Commodity Price Volatility in the Biofuel Era: An Examination of the Linkage Between Energy and Agricultural Markets PDF Download

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Languages : en
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Author: Thomas W. Hertel
Publisher:
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Languages : en
Pages : 51

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Agricultural and energy commodity prices have traditionally exhibited relatively low correlation. However, recent increases in biofuel production have altered the agriculture-energy relationship in a fundamental way. This increase has drawn on corn previously sold to other uses, as well as acreage devoted to other crops. The US RFS envisions a further boost of ethanol production to 15 billion gallons per year, which might be expected to further strengthen the linkages. We estimate that, in the presence of a binding RFS, the inherent volatility in the US coarse grains market will rise by about one-quarter. And the volatility of the US coarse grains price to supply side shocks in that market will rise by nearly one-half. Under a high oil price scenario, rather than the RFS binding, the binding constraint is likely to be the blend wall. With a binding blend wall, we see similar, although somewhat smaller, increases in market volatility. If both the RFS and the blend wall are on the verge of being binding, then our results suggest that US coarse grains price volatility in response to corn supply shocks would be 57% higher than in the non-binding case, and world price volatility would be boosted by 25%.

Author: Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022612908X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 394

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There has been an increase in food price instability in recent years, with varied consequences for farmers, market participants, and consumers. Before policy makers can design schemes to reduce food price uncertainty or ameliorate its effects, they must first understand the factors that have contributed to recent price instability. Does it arise primarily from technological or weather-related supply shocks, or from changes in demand like those induced by the growing use of biofuel? Does financial speculation affect food price volatility? The researchers who contributed to The Economics of Food Price Volatility address these and other questions. They examine the forces driving both recent and historical patterns in food price volatility, as well as the effects of various public policies in affecting this volatility. The chapters include studies of the links between food and energy markets, the impact of biofuel policy on the level and variability of food prices, and the effects of weather-related disruptions in supply. The findings shed light on the way price volatility affects the welfare of farmers, traders, and consumers.

Author: Isabelle Piot-Lepetit
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441976345
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 238

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This book examines the issue of price volatility in agricultural commodities markets and how this phenomenon has evolved in recent years. The factors underlying the price spike of 2007-08 appear to be global and macroeconomic in nature, including the rapid growth in demand by developing countries, the international financial crisis, and exchange rate movements. Some of these factors are new, appearing as influences on price volatility only in the last decade. Although volatility has always been a feature of agricultural commodity markets, the evidence suggests that volatility has increased in certain commodity markets. A growing problem is that agricultural price shocks and volatility disrupt agricultural markets, economic incentives and incomes. With increased globalization and integration of financial and energy markets with agricultural commodity markets, the relationships between markets are expanding and becoming more complex. When a crisis such as a regional drought, food safety scare or a financial crisis hits a particular market, policy-makers often do not know the extent to which it will impact on other markets and affect producer, consumer and trader decisions. Including contributions from experts at the World Bank, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the USDA, and the European Commission, the research developed throughout the chapters of this book is based on current methodologies that can be used to analyze price volatility and provide directions for understanding this volatility and the development of new agricultural policies. The book highlights the challenges facing policy makers in dealing with the changing nature of agricultural commodities markets, and offers recommendations for anticipating price movements and managing their consequences. It will be a practical guide for both present and future policy-makers in deciding on potential price-stabilizing interventions, and will also serve as a useful resource for researchers and students in agricultural economics.

Author: Harry de Gorter
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137414855
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 320

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The global food crises of 2008 and 2010 and the increased price volatility revolve around biofuels policies and their interaction with each other, farm policies and between countries. While a certain degree of research has been conducted on biofuel efficacy and logistics, there is currently no book on the market devoted to the economics of biofuel policies. The Economics of Biofuel Policies focuses on the role of biofuel policies in creating turmoil in the world grains and oilseed markets since 2006. This new volume is the first to put together theory and empirical evidence of how biofuel policies created a link between crop (food grains and oilseeds) and biofuel (ethanol and biodiesel) prices. This combined with biofuel policies role in affecting the link between biofuels and energy (gasoline, diesel and crude oil) prices will form the basis to show how alternative US, EU, and Brazilian biofuel policies have immense impacts on the level and volatility of food grain and oilseed prices.

