Country Economic Forecast : Nigeria PDF Download

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Languages : en
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Author: Emmanuel Igbinoba
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3656960356
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 19

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Essay from the year 2014 in the subject Business economics - General, , language: English, abstract: This paper assesses the Thirwall's balance of payment(BOP) constrained model by applying it on the Nigerian economy and employing cointegration method to observe the relationship between economic growth and current account balance equilibrium. While extensive research study on economic growth concentrate on the neoclassical supply-oriented approach based on the production function and full employment, Harrod(1939) emphasized that demand generated growth determine long run economic growth and Thirwall developed a Keynesian perspective of the determinants of growth embedded on a dynamic version of the Harrod's foreign trade multiplier. Thirwall pinpoints the incapability of economic agents to increase aggregate demand indefinitely in open economies as justification for income growth differences across nations. The balance of payment constrained growth model states that a country's economic growth rate is constrained by the desire to generate foreign exchange and reiterate the function of demand as the motivation for domestic growth. This arises because growth in export and investment growth in import substitution are the only aspect of aggregate demand that can increase GDP growth and reduce foreign constraints. This implies that growth rate is constrained by the balance of payment as the economy cannot grow faster than what is consistent with the balance of payment equilibrium. The principle of this Keynesian demand side growth theory is that export capability and import attitude establish long run economic growth. Income derived from external trade constitute the principal medium to finance growing import due to a rise in domestic activities. This model differ from the supply induced growth models which evaluate economic growth by using factor inputs such as savings, human and physical capital, population growth and initial per capital GDP on economic growth. Reservations about the traditional growth models stem from the fact that the factor inputs have inconclusive roles in the growth process in developing countries. Also a lot of the neoclassical assumptions have been observed to be unapplicable in developing or transition economies. The balance of payment constrained model infer that economic growth are stimulated by demand factors and the main constraint on demand is the balance of payment.

Author: Andam, Kwaw S.
Publisher: Intl Food Policy Res Inst
ISBN:
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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In this paper we analyze the economic impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and the policies adopted to curtail the spread of the disease in Nigeria. We carry out simulations using a multiplier model based on the 2018 Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) for Nigeria, which includes supply-use tables for 284 goods and services. The pandemic’s global reach and impact on the global economy combined with the response policies in Nigeria represent a large, sudden shock to the country’s economy. The SAM multiplier model is well-suited for measuring the short-term direct and indirect results of this type of shock because the SAM represents both the structure of the economy and the interactions among economic actors via commodity and factor markets. Our analysis focuses on the five-week lockdown implemented by the federal government across the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja and Lagos and Ogun states from late March to early May 2020, the federal lockdown for Kano from mid-April, and the state-level lockdowns that were implemented from mid-April for around seven weeks in Akwa Ibom, Borno, Ekiti, Kwara, Osun, Rivers, and Taraba states. We estimate that during the lockdown periods Nigeria’s GDP suffered a 34.1 percent loss due to COVID-19, amounting to USD 16 billion, with two-thirds of the losses coming from the services sector. The agriculture sector, which serves as the primary means of livelihood for most Nigerians, suffered a 13.1 percent loss in output (USD 1.2 billion). Although primary agricultural activities were excluded from the direct restrictions on economic activities imposed in the lockdown zones, the broader agri-food system was affected indirectly because of its linkages with the rest of the economy. We estimate that households lost on average 33 percent of their incomes during the period, with the heaviest losses occurring for rural non-farm and for urban households. The economic impacts of COVID-19 include a 14-percentage point temporary increase in the poverty headcount rate for Nigeria, implying that 27 million additional people fell below the poverty line during lockdown. Lastly, we consider economic recovery scenarios as the COVID-19 policies are being relaxed during the latter part of 2020. Our findings have implications for understanding the direct and indirect impacts of COVID-19, for policy design during the recovery period, and for planning future disease prevention measures while protecting livelihoods and maintaining economic growth.

Author: Erhunse Confidence
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3346117197
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 10

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Seminar paper from the year 2020 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: 4, Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University (Social Sciences), language: English, abstract: This paper examined the implication of Big-Push theory on Nigerian economic development. The theory provided an explanation of how developing countries can industrialize through broad-based investment and coordination. The paper looked at the meaning of Big-Push theory, assumptions and its implication on Nigeria economic development. If the need for a Big Push to survive in an economy that is open to international trade and capital movements, or if openness to trade and capital movements is sufficient to overcome all poverty traps, these questions have daunted development economics since its inception. The theory of the big push asserts that underdeveloped countries require large amounts of investments to come out of the problem of backwardness and launch policies for economic development. The logic behind this theory is that a programme of “bit-by-bit” investment will not have much impact on the process of growth and will only lead to a dissipation of resources. Policies designed to encourage the development of the Nigerian economy will need to be guided by the big-push theory.

Author: Micah Effiong
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3346137627
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Research Paper (undergraduate) from the year 2016 in the subject Economics - Economic Cycle and Growth, grade: A, , language: English, abstract: The study was conducted to evaluate the impact of inflation on economic growth in the context of an emerging market using empirical evidence from Nigeria. Using time series data spanning forty one years (1970-2011) which was obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin volume 22, and Central Bank of Nigeria official website, the nature of the relationship existing between the focus variables - economic growth (proxied by real Gross Domestic Product, GDP) and inflation rate was explored. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) and Philip-Perron (PP) tests were used to test for the stationary of the variables while the granger causality test was employed to ascertain the direction of influence between inflation and economic growth in Nigeria. The follow research questions guided this study: What is the trend of inflation in Nigeria? Why have all the policies used unable to reduce inflation rate to an acceptable level? What is the impact of inflation of Nigerian economic growth? Inflation growth has been the macro-economic problem in Nigeria that seems to be intractable over the years; Nigeria government has adopted various measures (both monetary and fiscal policies) to curb or reduce inflation growth to an acceptable level but all these policies seem to have no effects. This gave rise to the following research questions.

