Corporate Bond Yield Spreads and the Term Structure PDF Download

Author: Ronald W. Anderson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bonds
Languages : en
Pages : 58

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Author: Gregory R. Duffee
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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This paper empirically examines the relation between the Treasury term structure and spreads of investment grade corporate bond yields over Treasuries. I find that noncallable bond yield spreads fall when the level of the Treasury term structure rises. The extent of this decline depends on the initial credit quality of the bond; the decline is small for Aaa-rated bonds and large for Baa-rated bonds. The role of the business cycle in generating this pattern is explored, as is the link between yield spreads and default risk. I also argue that yield spreads based on commonly-used bond yield indexes are contaminated in two important ways. The first is that they are quot;refreshedquot; indexes, which hold credit ratings constant over time; the second is that they usually are constructed with both callable and noncallable bonds. The impact of both of these problems is examined.

Author: Jeffery D. Amato
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Corporate bonds
Languages : en
Pages : 72

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We estimate arbitrage-free term structure models of US Treasury yields and spreads on BBB and B rated corporate bonds in a doubly-stochastic intensity-based framework. A novel feature of our analysis is the inclusion of macroeconomic variables -- indicators of real activity, inflation and financial conditions -- as well as latent factors, as drivers of term structure dynamics. Our results point to three key roles played by macro factors in the term structure of spreads: they have a significant impact on the level, and particularly the slope, of the curves; they are largely responsible for variation in the prices of systematic risk; and speculative grade spreads exhibit greater sensitivity to macro shocks than high grade spreads. In addition to estimating risk-neutral default intensities, we provide estimates of physical default intensities using data on Moody's KMV EDFs as a forward--looking proxy for default risk. We find that the real and financial activity indicators, along with filtered estimates of the latent factors from our term structure model, explain a large portion of the variation in EDFs across time. Furthermore, measures of the price of default event risk implied by estimates of physical and risk-neutral intensities indicate that compensation for default event risk is countercyclical, varies widely across the cycle, and is higher on average and more variable for higher-rated bonds.

Author: Astrid Van Landschoot
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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This paper presents a systematic comparison between the determinants of euro and US dollar yield spread dynamics. The results show that US dollar yield spreads are significantly more affected by changes in the level and the slope of the default-free term structure and the stock market return and volatility. Surprisingly, euro yield spreads are strongly affected by the US (and not the euro) level and slope. This confirms the dominance of US interest rates in the corporate bond markets. Interestingly, I find that liquidity risk is higher for US dollar corporate bonds than euro corporate bonds. For both regions, the effect of changes in the bid-ask spread is mainly significant during periods of high liquidity risk. Finally, the results indicate that the credit cycle as measured by the region-specific default probability significantly increases US yield spreads. This is not the case for euro yield spreads.

Author: Frank Fabozzi
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 007171538X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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From The Handbook of Fixed Income Securities--the most authoritative, widely read reference in the global fixed income marketplace--comes this sample chapter. This comprehensive survey of current knowledge features contributions from leading academics and practitioners and is not equaled by any other single sourcebook. Now, the thoroughly revised and updated seventh edition gives you the facts and formulas you need to compete in today's transformed marketplace. It places increased emphasis on applications, electronic trading, and global portfolio management.

Author: Jeremy Leake
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 22

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This paper explores the relationship between credit spreads on sterling corporate bonds and the term structure of UK interest rates. In particular, it examines whether credit spreads are a reliable indicator of corporate bond default risk. Using daily price quotes from 1990 to 1998, the paper finds a small negative relationship between credit spreads on sterling investment-grade corporate bonds and the level and slope of the term structure of UK interest rates. The results are weaker than those found by Longstaff and Schwartz (1995) and Duffee (1996 and 1998) who both examine the relationship between US corporate bond credit spreads and the term structure of US interest rates. The weak relationship found suggests that credit spreads on sterling investment-grade corporate bonds have been driven by factors other than default risk. If so, we should be cautious in interpreting such credit spreads as measures of bond default risk. This result is important to both those in the field of financial stability interested in leading indicators of corporate defaults, and to monetary policy makers interested in the impact of interest rate changes on corporate bond default risk. Similar work should be repeated for sterling sub investment-grade corporate bonds once a sufficiently large data set can be assembled.

Author: Arne Wilkes
Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften
ISBN: 9783631606049
Category : Bond market
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Credit spreads express how markets evaluate the riskiness of corporate bonds compared to risk-free investments. Since credit spreads have been highly volatile especially during the last decade it is important for academics and practitioners alike to understand the dynamic interdependencies between credit spreads and their determinants. Based on a sample of European corporate bonds and different macroeconomic variables the author analyzes the determinants of credit spreads during the period of 1999 to 2009. With a macro-finance term structure model he shows that the European corporate bond market is largely integrated with some remaining segmentation. Furthermore, panel regressions yield that declining liquidity leads to a significant widening of credit spreads especially during the recent financial crisis. Finally, he demonstrates based on a cointegration analysis that a long-term relationship exists between credit spreads and their determinants and that credit spreads were significantly overpriced after the collapse of Lehman Brothers but have almost returned to equilibrium towards the end of 2009.

Author: Zhiping Zhou
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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We estimate a no-arbitrage term structure model of U.S. Treasury yields and corporate bond spreads with both economic factors and latent factors as drivers of term structure dynamics. We consider two sets of economic factors: macro factors consisting of inflation and real activity, and financial market factors consisting of funding liquidity and market volatility. We show that financial market factors have limited effects on the Treasury yield curve but substantial impacts on the credit spread term structure. In particular, negative liquidity shocks widen credit spreads, and this effect is more pronounced for short-term corporate bonds. We also find that out-of-sample forecasts for credit spreads improve when financial market factors are incorporated and when no-arbitrage restrictions are imposed. We also propose a minimum-chi-square method for estimating the term structure models of interest rate and credit spreads, which is more efficient and accurate than the widespread maximum-likelihood estimation.

Author: Fan Yu
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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Theory predicts that the quality of a firm's information disclosure can affect the term structure of its corporate bond yield spreads. Using cross-sectional regression and Nelson-Siegel yield curve estimation, I find that firms with higher AIMR disclosure rankings tend to have lower credit spreads. Moreover, this ``transparency spread'' is especially large among short-term bonds. These findings are consistent with the theory of discretionary disclosure as well as the incomplete accounting information model of Duffie and Lando (2001). The presence of a sizable short-term transparency spread can attenuate some of the empirical problems associated with structural credit risk models.

Author: David Meiselman
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 96

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