Common Factors in International Bond Returns PDF Download

Author: Joost Johannes Arnold Gerardus Driessen
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages :

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Author: Franck Moraux
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 41

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The movements of domestic term structures of interest rates are commonly assumed to be driven by a small number of factors, usually obtained from a principal component analysis. In order to model simultaneously the dynamics of several domestic term structures, principal component analysis is applied either to the pooled data or separately to each domestic term structure. Although researchers often notice that the shape of the factor loadings is the same for all countries but that the explained variance per factor is quite different across countries, they stop formulating constraints on parameters. This paper applies Common Principal Component analysis to deal with this issue.

Author: Ronen Israel
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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We find that four well-known characteristics (carry, defensive, momentum and value) explain a significant portion of the cross-sectional variation in corporate bond excess returns. These characteristics have positive risk-adjusted expected returns and are not subsumed by traditional market premia or respective equity anomalies. The returns are economically significant, not explained by macroeconomic exposures, and there is some evidence that mispricing plays a role, especially for momentum.

Author: Heinz Zimmermann
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 047144555X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 340

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Reveals new methodologies for asset pricing within a global asset allocation framework. Contains cutting-edge empirical research on global markets and sectors of the global economy. Introduces the Black-Litterman model and how it can be used to improve global asset allocation decisions.

Author: Mr.Itai Agur
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484339223
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 56

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The paper investigates the international integration of EM sovereign dollar-denominated and local-currency bond markets. Factor analysis is used to examine movements in sovereign bond yields and common sources of yield variation. The results suggest that EM dollar-denominated sovereign debt markets are highly integrated; a single common factor that is highly correlated with US and EU interest rates explains, on average, about 80 percent of the total variability in yields. EM sovereign local currency bond markets are not as internationally integrated, and three common factors explain about 74 percent of the total variability. But a factor highly correlated with US and EU interest rates still explains 63 percent of the yield variation accounted for by common factors. That said, there is some diversity among EM countries in the importance of common factors in affecting sovereign debt yields.

Author: Pietro Veronesi
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118709195
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 630

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A comprehensive guide to the current theories and methodologies intrinsic to fixed-income securities Written by well-known experts from a cross section of academia and finance, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities features a compilation of the most up-to-date fixed-income securities techniques and methods. The book presents crucial topics of fixed income in an accessible and logical format. Emphasizing empirical research and real-life applications, the book explores a wide range of topics from the risk and return of fixed-income investments, to the impact of monetary policy on interest rates, to the post-crisis new regulatory landscape. Well organized to cover critical topics in fixed income, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is divided into eight main sections that feature: • An introduction to fixed-income markets such as Treasury bonds, inflation-protected securities, money markets, mortgage-backed securities, and the basic analytics that characterize them • Monetary policy and fixed-income markets, which highlight the recent empirical evidence on the central banks’ influence on interest rates, including the recent quantitative easing experiments • Interest rate risk measurement and management with a special focus on the most recent techniques and methodologies for asset-liability management under regulatory constraints • The predictability of bond returns with a critical discussion of the empirical evidence on time-varying bond risk premia, both in the United States and abroad, and their sources, such as liquidity and volatility • Advanced topics, with a focus on the most recent research on term structure models and econometrics, the dynamics of bond illiquidity, and the puzzling dynamics of stocks and bonds • Derivatives markets, including a detailed discussion of the new regulatory landscape after the financial crisis and an introduction to no-arbitrage derivatives pricing • Further topics on derivatives pricing that cover modern valuation techniques, such as Monte Carlo simulations, volatility surfaces, and no-arbitrage pricing with regulatory constraints • Corporate and sovereign bonds with a detailed discussion of the tools required to analyze default risk, the relevant empirical evidence, and a special focus on the recent sovereign crises A complete reference for practitioners in the fields of finance, business, applied statistics, econometrics, and engineering, Handbook of Fixed-Income Securities is also a useful supplementary textbook for graduate and MBA-level courses on fixed-income securities, risk management, volatility, bonds, derivatives, and financial markets. Pietro Veronesi, PhD, is Roman Family Professor of Finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, where he teaches Masters and PhD-level courses in fixed income, risk management, and asset pricing. Published in leading academic journals and honored by numerous awards, his research focuses on stock and bond valuation, return predictability, bubbles and crashes, and the relation between asset prices and government policies.

