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Author: Frederic Claiborne Shorter Publisher: ISBN: Category : Electronic data processing Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
Monograph presenting a calculational methodology for computerized preparation of population projections - outlines procedures for the preparation and use of model distributions that reflect changes in demographic factors such as fertility, mortality and migration, etc., and includes a sample application of the system to data for Turkey. Statistical tables.
Author: Frederic Claiborne Shorter Publisher: ISBN: Category : Electronic data processing Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
Monograph presenting a calculational methodology for computerized preparation of population projections - outlines procedures for the preparation and use of model distributions that reflect changes in demographic factors such as fertility, mortality and migration, etc., and includes a sample application of the system to data for Turkey. Statistical tables.
Author: Frederic C. Shorter Publisher: Createspace Independent Pub ISBN: 9781480049574 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 146
Book Description
"Computational Methods for Population Projections" is a user manual for the FIVFIV population projection software package. This manual was developed to help national governments and local authorities, especially in the developing world, make the projections they need to carry out their planning responsibilities. A second group of users is found in academic and training institutions. For teaching about the growth and structure of human populations, projections can demonstrate specific theorems. Note: The FIVFIV software is not included as part of this manual. While the population projection methodology described in this manual may continue to be of interest, the FIVFIV software, which is referenced throughout this book, is quite obsolete in terms of usability and is no longer supported or distributed. It remains our goal to produce a modern version of the software; however, we cannot currently determine when or if such an updated version may become available.
Author: Stanley K. Smith Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 9400775512 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 417
Book Description
This book focuses on the methodology and analysis of state and local population projections. It describes the most commonly used data sources and application techniques for four types of projection methods: cohort-component, trend extrapolation, structural models, and microsimulation. It covers the components of population growth, sources of data, the formation of assumptions, the development of evaluation criteria, and the determinants of forecast accuracy. It considers the strengths and weaknesses of various projection methods and pays special attention to the unique problems that characterize small-area projections. The authors provide practical guidance to demographers, planners, market analysts, and others called on to construct state and local population projections. They use many examples and illustrations and present suggestions for dealing with special populations, unique circumstances, and inadequate or unreliable data. They describe techniques for controlling one set of projections to another, for interpolating between time points, for sub-dividing age groups, and for constructing projections of population-related variables (e.g., school enrollment, households). They discuss the role of judgment and the importance of the political context in which projections are made. They emphasize the “utility” of projections, or their usefulness for decision making in a world of competing demands and limited resources. This comprehensive book will provide readers with an understanding not only of the mechanics of the most commonly used population projection methods, but also of the many complex issues affecting their construction, interpretation, evaluation, and use.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309069904 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 369
Book Description
Is rapid world population growth actually coming to an end? As population growth and its consequences have become front-page issues, projections of slowing growth from such institutions as the United Nations and the World Bank have been called into question. Beyond Six Billion asks what such projections really say, why they say it, whether they can be trusted, and whether they can be improved. The book includes analysis of how well past U.N. and World Bank projections have panned out, what errors have occurred, and why they have happened. Focusing on fertility as one key to accurate projections, the committee examines the transition from high, constant fertility to low fertility levels and discusses whether developing countries will eventually attain the very low levels of births now observed in the industrialized world. Other keys to accurate projections, predictions of lengthening life span and of the impact of international migration on specific countries, are also explored in detail. How good are our methods of population forecasting? How can we cope with the inevitable uncertainty? What population trends can we anticipate? Beyond Six Billion illuminates not only the forces that shape population growth but also the accuracy of the methods we use to quantify these forces and the uncertainty surrounding projections. The Committee on Population was established by the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1983 to bring the knowledge and methods of the population sciences to bear on major issues of science and public policy. The committee's work includes both basic studies of fertility, health and mortality, and migration; and applied studies aimed at improving programs for the public health and welfare in the United States and in developing countries. The committee also fosters communication among researchers in different disciplines and countries and policy makers in government, international agencies, and private organizations. The work of the committee is made possible by funding from several government agencies and private foundations.
Author: Calvin Goldscheider Publisher: Routledge ISBN: 0429715552 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 262
Book Description
Focuses on fertility and family transitions in selected Third World countries, exploring critical aspects of the relationship between population and development. The essays examine population processes as they unfold and develop over time, highlighting the need to go beyond economic explanations and identifying the priorities among social structura
Author: John F. May Publisher: Springer Nature ISBN: 3031020405 Category : Social Science Languages : en Pages : 863
Book Description
This Handbook offers an array of internationally recognized experts’ essays that provide a current and comprehensive examination of all dimensions of international population policies. The book examines the theoretical foundations, the historical and empirical evidence for policy formation, the policy levers and modelling, as well as the new policy challenges. The section Theoretical Foundations reviews population issues today, population theories, the population policies’ framework as well as the linkages between population, development, health, food systems, and the environment. The next section Empirical Evidence discusses international approaches to design and implement population policies on a regional level. The section Policy Levers and Modelling reviews the tools and the policy levers that are available to design, implement, monitor, and measure the impact of population policies. Finally, the section New Policy Challenges examines the recurrent and emerging issues in population policies. This section also discusses prospects for demographic sustainability as well as future considerations for population policies. As such this Handbook provides an important and structured examination of contemporary population policies, their evolution, and their prospects.
Author: John R. Hamburg Publisher: Transportation Research Board National Research ISBN: Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 140
Book Description
Guidelines to and errors in travel projections; disaggregating national or state level projections to local geographic level -- multi-county regions, SMSAs, transportation study units.
Author: Frederic Claiborne Shorter
Author: Frederic Claiborne Shorter
Author: Frederic C. Shorter
Author: Frederic C. Shorter
Author: 
Author: 
Author: Stanley K. Smith
Author: National Research Council
Author: Calvin Goldscheider
Author: John F. May
Author: John R. Hamburg