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Author: Rui Zeng Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
I present empirical evidence that the TED spread is a priced risk factor in the cross sectional stock returns. Stocks with higher exposure to the change in the TED spread require higher returns, and the return difference between the high sensitivity portfolio and the low sensitivity portfolio is a significant 6.6% annually. Individual stocks within the two extreme TED beta portfolios are more likely to be financially distressed, which is consistent with the documented hump-shaped relationship between expected return and default probability in Garlappi, Tao, and Yan (2008). The TED factor shows enhanced forecasting ability within non-crisis periods, and the size effect shows up only within the group of most distressed firms. This paper uncovers a systematic channel to reconcile the positive risk premium and negative risk premium found within the financially distressed stocks, and provide strong empirical evidence for the effect of credit supplying activities on corporate financing behaviors and stock performances.
Author: Rui Zeng Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
I present empirical evidence that the TED spread is a priced risk factor in the cross sectional stock returns. Stocks with higher exposure to the change in the TED spread require higher returns, and the return difference between the high sensitivity portfolio and the low sensitivity portfolio is a significant 6.6% annually. Individual stocks within the two extreme TED beta portfolios are more likely to be financially distressed, which is consistent with the documented hump-shaped relationship between expected return and default probability in Garlappi, Tao, and Yan (2008). The TED factor shows enhanced forecasting ability within non-crisis periods, and the size effect shows up only within the group of most distressed firms. This paper uncovers a systematic channel to reconcile the positive risk premium and negative risk premium found within the financially distressed stocks, and provide strong empirical evidence for the effect of credit supplying activities on corporate financing behaviors and stock performances.
Author: Doron Avramov Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 37
Book Description
Low credit risk firms realize higher returns than high credit risk firms. This effect is puzzling because investors seem to pay a premium for bearing credit risk. This paper shows that the credit risk effect manifests itself due to the poor performance of low-rated stocks during periods of financial distress at least three months before and after credit rating downgrades. Around downgrades, low-rated firms experience considerable negative returns amid strong institutional selling, whereas returns do not differ across credit risk groups in stable or improving credit conditions. Remarkably, the group of low-rated stocks driving the credit risk effect accounts for about 4.2% of the total market capitalization. Isolating the credit risk effect to a limited number of firms in a specific set of circumstance allows us to distinguish between its potential explanations. Our evidence points away from risk-based explanations, and towards mispricing generated by retail investors and sustained by illiquidity and short sell constraints.
Author: Charles W. Calomiris Publisher: ISBN: Category : Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
We study stock returns over the period of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 and identify three crisis "shock factors" related to unique features of the crisis: (1) the collapse of global demand, (2) the contraction of credit supply, and (3) selling pressure on firms' equity. All three of these "shock factors" are reflected in large and statistically significant influences on residual equity returns during the crisis period (after controlling for normal risk factors that are associated with expected returns). Similar analysis for the placebo period of August 2005-December 2006 shows that the influences identified during the 2007-2008 sample period are unique to the crisis. A month-by-month analysis shows that the time variation of the importance of each of the shock factors tracks related changes in the global economic environment.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Abstract: We study stock returns over the period of the global financial crisis of 2007-2008 and identify three crisis â??shock factorsâ?? related to unique features of the crisis: (1) the collapse of global demand, (2) the contraction of credit supply, and (3) selling pressure on firms' equity. All three of these â??shock factorsâ?? are reflected in large and statistically significant influences on residual equity returns during the crisis period (after controlling for normal risk factors that are associated with expected returns). Similar analysis for the placebo period of August 2005-December 2006 shows that the influences identified during the 2007-2008 sample period are unique to the crisis. A month-by-month analysis shows that the time variation of the importance of each of the shock factors tracks related changes in the global economic environment
Author: Francesco Manaresi Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498315917 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 75
Book Description
We study the impact of bank credit on firm productivity. We exploit a matched firm-bank database covering all the credit relationships of Italian corporations, together with a natural experiment, to measure idiosyncratic supply-side shocks to credit availability and to estimate a production model augmented with financial frictions. We find that a contraction in credit supply causes a reduction of firm TFP growth and also harms IT-adoption, innovation, exporting, and adoption of superior management practices, while a credit expansion has limited impact. Quantitatively, the credit contraction between 2007 and 2009 accounts for about a quarter of observed the decline in TFP.
