Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles PDF Download

Author: Marco Aiolfi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Author: Luis Catão
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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This paper constructs new business cycle indices for Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico based on common dynamic factors extracted from a comprehensive set of sectoral output, external data, and fiscal and financial variables spanning over a century. The constructed indices are used to derive a business cycle chronology for these countries and characterize a set of new stylized facts. In particular, we show that all four countries have historically displayed a striking combination of high business cycle and persistence relative to benchmark countries, and that such volatility has been time-varying, with important differences across policy regimes. We also uncover a sizeable common factor across the four economies which has greatly limited scope for regional risk sharing.

Author: Marco Aiolfi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 23

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Author: Marco Aiolfi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Electronic books
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Carlos A. Vegh
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN: 1464814139
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 70

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After mediocre growth in 2018 of 0.7 percent. LAC is expected to perform only marginally better in 2019 (growth of 0.9 percent) followed by a much more solid growth of 2.1 percent in 2020. LAC will face both internal and external challenges during 2019. On the domestic front. the recession in Argentina; a slower than expected recovery in Brazil from the 2014-2015 recession, anemic growth in Mexico. and the continued deterioration of Venezuela. present the biggest challenges. On the external front. the sharp drop in net capital inflows to the region since early 2018 and the monetary policy normalization in the United States stand among the greatest perils. Furthermore, the recent increase in poverty in Brazil because of the recession points to the large effects that the business cycle may have on poverty. The core of this report argues that social indicators that are very sensitive to the business cycle may yield a highly misleading picture of permanent social gains in the region.

Author: Mr.Alexander W. Hoffmaister
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451927312
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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This paper compares business cycles in Asia and in Latin America using structural vector autoregression analysis with panel data. The evidence for countries in these regions suggests that (i) the main source of output fluctuations is supply shocks, even in the short run; (ii) the real exchange rate is driven mostly by fiscal shocks; and (iii) terms of trade shocks are important for trade balance fluctuations but not for output or real exchange rate fluctuations. However, in Latin America, as opposed to Asia, output is affected more by external and domestic demand shocks.

Author: Patricio Aroca
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783319988658
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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This book analyzes regional business cycles in Latin America. The authors explain the nature of regional business cycles and discuss different sources of regional economic fluctuations such as technology changes, natural disasters, or supply and demand shocks. Presenting case studies on Brazil, Chile and Mexico, the authors examine the co-movement of regional business cycles as well as the differing responses of regional economies to external shocks due to regional characteristics such as availability of natural resources, and the degree of integration into national and global markets. This short book appealto students and scholars as well as policy makers interested in regional growth processes in developing countries.

Author: Pablo Mejía Reyes
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Business cycles
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Author: Melisso Boschi
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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This paper quantifies the relative contribution of domestic, regional and international factors to the fluctuation of domestic output in six key Latin American (LA) countries: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Peru. Using quarterly data over the period 1980:1-2003:4, a multi-variate, multicountry time series model was estimated to study the economic interdependence among LA countries and, in addition, between each of them and the three world largest industrial economies: the US, the Euro Area and Japan. Falsifying a common suspicion, it is shown that the proportion of LA countries' domestic output variability explained by industrial countries' factors is modest. By contrast, domestic and regional factors account for the main share of output variability at all simulation horizons. The implications for the choice of the exchange rate regime are also discussed.

Author: Mr.Angel J. Ubide
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451842767
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 39

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This paper analyzes common economic patterns across countries and economic sectors in Latin America, East Asia and Europe for the period 1970–94 by means of an error-components model that decomposes real value added growth in each country into common international effects, sector-specific effects and country-specific effects. We find significant comovements in the European and East Asian samples. In the Latin American sample, however, we find country-specific components to be more important than common patterns. These results are robust to different sub-sample time spans and different sub-sample country groups.