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Author: Qi Zhang Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 306
Book Description
Exploring the main factors that determine bond spreads with respect to Treasury rates is one of the most critical issues in the corporate debt market. Credit risk has long been perceived as the most important determinant of bond spreads (Fisher, 1959). One of the most critical parameters in credit risk models is asset volatility, which includes idiosyncratic and systematic components. However, these models do not distinguish between them. Chapter 2 investigates the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on bond portfolio spreads between 2000 and 2010. While the prediction of traditional asset pricing models is that firm-specific risk should be diversified away at aggregate level, I find idiosyncratic volatility plays an incremental role in explaining bond portfolio spreads beyond the market factors. Recovery is an important measurement of credit risk additional to default probability. Chapter 3 focuses on the estimation of firm recovery after bankruptcy using the Leland and Toft (1996) model. Using a large sample of Chapter 11 filings from 1996 to 2007, I find that the recovery derived from the Leland and Toft model has strong explanatory power on the debt recovery observed in the market. Recent literature finds that all extant credit risk models significantly underestimate bond spreads, especially for investment grade bonds of short maturity. Chapter 4 identifies a heretofore ignored component, perceived accounting misstatement, by regressing bond spreads on the proxy of accounting misstatement propensity, while controlling for issuers' default risk and bond illiquidity risk between January 1994 and June 2002. My thesis deepens the understanding of bond price discovery mechanisms and presents an important challenge for future research to incorporate the strong empirical relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and bond yields in asset pricing models. My thesis also sheds light on the accurate prediction of debt recovery, which is important to the valuation and hedging of risky debt and credit derivatives. Furthermore, my thesis assists in solving the credit spread puzzle by identifying a new risk factor. Overall, my thesis provides new insights into research on the corporate debt market and has important implications for academic scholars and market practitioners.
Author: Qi Zhang Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 306
Book Description
Exploring the main factors that determine bond spreads with respect to Treasury rates is one of the most critical issues in the corporate debt market. Credit risk has long been perceived as the most important determinant of bond spreads (Fisher, 1959). One of the most critical parameters in credit risk models is asset volatility, which includes idiosyncratic and systematic components. However, these models do not distinguish between them. Chapter 2 investigates the impact of idiosyncratic volatility on bond portfolio spreads between 2000 and 2010. While the prediction of traditional asset pricing models is that firm-specific risk should be diversified away at aggregate level, I find idiosyncratic volatility plays an incremental role in explaining bond portfolio spreads beyond the market factors. Recovery is an important measurement of credit risk additional to default probability. Chapter 3 focuses on the estimation of firm recovery after bankruptcy using the Leland and Toft (1996) model. Using a large sample of Chapter 11 filings from 1996 to 2007, I find that the recovery derived from the Leland and Toft model has strong explanatory power on the debt recovery observed in the market. Recent literature finds that all extant credit risk models significantly underestimate bond spreads, especially for investment grade bonds of short maturity. Chapter 4 identifies a heretofore ignored component, perceived accounting misstatement, by regressing bond spreads on the proxy of accounting misstatement propensity, while controlling for issuers' default risk and bond illiquidity risk between January 1994 and June 2002. My thesis deepens the understanding of bond price discovery mechanisms and presents an important challenge for future research to incorporate the strong empirical relationship between idiosyncratic volatility and bond yields in asset pricing models. My thesis also sheds light on the accurate prediction of debt recovery, which is important to the valuation and hedging of risky debt and credit derivatives. Furthermore, my thesis assists in solving the credit spread puzzle by identifying a new risk factor. Overall, my thesis provides new insights into research on the corporate debt market and has important implications for academic scholars and market practitioners.
Author: Hsien-Hsing Liao Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
The recent global financial crisis reveals the important role of internal liquidity risk in corporate credit risk. However, hardly have any existing studies investigated its effects on bond yield spreads. This study employs both bond- and market-level data to address the issue. Bond-level results show that corporate internal liquidity volatility significantly impacts bond yield spreads when controlling for well-known variables, traditional accounting measures of corporate debt servicing ability and an additional structural form credit risk measure (the cash flow volatility). Further, this study finds that a systematic internal liquidity risk factor can materially capture market-wide bond yield spread changes. Market-level results also show that market-level internal liquidity risk significantly explains the spreads of bond indexes when controlling for factors of bond and equity markets and other major macro state variables. We conclude that internal liquidity risk should be incorporated into bond yield spread modeling.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Employing a comprehensive database on transactions of corporate bonds issued by corporations, agencies and financial institutions, we compare the different liquidity measures--bid-ask spread, zero-return percentage, Amihud illiquidity factor for the corporate bond market. The criteria of judging is based on the explanatory power of different liquidity measures in determining yield spread over the benchmark curve (equivalent-maturity Treasury bond or notes). The conclusion is that liquidity plays a role in determining corporate bond yield spread. There are significant differences in the explanatory power of the different liquidity measures; among the liquidity measures, zero-return percentage works best. Preliminary findings, based on the mean correlation analysis and portfolios approach, give the intuitive results of suggesting that zero-return percentage is a better predictor of yields spread than the other liquidity measures--bid-ask spread and Amihud illiquidity factor. Controlling the effect of credit rating, the zero-return percentage increases R-square dramatically, with incremental R-square of 7%. Model specification test shows that the model with zero-return percentage as liquidity measures gives the smallest BIC whatever form the models are. We also compare the zero-return percentage with trading-based liquidity measure. The results show that zero-return percentage is more powerful in explaining yield spread than other liquidity measures.
