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Author: Joachim Grammig Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
We propose a simulated method of moments strategy to estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model (CBM) that accounts for the possibility of severe economic contractions, thereby providing a test of the rare disaster hypothesis and a re-evaluation of the empirical performance of the canonical CBM. Unlike in previous studies, the estimates of the investor preference parameters and the model-implied equity premium, mean risk-free rate, and market Sharpe ratio are economically plausible and precise. Accounting for rare disasters thus helps to restore the nexus between financial markets and the real economy that is implied by the CBM.
Author: Joachim Grammig Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 52
Book Description
We propose a simulated method of moments strategy to estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model (CBM) that accounts for the possibility of severe economic contractions, thereby providing a test of the rare disaster hypothesis and a re-evaluation of the empirical performance of the canonical CBM. Unlike in previous studies, the estimates of the investor preference parameters and the model-implied equity premium, mean risk-free rate, and market Sharpe ratio are economically plausible and precise. Accounting for rare disasters thus helps to restore the nexus between financial markets and the real economy that is implied by the CBM.
Author: Joachim Grammig Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
The rare disaster hypothesis suggests that the extraordinarily high postwar U.S. equity premium resulted because investors ex ante demanded compensation for unlikely but calamitous risks that they happened not to incur. Although convincing in theory, empirical tests of the rare disaster explanation are scarce. We estimate a disaster-including consumption-based asset pricing model (CBM) using a combination of the simulated method of moments and bootstrapping. We consider several methodological alternatives that differ in the moment matches and the way to account for disasters in the simulated consumption growth and return series. Whichever specification is used, the estimated preference parameters are of an economically plausible size, and the estimation precision is much higher than in previous studies that use the canonical CBM. Our results thus provide empirical support for the rare disaster hypothesis, and help reconcile the nexus between real economy and financial markets implied by the consumption-based asset pricing paradigm.
Author: Douglas T. Breeden Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Following Part 1 of this article, which reviews late-1970s to 1990s classic derivations and tests of the consumption capital asset pricing model, here in Part 2 we review more recent developments, some of which are based on utility functions with non-time-separable preferences. Important second-generation consumption-based asset pricing advances are also reviewed, including models with habit formation and long-run risk. These models give large cyclical changes in relative risk aversion and risk premiums as well as lagged impacts of aggregate consumption changes on risk premiums. We review asset pricing with rare disasters and models focused on consumer spending on durables and real estate, as well as the fraction of spending financed by labor income. The second-generation models discussed have more free parameters and fit the empirical data better than did the first-generation consumption-based asset pricing models.
Author: Yang K. Lu Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
We incorporate joint learning about state and parameter into a consumption-based asset pricing model with rare disasters. Agents are uncertain whether a negative shock signals the onset of a disaster or how much long-term damage a disaster will cause and they update their beliefs over time. The interaction of state and parameter uncertainty increases the total amount of uncertainty and slows learning. Once the two types of uncertainty are both priced in asset prices, their joint effect enables our model to account for the level and volatility of U.S. equity returns without relying on exogenous variation in disaster risk or any realization of disaster shock in the data sample.
Author: Jantje Sönksen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
We propose a simulation-based strategy to estimate and empirically assess a class of asset pricing models that account for rare but severe consumption contractions that can extend over multiple periods. Our approach expands the scope of prevalent calibration studies and tackles the inherent sample selection problem associated with measuring the effect of rare disaster risk on asset prices. An analysis based on postwar U.S. and historical multi-country panel data yields estimates of investor preference parameters that are economically plausible and robust with respect to alternative specifications. The estimated model withstands tests of validity; the model-implied key financial indicators and timing premium all have reasonable magnitudes. These findings suggest that the rare disaster hypothesis can help restore the nexus between the real economy and financial markets when allowing for multi-period disaster events.Our methodological contribution is a new econometric framework for empirical asset pricing with rare disaster risk.
Author: Robert J. Barro Publisher: ISBN: Category : Assets (Accounting) Languages : en Pages : 42
Book Description
A representative-consumer model with Epstein-Zin-Weil preferences and i.i.d. shocks, including rare disasters, accords with key asset-pricing observations. If the coefficient of relative risk aversion equals 3-4, the model accords with observed equity premia and risk-free real interest rates. If the intertemporal elasticity of substitution is greater than one, an increase in uncertainty lowers the price-dividend ratio for equity, whereas a rise in the expected growth rate raises this ratio. In a model with endogenous saving, more uncertainty lowers the saving ratio (because substitution effects dominate). The match with major features of asset pricing suggests that the model is a reasonable candidate for assessing the welfare cost of aggregate consumption uncertainty. In the baseline simulation, the welfare cost of disaster risk is large -- society would be willing to lower real GDP by as much as 20% each year to eliminate the small chance of major economic collapses. The welfare cost from usual economic fluctuations is much smaller, though still important, corresponding to lowering GDP by around 1.5% each year.
Author: Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board Publisher: CreateSpace ISBN: 9781503231191 Category : Languages : en Pages : 34
Book Description
In this study, we examine how learning about disaster risk affects asset pricing in an endowment economy. We extend the literature on rare disasters by allowing for two sources of uncertainty: (1) the lack of historical data results in unknown parameters for the disaster process, and (2) the disaster takes time to unfold and is not directly observable. The model generates time variation in the risk premium through Bayesian updating of agents' beliefs regarding the likelihood and severity of disaster realization. The model accounts for the level and volatility of U.S. equity returns and generates predictability in returns.
Author: Ian Martin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Assets (Accounting) Languages : en Pages : 39
Book Description
I extend the Epstein-Zin-lognormal consumption-based asset-pricing model to allow for general i.i.d. consumption growth. Information about the higher moments--equivalently, cumulants--of consumption growth is encoded in the cumulant-generating function. I apply the framework to economies with rare disasters, and argue that the importance of such disasters is a double-edged sword: parameters that govern the frequency and sizes of rare disasters are critically important for asset pricing, but extremely hard to calibrate. I show how to sidestep this issue by using observable asset prices to make inferences that are robust to the details of the underlying consumption process.
Author: Jantje Sönksen Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 49
Book Description
According to the rare disaster hypothesis, the extraordinary mean excess returns on U.S. equity portfolios during the postwar period resulted because investors ex ante demanded a compensation for possibly disastrous but very unlikely risks that they ex post did not incur. Empirical tests of the rare disaster hypothesis are scarce, and the frequently used assumption that disasters shrink to one-period events is under suspicion of being the driving force behind the hypothesis' success in calibrations. This study proposes a simulation-based approach to estimate an asset pricing model that accounts for multi-period disasters, partial government defaults, and recursive investor preferences. The empirical results corroborate that the rare disaster hypothesis helps to restore the nexus between the real economy and financial markets that is implied by the consumption-based asset pricing paradigm. The estimates of the subjective discount factor, relative risk aversion, and the intertemporal elasticity of substitution are economically reasonable, rather precise, and robust with respect to alternative model specifications. Moreover, the model-implied equity premium, mean T-bill return, and market Sharpe ratio are plausible and consistent with empirical data.
Author: Joachim Grammig
Author: Joachim Grammig
Author: Joachim Grammig
Author: Douglas T. Breeden
Author: Yang K. Lu
Author: Jantje Sönksen
Author: Robert J. Barro
Author: Federal Reserve Federal Reserve Board
Author: Ian Martin
Author: Jantje Sönksen
Author: Yang K. Lu