Currencies in Turbulence: Exploring the Impact of Natural Disasters on Exchange Rates PDF Download

Author: Anh Thi Ngoc Nguyen
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 37

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Book Description
This paper investigates the impact of natural disasters on exchange rate movements in different country groups with different exchange rate regimes. Using a panel local projection model with a high-frequency monthly dataset of 177 countries during 1970M1-2019M12, we find that exchange rate movements are more sensitive to natural disasters in emerging markets and developing countries (EMDEs) than in advanced economies (AEs). Furthermore, exchange rate reactions to natural shocks depend on exchange rate regimes adopted by EMDEs. On average, both nominal and real exchange rates could depreciate up to 6 percents two years after the disasters in non-pegged regimes. Our findings suggest that EMDEs with flexible exchange rate regimes would observe a faster recovery through nominal and real depreciations, although they should be mindful about policy implications that may arise from large exchange rate fluctuations caused by natural disaster shocks.

Author: Mr.Reinout De Bock
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1616353163
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 58

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Book Description
Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Author: Mr.Reinout De Bock
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1557755302
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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Book Description
Episodes of increased global risk aversion, also known as risk-off episodes, have become more frequent and severe since 2007. During these episodes, currency markets exhibit recurrent patterns, as the Japanese yen, Swiss franc, and U.S. dollar appreciate against other G-10 and emerging market currencies. The pattern of these moves can be explained by a combination of fundamental factors, such as the nominal interest rate, the international investment position and measures of exchange rate misalignment, and market-liquidity factors, such as bid-offer spreads and restrictions on international capital flows. We also find that currency performance in a risk-off episode has become more related to a currency?s yield and relationship to broader risks in recent years.

Author: Mr.Sonali Das
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498302025
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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Book Description
China’s exchange rate regime has undergone gradual reform since the move away from a fixed exchange rate in 2005. The renminbi has become more flexible over time but is still carefully managed, and depth and liquidity in the onshore FX market is relatively low compared to other countries with de jure floating currencies. Allowing a greater role for market forces within the existing regime, and greater two-way flexibility of the exchange rate, are important steps to build on the progress already made. This should be complemented by further steps to develop the FX market, improve FX risk management, and modernize the monetary policy framework.

Author: Banco de Pagos Internacionales (Basilea, Suiza). Departamento Monetario y Económico
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789291319626
Category : Banks and banking, Central
Languages : es
Pages : 0

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Book Description

Author: Xiaolong Li
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811905649
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 846

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Book Description
The proceedings consist of papers accepted by the 5th ICEMGD, which are carefully selected and reviewed by professional reviewers from corresponding research fields and the editing committee of the conference. The papers have a diverse range of topics situated at the intersecting field of Economic Management, Public Administration and Green Development. ICEMGD is working to provide a platform for international participants from fields like macro- and microeconomics, international economics, finance, agricultural economics, health economics, business management and marketing strategies, regional development studies, social governance, and sustainable development. This proceedings volume, together with the conference, looks forward to spark inspirations and promote collaborations. It will be of interest to researchers, academics, professionals and policy makers in the field of economic management, public administration, and development studies. Due to COVID-19, ICEMGD was held online on 12-17 August, 2021.

Author: Ms.Inci Ötker
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451853548
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 38

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Book Description
This paper estimates a speculative attack model of currency crises in order to identify the role of economic fundamentals and any early warning signals of a potential currency crisis. The data from the Mexican economy was used to illustrate the model. Based on the results, a deterioration in fundamentals appears to have generated high one-step-ahead probabilities for the regime changes during the sample period 1982-1994. Particularly, increases in inflation differentials, appreciations of the real exchange rate, foreign reserve losses, expansionary monetary and fiscal policies, and increases in the share of short-term foreign currency debt appear to have contributed to the market pressures and regime changes in that period.

Author: Mr.Stijn Claessens
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475561008
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 66

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Book Description
This paper reviews the literature on financial crises focusing on three specific aspects. First, what are the main factors explaining financial crises? Since many theories on the sources of financial crises highlight the importance of sharp fluctuations in asset and credit markets, the paper briefly reviews theoretical and empirical studies on developments in these markets around financial crises. Second, what are the major types of financial crises? The paper focuses on the main theoretical and empirical explanations of four types of financial crises—currency crises, sudden stops, debt crises, and banking crises—and presents a survey of the literature that attempts to identify these episodes. Third, what are the real and financial sector implications of crises? The paper briefly reviews the short- and medium-run implications of crises for the real economy and financial sector. It concludes with a summary of the main lessons from the literature and future research directions.

Author: M. Ayhan Kose
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464815453
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 403

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Book Description
The global economy has experienced four waves of rapid debt accumulation over the past 50 years. The first three debt waves ended with financial crises in many emerging market and developing economies. During the current wave, which started in 2010, the increase in debt in these economies has already been larger, faster, and broader-based than in the previous three waves. Current low interest rates mitigate some of the risks associated with high debt. However, emerging market and developing economies are also confronted by weak growth prospects, mounting vulnerabilities, and elevated global risks. A menu of policy options is available to reduce the likelihood that the current debt wave will end in crisis and, if crises do take place, will alleviate their impact.

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.