in smaller countries, such as Spain, Austria, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Bulgaria, and Ireland. The questions addressed by this book, and the temes and patterns it reveals, are relevant both to economic and political historians of the years between the two world wars, and to those interested in contemporary banking and financial problems.
Author: Michael P. Dooley Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226155420 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 456
Book Description
The management of financial crises in emerging markets is a vital and high-stakes challenge in an increasingly global economy. For this reason, it's also a highly contentious issue in today's public policy circles. In this book, leading economists-many of whom have also participated in policy debates on these issues-consider how best to reduce the frequency and cost of such crises. The contributions here explore the management process from the beginning of a crisis to the long-term effects of the techniques used to minimize it. The first three chapters focus on the earliest responses and the immediate defense of a currency under attack, exploring whether unnecessary damage to economies can be avoided by adopting the right response within the first few days of a financial crisis. Next, contributors examine the adjustment programs that follow, considering how to design these programs so that they shorten the recovery phase, encourage economic growth, and minimize the probability of future difficulties. Finally, the last four papers analyze the actual effects of adjustment programs, asking whether they accomplish what they are designed to do-and whether, as many critics assert, they impose disproportionate costs on the poorest members of society. Recent high-profile currency crises have proven not only how harmful they can be to neighboring economies and trading partners, but also how important policy responses can be in determining their duration and severity. Economists and policymakers will welcome the insightful evaluations in this important volume, and those of its companion, Sebastian Edwards and Jeffrey A. Frankel's Preventing Currency Crises in Emerging Markets.
Author: Tim Ebner Publisher: GRIN Verlag ISBN: 3656372144 Category : Business & Economics Languages : de Pages : 67
Book Description
Bachelorarbeit aus dem Jahr 2009 im Fachbereich VWL - Internationale Wirtschaftsbeziehungen, Note: 2,3, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster (Institut für Internationale Ökonomie), Sprache: Deutsch, Abstract: The occurrence of twin crises can evoke serious recessions. From 1976 to 2002 there were 38 countries afflicted by at least one twin crisis. McKinnon and Pill (1996, 1997, 1998, 1999) set basic milestones in respect of international overborrowing and drew a linkage to twin crises. Their papers are still increasingly cited by current publications. This paper at first systemizes literature on currency, banking and twin crises and gives a review on several contributions. The second section deals with the third generation model of McKinnon and Pill concerning “The Overborrowing Syndrome”. Their key finding is that loan guarantees may lead via excessive borrowing to a twin crisis. After this, policy conclusions to counteract international overborrowing and a review on the development of theoretical overborrowing papers will complete the second section. In section three it will refer to empirical studies on crises and overborrowing. Section four closes with final remarks.
Author: Garett Jones Publisher: Springer ISBN: 1137553790 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 365
Book Description
Why do banks collapse? Are financial systems more fragile in recent decades? Can policies to fix the banking system do more harm than good? What's the history of banking crises? With dozens of brief, non-technical articles by economists and other researchers, Banking Crises offers answers from diverse scholarly viewpoints.
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1475561008 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 66
Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.
Author: Ms.Alicia García-Herrero Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1451854684 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 84
Book Description
The experiences of seven countries that have undergone banking crises show that crises have significant implications for the short-run stability of the demand for money, the money multiplier, the transmission mechanism, and the signal variables of monetary policy. Monetary and credit instability, coupled with changes in the nature of the monetary and credit aggregates, complicate monetary management. These findings may require redesigning monetary instruments in favor of faster-reacting instruments, such as open market operations, and introducing additional indicators of the monetary stance, such as asset price and exchange rate movements. More frequent reviews of monetary programs may also be necessary.
Author: Carlo Pizzinelli Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1513599860 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
To complement the early warning signals literature, we study the determinants of banking and currency crises for small states and currency boards. Building on the crisis dataset by Laeven and Valencia (2020), we estimate a binominal logit model to identify the determinants of crises, and as a case study, we apply our models to the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Our findings largely confirm past studies’ results that both external and domestic fundamentals matter in predicting crisis likelihood, but we find that small states and fixed exchange rate regimes are more sensitive to these fundamentals, compared to larger economies. Our empirical results also suggest that for currency board economies, keeping a high level of the foreign reserve cover—the “backing ratio” defined as official foreign reserves as a share of central bank demand liabilities—is critical to reduce the likelihood of both banking and currency crises. The backing ratio is particularly important during years of global economic downturn.
Author: Graciela Kaminsky
Author: Graciela Kaminsky
Author: Charles H. Feinstein
Author: Michael P. Dooley
Author: Tim Ebner
Author: Garett Jones
Author: Ilker Domaç
Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Author: Graciela L. Kaminsky
Author: Ms.Alicia García-Herrero
Author: Carlo Pizzinelli