Author: Mr.A. Javier Hamann
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451961774
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 28

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This paper examines the comovement in emerging market bond returns and disentangles the influence of external and domestic factors. The conceptual framework, set in the context of asset allocation, allows us to describe the channels through which shocks originating in a particular emerging or mature market are transmitted across countries and markets. We show that using a simple measure of cross-country correlations together with the commonly used average correlation coefficient can be more informative during episodes of heightened market instability. Data for the period 1997-2008 are analyzed for evidence of true contagion and common external shocks.

Author: John H. Cochrane
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 1400829135
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 560

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Book Description
Winner of the prestigious Paul A. Samuelson Award for scholarly writing on lifelong financial security, John Cochrane's Asset Pricing now appears in a revised edition that unifies and brings the science of asset pricing up to date for advanced students and professionals. Cochrane traces the pricing of all assets back to a single idea--price equals expected discounted payoff--that captures the macro-economic risks underlying each security's value. By using a single, stochastic discount factor rather than a separate set of tricks for each asset class, Cochrane builds a unified account of modern asset pricing. He presents applications to stocks, bonds, and options. Each model--consumption based, CAPM, multifactor, term structure, and option pricing--is derived as a different specification of the discounted factor. The discount factor framework also leads to a state-space geometry for mean-variance frontiers and asset pricing models. It puts payoffs in different states of nature on the axes rather than mean and variance of return, leading to a new and conveniently linear geometrical representation of asset pricing ideas. Cochrane approaches empirical work with the Generalized Method of Moments, which studies sample average prices and discounted payoffs to determine whether price does equal expected discounted payoff. He translates between the discount factor, GMM, and state-space language and the beta, mean-variance, and regression language common in empirical work and earlier theory. The book also includes a review of recent empirical work on return predictability, value and other puzzles in the cross section, and equity premium puzzles and their resolution. Written to be a summary for academics and professionals as well as a textbook, this book condenses and advances recent scholarship in financial economics.

Author: Antonio Diez de los Rios
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1484320735
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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We compare the effectiveness of Federal Reserve's asset purchase programs in lowering longterm yields with that of similar programs implemented by the Bank of England, the Swedish Riksbank, and the Swiss National Bank's reserve expansion program. We decompose government bond yields into (i) an expectations component, (ii) a global, and (iii) a country specific term premium to analyze two-day changes in 10-year yields around announcement dates. We find that, in contrast to the Federal Reserve's asset purchases, the programs implemented in these smaller economies have not been able to affect the global term premium and, furthermore, they have had limited, but significant, effect in lowering long-term yields.

Author: Sydney C. Ludvigson
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Bonds
Languages : en
Pages : 22

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Empirical evidence suggests that excess bond returns are forecastable by financial indicators such as forward spreads and yield spreads, a violation of the expectations hypothesis based on constant risk premia. But existing evidence does not tie the forecastable variation in excess bond returns to underlying macroeconomic fundamentals, as would be expected if the forecastability were attributable to time variation in risk premia. We use the methodology of dynamic factor analysis for large datasets to investigate possible empirical linkages between forecastable variation in excess bond returns and macroeconomic fundamentals. We find that several common factors estimated from a large dataset on U.S. economic activity have important forecasting power for future excess returns on U.S. government bonds. Following Cochrane and Piazzesi (2005), we also construct single predictor state variables by forming linear combinations of either five or six estimated common factors. The single state variables forecast excess bond returns at maturities from two to five years, and do so virtually as well as an unrestricted regression model that includes each common factor as a separate predictor variable. The linear combinations we form are driven by both "real" and "inflation" macro factors, in addition to financial factors, and contain important information about one year ahead excess bond returns that is not captured by forward spreads, yield spreads, or the principal components of the yield covariance matrix.