Author: Spencer Arnott Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
This thesis addresses a fundamental topic in financial economics: the effects of distress risk in the cross section of equities returns. Initial results show that both raw and risk-adjusted excess returns are rising in distress risk, and the remainder of this thesis examines the general robustness of the distress premium. Accordingly, the additional excess returns to stocks having heightened levels of financial distress are contingent upon the stock price being low. These findings are then extended to demonstrate that these same stocks are also microcap firms, thus attributing the anomalous behaviour of distressed stocks to a common factor with many other market anomalies. The economic implication is that arbitrage profits are likely to be limited due to the high transaction costs alongside the limited investment capacity with associated low-priced, microcap stocks.
Author: Zhenmei Zhu Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 145
Book Description
In this thesis, I examine the following three temporal influences on the cross-section of stock returns: disclosure and analyst regulations, the subprime credit crisis, and time-varying investor sentiment. The thesis consists of three essays. The first essay deals with the influence of regulation. Between 2000 and 2003 a series of disclosure and analyst regulations curbing abusive financial reporting and analyst behavior were enacted to strengthen the information environment of U.S. capital markets. I investigate whether these regulations benefited investors by increasing stock market efficiency. After the regulations, I find a significant reduction in short-term stock price continuation following analyst forecast revisions and past stock returns. The effect was more pronounced among higher information uncertainty firms, where I expect security valuation to be most sensitive to the regulations. Further analysis shows that analyst forecast accuracy improved in these firms, consistent with reduced mispricing being due to an improved corporate information environment following the regulations. My findings are robust to controlling for time trends, trading activity, the recent financial crisis, and changes in firms' analyst coverage status and delistings. In the second essay, I examine whether the value premium survived the recent subprime credit crisis. I find that value stocks underperformed growth stocks during the crisis, resulting in a value discount, while the value premium was significantly positive before the crisis. This is consistent with value stocks being riskier than growth stocks because they are more vulnerable during bad times. The value premium reversal during the crisis worked primarily through financially constrained firms, suggesting that the effect was due to the adverse influence of the crisis rather than confounding effects. The results are robust to controlling for common risk factors and alternative financial constraint proxies. The third essay is related to time-varying investor sentiment. Recent literature in financial economics has examined whether investor sentiment affects asset pricing. An open question is whether an investor sentiment effect reflects mispricing or risk compensation. Currently, the literature supports the former view by documenting that investor sentiment predicts realized stock returns beyond the explanatory power of state-of-the-art factor models. But, despite its popularity, estimating expected returns from realized returns has limitations. I re-examine the evidence on investor sentiment using accounting-based implied costs of capital (ICCs). I find that ICCs cannot explain the sentiment effect on stock returns. If ICCs are reliable expected return proxies, this suggests that the investor sentiment effect does not exist ex ante and confirms previous evidence that mispricing is the driving force behind the investor sentiment effect on stock returns.
Author: Thomas J. George Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 55
Book Description
We revisit findings that returns are negatively related to financial distress intensity and leverage. These are puzzles under frictionless capital markets assumptions, but consistent with optimizing firms that differ in their exposure to financial distress costs. Firms with high costs choose low leverage to avoid distress, but retain exposure to the systematic risk of bearing such costs in low states. Empirical results are consistent with this explanation. The return premiums to low leverage and low distress are significant in raw returns, and even stronger in risk-adjusted returns. When in distress, low leverage firms suffer more than high leverage firms as measured by a deterioration in accounting operating performance and heightened exposure to systematic risk. The connection between return premiums and distress costs is apparent in subperiod evidencemdash;both are small or insignificant prior to 1980 and larger and significant thereafter.
Author: Joseph G. Haubrich Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226921964 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 286
Book Description
In the aftermath of the recent financial crisis, the federal government has pursued significant regulatory reforms, including proposals to measure and monitor systemic risk. However, there is much debate about how this might be accomplished quantitatively and objectively—or whether this is even possible. A key issue is determining the appropriate trade-offs between risk and reward from a policy and social welfare perspective given the potential negative impact of crises. One of the first books to address the challenges of measuring statistical risk from a system-wide persepective, Quantifying Systemic Risk looks at the means of measuring systemic risk and explores alternative approaches. Among the topics discussed are the challenges of tying regulations to specific quantitative measures, the effects of learning and adaptation on the evolution of the market, and the distinction between the shocks that start a crisis and the mechanisms that enable it to grow.
Author: Rui Zeng
Author: Rui Zeng
Author: Doron Avramov
Author: Stijn Claessens
Author: Charles W. Calomiris
Author: 
Author: Francesco Manaresi
Author: Spencer Arnott
Author: Zhenmei Zhu
Author: Thomas J. George
Author: Joseph G. Haubrich