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Author: Victor Lapshin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
Estimates of the term structure of interest rates depend heavily on the quality of the market data from which it is constructed. Estimated rates can be incorrect because of observation errors and omissions in the data. The usual way to deal with the heteroscedasticity of observation errors is by introducing weights in the fitting procedure. There is currently no consensus in the literature about the choice of such weights. We introduce a non-parametric bootstrap-based method of introducing observation errors drawn from the empirical distribution into the model data, which allows us to perform a comparison test of different weighting schemes without implicitly favoring one of the contesting models - a common design flaw in comparison studies. We use government bonds from several countries with examples of both liquid and illiquid bond markets. We show that realistic observation errors can greatly distort the estimated yield curve. Moreover, we show that using different weights or other modifications to account for observation errors in bond price data does not always improve the term structure estimates, and often worsens the situation. Based on our comparison, we advise to either use equal weights or weights proportional to the inverse duration in practical applications.
Author: Victor Lapshin Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 45
Book Description
Estimates of the term structure of interest rates depend heavily on the quality of the market data from which it is constructed. Estimated rates can be incorrect because of observation errors and omissions in the data. The usual way to deal with the heteroscedasticity of observation errors is by introducing weights in the fitting procedure. There is currently no consensus in the literature about the choice of such weights. We introduce a non-parametric bootstrap-based method of introducing observation errors drawn from the empirical distribution into the model data, which allows us to perform a comparison test of different weighting schemes without implicitly favoring one of the contesting models - a common design flaw in comparison studies. We use government bonds from several countries with examples of both liquid and illiquid bond markets. We show that realistic observation errors can greatly distort the estimated yield curve. Moreover, we show that using different weights or other modifications to account for observation errors in bond price data does not always improve the term structure estimates, and often worsens the situation. Based on our comparison, we advise to either use equal weights or weights proportional to the inverse duration in practical applications.
Author: Emma Berenguer Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 27
Book Description
Since the seminal paper of Vasicek and Fong (1982), the term structures of interest rates have been fitted assuming that yields are cross-sectionally homoskedastic. We show that this assumption does not hold when there are differences in liquidity, even for bonds of the same issuer. Lower turnover implies higher volatility. In addition, a minimum tick size for bond price negotiation will produce higher volatility for bonds approaching their maturity dates. To show these effects, we use data for Spanish sovereign bonds from 1988 to 2010, covering more than 700 bonds and 5000 trading days. We estimate the out-of-sample error for each bond and day. The variance of these errors is found to be negatively correlated with each bond's turnover and duration, while the mean of the errors is found to be directly correlated with the estimated variance. As a result, we propose a modified Svensson (1994) yield curve model to fit the term structure, adding a liquidity term and estimating parameters by weighted least-squared errors to take into account the liquidity-induced heteroskedasticity.
Author: Anja Hubig Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3658009187 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 228
Book Description
Against the background of the financial-cum-sovereign debt crisis, government debt managers are currently faced by a challenging environment. One key element in that respect is the analysis and forecast of interest rates, which is important for achieving the strategic objective of low borrowing costs. Anja Hubig develops a new mathematical method to estimate the term structure of interest rates, that is adopted to describe the term structure dynamics within a stochastic setting. The introduced model is capable to capture the complex behavior of the entire yield curve with a reduced set of parameters. It essentially ensures a comprehensive analysis of the costs and risks associated with individual funding strategies, and thus effectively supports the selection of a long-term optimal debt portfolio composition.
Author: Iva Petrova Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455252859 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 28
Book Description
This paper analyses the determimants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads by examining the short and long-run effects of fundamental (macroeconomic) and temporary (financial market) factors on these spreads. During the current global financial and economic crisis, sovereign bond spreads widened dramatically for both developed and emerging market economies. This deterioration has widely been attributed to rapidly growing public debts and balance sheet risks. Our results indicate that in the long run, fundamentals are significant determinants of emerging market sovereign bond spreads, while in the short run, financial volatility is a more important determinant of sperads than fundamentals indicators.
Author: Nicola Gennaioli Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498391990 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 53
Book Description
We analyze holdings of public bonds by over 20,000 banks in 191 countries, and the role of these bonds in 20 sovereign defaults over 1998-2012. Banks hold many public bonds (on average 9% of their assets), particularly in less financially-developed countries. During sovereign defaults, banks increase their exposure to public bonds, especially large banks and when expected bond returns are high. At the bank level, bondholdings correlate negatively with subsequent lending during sovereign defaults. This correlation is mostly due to bonds acquired in pre-default years. These findings shed light on alternative theories of the sovereign default-banking crisis nexus.
Author: Damir Filipovic Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 3540680152 Category : Mathematics Languages : en Pages : 259
Book Description
Changing interest rates constitute one of the major risk sources for banks, insurance companies, and other financial institutions. Modeling the term-structure movements of interest rates is a challenging task. This volume gives an introduction to the mathematics of term-structure models in continuous time. It includes practical aspects for fixed-income markets such as day-count conventions, duration of coupon-paying bonds and yield curve construction; arbitrage theory; short-rate models; the Heath-Jarrow-Morton methodology; consistent term-structure parametrizations; affine diffusion processes and option pricing with Fourier transform; LIBOR market models; and credit risk. The focus is on a mathematically straightforward but rigorous development of the theory. Students, researchers and practitioners will find this volume very useful. Each chapter ends with a set of exercises, that provides source for homework and exam questions. Readers are expected to be familiar with elementary Itô calculus, basic probability theory, and real and complex analysis.
Author: Victor Lapshin
Author: Victor Lapshin
Author: Emma Berenguer
Author: Anja Hubig
Author: 
Author: Iva Petrova
Author: Nicola Gennaioli
Author: David Meiselman
Author: Damir Filipovic
Author: Mark Deacon
Author: Kjell G. Nyborg