Author: Srichander Ramaswamy Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 0471488321 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 256
Book Description
Expert guidance on managing credit risk in bond portfolios Managing Credit Risk in Corporate Bond Portfolios shows readers howto measure and manage the risks of a corporate bond portfolioagainst its benchmark. This comprehensive guide explores a widerange of topics surrounding credit risk and bond portfolios,including the similarities and differences between corporate andgovernment bond portfolios, yield curve risk, default and creditmigration risk, Monte Carlo simulation techniques, and portfolioselection methods. Srichander Ramaswamy, PhD (Basel, Switzerland), is Head ofInvestment Analysis at the Bank for International Settlements (BIS)in Basel, Switzerland, and Adjunct Professor of Banking andFinance, University of Lausanne.
Author: Arne Wilkes Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften ISBN: 9783631606049 Category : Bond market Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Credit spreads express how markets evaluate the riskiness of corporate bonds compared to risk-free investments. Since credit spreads have been highly volatile especially during the last decade it is important for academics and practitioners alike to understand the dynamic interdependencies between credit spreads and their determinants. Based on a sample of European corporate bonds and different macroeconomic variables the author analyzes the determinants of credit spreads during the period of 1999 to 2009. With a macro-finance term structure model he shows that the European corporate bond market is largely integrated with some remaining segmentation. Furthermore, panel regressions yield that declining liquidity leads to a significant widening of credit spreads especially during the recent financial crisis. Finally, he demonstrates based on a cointegration analysis that a long-term relationship exists between credit spreads and their determinants and that credit spreads were significantly overpriced after the collapse of Lehman Brothers but have almost returned to equilibrium towards the end of 2009.
Author: Jean Helwege Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 43
Book Description
Corporate bond spreads are affected by both credit risk and liquidity and it is difficult to disentangle the two factors empirically. In this paper we separate out the credit risk component by examining bonds that are issued by the same firm and that trade on the same day. Our sample of bond pairs provides two yield spreads which, if they differ, vary only because of differences in liquidity. We then investigate the determinants of the differences in yield spreads. We find that standard liquidity measures do a poor job of explaining spreads, and that incorporating the information from other bonds issued by the firm and from bonds of other firms can significantly improve the explanatory power of those liquidity measures. Still, a significant portion of the spread is left unexplained and it is largely driven by a common unknown factor. We conclude that good proxies for the liquidity component of corporate bond spreads remain elusive.
Author: Lewis Webber Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Sterling, dollar and euro-denominated corporate bond spreads narrowed substantially between late 2002 and mid-2007, but widened abruptly during the recent financial market turmoil. This article uses a structural credit risk model to examine the extent to which movements in spreads over the past decade have been driven by credit and non-credit related factors. Compensation for bearing non-credit related illiquidity risk appears to have been a particularly important driver of high-yield spreads, including during the recent financial market turmoil, but the compensation required for credit risk has also increased recently.
Author: Christopher L. Culp Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
We present a novel empirical benchmark for analyzing credit risk using “pseudo firms” that purchase traded assets financed with equity and zero-coupon bonds. By no-arbitrage, pseudo bonds are equivalent to Treasuries minus put options on pseudo-firm assets. Empirically, like corporate spreads, pseudo-bond spreads are large, countercyclical, and predict lower economic growth. Using this framework, we find that bond market illiquidity, investors' over-estimation of default risks, and corporate frictions do not seem to explain excessive observed credit spreads, but, instead, a risk premium for tail and idiosyncratic asset risks is the primary determinant of corporate spreads.
Author: Frederick L. Feldkamp Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118935802 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 220
Book Description
Applying the Lessons of History to Understanding Fraud Today and Tomorrow Financial Stability provides a roadmap by which the world can anticipate and avoid future financial disruptions. This unique discussion of past and present financial events offers new insights that explain economic, political, and legal antecedents of financial crises in Western markets. With a detailed discussion of the history of finance, this book shows modern investors and finance professionals how to learn from past successes and failures to gauge future market threats. Readers will gain new insight into the antecedents of todays financial markets and the political economy that surrounds them. Armed with this knowledge, they will be able to craft a strategy that steers away from financial disorder and toward maximum stability. Coverage includes discussion of capital, forecasting, and political reaction, and past, present, and future applications within all realms of business. The companion website offers additional data and research, providing a complete resource for those seeking a better understanding of the risk at hand. As the world struggles to emerge from the latest financial crisis, professionals in finance, the law and other disciplines, and the people they advise, are searching for understanding to avoid future crises. Financial Stability argues that the best lessons are learned from our own mistakes, and that the ability to look ahead depends upon our willingness to look back. Readers will: Review the historical laws, practices, and outcomes that shaped the modern day financial markets of the great western economies Understand the theory of financial stability, the roles of law and transparency, and the importance of action to punish fraud in order to prevent future contagion Work through the theoretical proofs in terms of math, law, accounting, economics, philosophy, and international trade Build a strategy for the future with consideration toward needs, sources, balance, and learning from past mistakes Everywhere around the globe, at all points in history, financial crises have always been rooted in the confluence of politics, finance, and law. Financial Stability puts the latest global financial crisis in perspective, highlighting the lessons we have already learned, and those we need to internalize today.
Author: Qi Zhang
Author: Qi Zhang
Author: Hsien-Hsing Liao
Author: Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Author: 
Author: Srichander Ramaswamy
Author: Arne Wilkes
Author: Jean Helwege
Author: Lewis Webber
Author: Christopher L. Culp
Author: Frederick L. Feldkamp