Author: Rajiv D. Banker Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 57
Book Description
We investigate how the arrival of Estimize, a provider of crowdsourced earnings forecasts, impacts IBES analysts' forecast timeliness and facilitates market efficiency. We find that IBES analysts become more responsive to earnings announcements and start issuing their quarterly forecasts earlier when faced with competition from Estimize. The Estimize effect is strongest when Estimize quarterly forecasts pose a direct competitive threat to IBES -- when Estimize forecasts are present within 3 days of earnings announcements (i.e., are issued early). Specifically, IBES analysts become more responsive to earnings announcements post Estimize, and issue more than 9% of their one-quarter-ahead forecasts earlier in the quarter when early Estimize coverage is present in the prior quarter. We also document that this increased responsiveness of IBES analysts facilitates market efficiency as it results in greater immediate market reaction to earnings surprises and mostly eliminates the post-earnings-announcement drift.
Author: Russell Jame Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 48
Book Description
Crowdsourcing -- when a task normally performed by employees is outsourced to a large network of people via an open call -- is making inroads into the investment research industry. We shed light on this new phenomenon by examining the value of crowdsourced earnings forecasts. Our sample includes 51,012 forecasts provided by Estimize, an open platform that solicits and reports forecasts from over 3,000 contributors. We find that Estimize forecasts are incrementally useful in forecasting earnings and measuring the market's expectations of earnings. Our results are stronger when the number of Estimize contributors is larger, consistent with the benefits of crowdsourcing increasing with the size of the crowd. Finally, Estimize consensus revisions generate significant two-day size-adjusted returns. The combined evidence suggests that crowdsourced forecasts are a useful, supplementary source of information in capital markets.
Author: Lawrence D. Brown Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 54
Book Description
A growing number of studies use crowdsourced data to draw inferences regarding information relevance. To bolster research using crowdsourced data and to allow researchers to draw stronger inferences regarding information relevance, we examine the reliability of online biographies using earnings forecasts provided by Estimize contributors. We examine if: (1) biographical information provided by Estimize contributors are reliable; (2) forecast quality is conditional on whether contributors provide their biographical information and names; and (3) contributors who provide their biographical information but withhold their identities make forecasts with different characteristics than those who provide their biographical information and identities. We find Estimize buy siders behave similarly to buy siders documented in prior studies, and Estimize sell siders (especially brokers) are similar to sell siders documented in prior studies. We show that, relative to other Estimize contributors, brokers' forecasts are more akin to IBES in that they are: made closer in time to IBES forecasts, more likely to be within one penny of IBES forecasts, and as biased as IBES forecasts. We find that contributors who reveal their biographical information are more active on the Estimize platform and issue higher quality forecasts. Finally, we document that known brokers are more pessimistic than anonymous brokers.
Author: Leigh Drogen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 13
Book Description
In our paper, "Generating Abnormal Returns Using Crowdsourced Earnings Forecasts From Estimize" we examine consensus EPS and Revenue forecasts derived from the crowdsourced community Estimize, and find that they are more accurate than traditional Wall Street equity analysts' consensus forecasts. We then design a profitable strategy which trades on earnings surprises as benchmarked against Estimize. Finally, we demonstrate that a strategy which exploits the differences between the Wall Street and Estimize expectations prior to earnings dates earns excess returns, particularly among large cap stocks.
Author: Biljana Adebambo Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 61
Book Description
Using a novel dataset containing the forecasts of both buy-side and sell-side analysts, and individual investors, we find that crowdsourced earnings forecasts are more accurate than expert forecasts of sell-side analysts. Examining the economic mechanisms that generate superior crowd forecasts, we find that the diversity of contributors and their geographical proximity to firm locations improve forecast accuracy. The crowdsourced consensus is a better measure of the market's true earnings expectations as earnings surprise based on this consensus generates stronger market reactions. A trading strategy based on the difference between the two consensus estimates yields an abnormal 10-day return of 0.465-1.975%.
Author: Joshua A. Khavis Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 112
Book Description
I explore whether participation on Estimize.com, a crowdsourced earnings-forecasting platform aimed primarily at novices, improves professional analysts' forecast accuracy and career outcomes. Estimize provides its contributors with frequent and timely feedback on their forecast performance and offers them a new channel for disseminating their forecasts to a wider public, features that could help analysts improve their forecast accuracy and raise their online visibility. Using proprietary data obtained from Estimize and a difference-in-differences research design, I find that IBES analysts who are active on Estimize improve their EPS forecast accuracy by 13% relative to the sample-mean forecast error, as well as reduce forecast bias. These improvements in performance vary predictably in ways consistent with learning through feedback. Additionally, I find increased market reaction to the positive earnings-forecasts revisions issued by analysts who are active on Estimize. I also find that analysts active on Estimize enjoy incremental positive career outcomes after controlling for forecast accuracy. My results suggest that professional analysts can learn to become better forecasters through online feedback and consequently garner more attention from the market. My results also suggest analysts can improve their career outcomes by gaining additional online visibility.
Author: Rajiv D. Banker
Author: Russell Jame
Author: Lawrence D. Brown
Author: Leigh Drogen
Author: Biljana Adebambo
Author: A. Rashad Abdel-Khalik
Author: Joshua A. Khavis
Author: Lise Newman Graham
Author: Richard William Vanderdrift
Author: Francis A. Lees