Author: Zainab Usman
Publisher: Zed Books
ISBN: 1786993953
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Nigeria has for long been regarded as the poster child for the 'curse' of oil wealth. Yet despite this, Nigeria achieved strong economic growth for over a decade in the 21st century, driven largely by policy reforms in non-oil sectors. This open access book argues that Nigeria's major development challenge is not the 'oil curse', but rather one of achieving economic diversification beyond oil, subsistence agriculture, informal activities, and across its subnational entities. Through analysis drawing on economic data, policy documents, and interviews, Usman argues that Nigeria's challenge of economic diversification is situated within the political setting of an unstable distribution of power among individual, group, and institutional actors. Since the turn of the century, policymaking by successive Nigerian governments has, despite superficial partisan differences, been oriented towards short-term crisis management of macroeconomic stabilization, restoring growth and selective public sector reforms. To diversify Nigeria's economy, this book argues that successive governments must reorient towards a consistent focus on pro-productivity and pro-poor policies, alongside comprehensive civil service and security sector overhaul. These policy priorities, Nigeria's ruling elites are belatedly acknowledging, are crucial to achieving economic transformation; a policy shift that requires a confrontation with the roots of perpetual political crisis, and an attempt to stabilize the balance of power towards equity and inclusion. The eBook editions of this book are available open access under a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 licence on bloomsburycollections.com. Open access was funded by The Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

Author: Ismail Radwan
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 0821381970
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 192

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Nigeria has a bold national vision of becoming one of the world s top 20 economies by 2020. However, despite being the 8th most populous country in the world, it ranks 41st in terms of GDP and 161st in terms of GDP per capita. Nigeria has long depended on oil for its exports and government revenues. This dependence has led to rent seeking and a reluctance to examine potential avenues for economic diversification. The authors of 'Knowledge, Productivity, and Innovation in Nigeria' believe that the goal of becoming a top-twenty economy can only be achieved if Nigeria makes the transition to a new economy rooted in the 21st century that harnesses the power of knowledge and avoids a static oil-based growth strategy. Knowledge has always been central to development, but new technologies have made it globally accessible. Countries such as the Republic of South Korea, India, and the United States that have exploited new technologies and know-how have pushed their innovation and productivity frontiers. Countries that have failed to do so risk remaining mired in poverty. In order to achieve Vision 2020, Nigeria must move beyond the stop-start patterns of oil-based development that have characterized it since independence. It must create a stable and prosperous economy based on a critical mass of knowledge workers. Knowledge, Productivity, and Innovation in Nigeria examines how Nigeria can prepare for this century and where its leaders can focus to achieve their vision, presenting the experiences of other countries from which Nigeria can learn.

Author: Peter Lewis
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 0472069802
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 358

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The story of how oil--and oil money--transformed political life in two major producer-nations

Author: Temitope Oshikoa
Publisher: Praeger
ISBN: 0275934179
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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This book combines descriptive, technical, empirical, policy evaluation, and forecasting methodologies to provide a systematic analysis of the the Nigerian economy--the largest and most dominant economy in sub-Saharan Africa. The author develops and tests an integrated macroeconomic input-output model of the economy's workings, using it to explain Nigeria's recent economic growth and development and to forecast the country's future growth prospects. The model also enables Oshikoya to provide a source of information on estimates of the structural parameters of the Nigerian economy; to evaluate the role of government policy in determining general levels of economic activity; to study the relationships among the major economic variables and the determinants of their magnitudes, composition, and rates of change over time; and to examine the impacts of such factors as fluctuations in the world petroleum market, technological change, and external debt accumulation on economic growth in Nigeria. An ideal supplemental text for courses in development economics, this volume will also be of significant assistance in the design, formulation, and evaluation of macro-policy initiatives, forecasting, and development planning for Nigeria. Following an introductory overview, the author provides a detailed descriptive analysis of the Nigerian economy, focusing particular attention on its basic structure and the policies and events which have contributed to recent growth. He then provides a theoretical model of the Nigerian economy and presents an econometric estimation of the input-output model. A separate chapter demonstrates the model validation techniques used in the study and evaluates the tracking ability of the complete model in a historical context. Finally, the author projects growth patterns for the Nigerian economy from 1984 to 2000 and offers an extended discussion of the impact of external borrowing on the economy's current and future growth prospects. In his conclusion, Oshikoya points to the need to adapt empirical models to the special conditions of developing countries and calls for such policy suggestions as a stabilization fund to minimize the impact of cyclical oil revenue patterns on the economy, a higher priority for investment in agriculture, and a relaxation of external debt constraints.

Author: Tom Forrest
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1000307409
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 240

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Since the end of civil war in 1970, Nigeria has struggled to build a stronger federal center and to reduce conflicts that have arisen from uneven development and from ethnic, regional, class and religious differences. This book provides a comprehensive account of the dynamic interplay between the political and economic forces that have shaped gover