Author: Joshua S. Graff Zivin
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 0226988031
Category : Art
Languages : en
Pages : 310

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Using economic models and empirical analysis, this volume examines a wide range of agricultural and biofuel policy issues and their effects on American agricultural and related agrarian insurance markets. Beginning with a look at the distribution of funds by insurance programs—created to support farmers but often benefiting crop processors instead—the book then examines the demand for biofuel and the effects of biofuel policies on agricultural price uncertainty. Also discussed are genetically engineered crops, which are assuming an increasingly important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and the global food supply. Other contributions discuss the major effects of genetic engineering on worldwide food markets. By addressing some of the most challenging topics at the intersection of agriculture and biotechnology, this volume informs crucial debates.

Author: Katharina Averdunk
Publisher: GRIN Verlag
ISBN: 3640991419
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 245

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Doctoral Thesis / Dissertation from the year 2010 in the subject Politics - International Politics - Topic: Globalization, Political Economics, grade: 1,3, Carl von Ossietzky University of Oldenburg (Institut für Ökologische Ökonomie), language: English, abstract: Food prices - particularly prices of agricultural commodities used as a feedstock for biofuel production - have reached record highs in 2008. Within a period of slightly more than two years prices for staple food such as corn, soy, wheat, and vegetable oils have more than doubled. This price acceleration occurred at a time of surging crude oil prices and a rapid expansion of biofuel production, which relied nearly exclusively on feedstock from food crops. Consequently, the market development has triggered a controversial debate on the question whether the increase of agricultural prices in line with crude oil prices is a mere coincidence, due to stock market speculation, or result of a lasting integration of the agricultural and the energy sector. In the light of these uncertainties on an issue that could have a strong impact on global producers and consumers of food - particularly those in developing countries - the objective of this study is to analyse under which conditions agricultural commodity and crude oil markets could be linked in the future and in how far an integration of markets would affect developing countries. The dissertation is divided into three parts: Part I analyses under which conditions prices in different commodities markets in general follow the same trend. Part II investigates whether a similar co-movement of prices is technically possible in food and crude oil markets, while Part III focuses on potential effects of such a co-movement of prices on developing countries.

Author: Jean-Paul Chavas
Publisher: University of Chicago Press
ISBN: 022612892X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 394

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"The conference was organized by the three editors of this book and took place on August 15-16, 2012 in Seattle."--Preface.

Author: Claire Luensmann
Publisher:
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Languages : en
Pages :

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In recent years, the agricultural markets have been subject to increased prices and unusual levels of elevated volatility. One likely driver of this is the mandated ethanol expansion in the Energy Policy Act of 2005. Previous research has identified relationships in market prices and variability between the energy and grain markets, but little has been done to evaluate volatility spillover across a broader spectrum of agricultural commodities. Additionally, few studies have assessed causal linkages across market implied volatilities. This research examines implied volatility spillover in futures markets across major agricultural commodities and energies. The analysis also determines the time path and magnitude of volatility translation across the markets and compares the causal relationships between pre-ethanol boom and post-ethanol boom time periods. Granger causality tests are conducted using multivariate and bivariate vector autoregressive modeling techniques, and impulse response functions are employed to obtain time paths of the reactions. Overall, results indicate that strong implied volatility spillover relationships exist between the grain markets and between the live cattle and feeder cattle markets. The analysis also finds that the agricultural markets have evolved from lean hogs being the primary volatility leader in the pre-ethanol boom era to corn being the primary volatility leader in the post-ethanol boom era. Despite a high correlation between crude oil and corn volatilities in the post-ethanol boom time period, the causal linkage between the two commodities' volatilities may not be as definite as other literature suggests.

Author: Gail L. Cramer
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 1317225767
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 806

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This Handbook offers an up-to-date collection of research on agricultural economics. Drawing together scholarship from experts at the top of their profession and from around the world, this collection provides new insights into the area of agricultural economics. The Routledge Handbook of Agricultural Economics explores a broad variety of topics including welfare economics, econometrics, agribusiness, and consumer economics. This wide range reflects the way in which agricultural economics encompasses a large sector of any economy, and the chapters present both an introduction to the subjects as well as the methodology, statistical background, and operations research techniques needed to solve practical economic problems. In addition, food economics is given a special focus in the Handbook due to the recent emphasis on health and feeding the world population a quality diet. Furthermore, through examining these diverse topics, the authors seek to provide some indication of the direction of research in these areas and where future research endeavors may be productive. Acting as a comprehensive, up-to-date, and definitive work of reference, this Handbook will be of use to researchers, faculty, and graduate students looking to deepen their understanding of agricultural economics, agribusiness, and applied economics, and the interrelationship of those areas.