Crude Oil Prices, as Determined by OPEC and Market Fundamentals PDF Download

Author: Paul W. MacAvoy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 234

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Author: PW. MacAvoy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 8

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Author: Samya Beidas-Strom
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1498333486
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 34

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How much does speculation contribute to oil price volatility? We revisit this contentious question by estimating a sign-restricted structural vector autoregression (SVAR). First, using a simple storage model, we show that revisions to expectations regarding oil market fundamentals and the effect of mispricing in oil derivative markets can be observationally equivalent in a SVAR model of the world oil market à la Kilian and Murphy (2013), since both imply a positive co-movement of oil prices and inventories. Second, we impose additional restrictions on the set of admissible models embodying the assumption that the impact from noise trading shocks in oil derivative markets is temporary. Our additional restrictions effectively put a bound on the contribution of speculation to short-term oil price volatility (lying between 3 and 22 percent). This estimated short-run impact is smaller than that of flow demand shocks but possibly larger than that of flow supply shocks.

Author: Mr. Andrea Pescatori
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 30

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This paper studies the historical importance of OPEC for oil price fluctuations. An event-study approach is used to identify the effects of OPEC announcements on oil price fluctuations. Results show that price volatility is higher than typical around OPEC meetings. Also, members' compliance, a proxy for credibility, has strongly fluctuated over time. An ordered multinomial logit framework identifies the main factors that explain OPEC's decisions to cut, maintain, or boost members' oil production and is able to successfully predict OPEC meeting outcomes 66 percent of the time, between 1989 and 2019. Cyclical oil price fluctuations (as opposed to persistent shifts in levels) drive OPEC’s decisions, suggesting that OPEC's objective is to stabilize the oil price rather than countering fundamental shifts in demand and supply. Low OPEC’s market share reduces the probability of a production cut. Finally, the transparency of OPEC's statements has modestly improved between 2002 and 2019.

Author: Paul Horsnell
Publisher: Oxford University Press, USA
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 360

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The market for North Sea Brent Oil directly determines the price of over one-half of the world trade in crude oil. This study analyzes the workings of the oil market and describes how crude oil prices are determined throughout the world. It covers OPEC pricing, futures markets for oil, the impact of the UK taxation regime, and the mechanisms by which the world price of oil is determined. The text should be of benefit to those working in the areas of futures and forward markets, OPEC behaviour, North Sea oil, oil taxation and oil prices.

Author: Jacques Crémer
Publisher: Psychology Press
ISBN: 9780415274616
Category : Petroleum industry and trade
Languages : en
Pages : 128

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Economists have proposed a large variety of models of the oil market and this survey integrates them in a coherent framework.

Author: Nawaf Al-Roomy
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Collective bargaining
Languages : en
Pages : 702

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Author: Hossein Razavi
Publisher: Praeger
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238

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Until as recently as the late 1970s, the main channel for oil distribution was the integrated system of the major oil companies, while the volume of spot trading was limited to roughly 5 percent of the total oil trade. Today, spot and spot-related deals account for 80 to 85 percent of internationally traded petroleum, and have ushered in a new era of petroleum trading. In this work, Hossein Razavi and Fereidun Fesharaki offer a detailed study of the workings and issues surrounding today's oil trading market as they apply to all parties involved in the production, distribution, and consumption of petroleum. They provide a complete description of petroleum spot markets, futures, and options trading, and their interlinkages with contract sales. Razavi and Fesharaki cover a wide range of topics, and challenge the generally accepted view that spot and futures trading have wrested the power of price setting away from OPEC. They claim that prices are still determined by supply, which OPEC continues to influence. The book is divided into four sections, beginning with an overview of recent developments in spot, futures, and contract trading. Section two provides an analysis of spot and spot-related deals, while the third section describes the mechanics, organization, and evolution of petroleum futures markets and options trading. The work concludes with an in-depth section on interlinkages, examining the interactions among various segments of the market, including spot and futures trading, petroleum stock building, and OPEC. This book will be a valuable resource tool for libraries as well as a wide range of users, from oil industry professionals and financial analysts to students of energy-related topics.

Author: Marek Krzysztof Kolodziej
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 188

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Abstract: Beginning in 2004, the price of crude oil fluctuates rapidly over a wide range. Large and rapid price increases have recessionary consequences and dampen long-term infrastructural investment. I investigate whether price changes are driven by market fundamentals or speculation. With regard to market fundamentals, I revisit econometric evidence for the importance of demand shocks, as proxied by dry maritime cargo rates, on oil prices. When I eliminate transportation costs from both sides of the equation, disaggregate OPEC and non-OPEC production, and allow for more than one cointegrating relation, I find that previous specifications are inconsistent with arguments that demand shocks play an important role. Instead, results confirm the importance of OPEC supply shocks. I investigate two channels by which speculation may affect oil prices; the direct effect of trader behavior and changes in oil from a commodity to a financial asset. With regard to trader behavior, I find evidence that trader positions are required to explain the spread between spot and futures prices of crude oil on the New York Mercantile Exchange. The inclusion of trader positions clarifies the process of equilibrium error correction, such that there is bidirectional causality between prices and trader positions. This creates the possibility of speculative bubbles. With regard to oil as a commodity and/or financial asset, I use a Kalman Filter model to estimate the time-varying partial correlation between returns to investments in equity and oil markets. This correlation changes from negative to positive at the onset of the 2008 financial crisis. The low interest rates used to rescue the economy depress convenience yields, which reduces the benefits of holding oil as a commodity. Instead, oil becomes a financial asset (on net) as the oil market changed from contango to backwardation. Contradicting simple political narratives, my research suggests that both market fundamentals and speculation drive large oil prices. Chinese oil demand is not responsible for large increases in oil prices; nor are they caused by behavioral idiosyncrasies by oil traders. Finally, oil will be treated largely as a financial asset so long as interest rates are held near their all-time lows.