Changing Global Linkages: A New Cold War? PDF Download

Author: Ms. Gita Gopinath
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 25

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Book Description
Global linkages are changing amidst elevated geopolitical tensions and a surge in policies directed at increasing supply chain resilience and national security. Using granular bilateral data, this paper provides new evidence of trade and investment fragmentation along geopolitical lines since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and compares it to the historical experience of the early years of the Cold War. Gravity model estimates point to significant declines in trade and FDI flows between countries in geopolitically distant blocs since the onset of the war in Ukraine, relative to flows between countries in the same bloc (roughly 12% and 20%, respectively). While the extent of fragmentation is still relatively small and we do not know how longlasting it will be, the decoupling between the rival geopolitical blocs during the Cold War suggests it could worsen considerably should geopolitical tensions persist and trade restrictive policies intensify. Different from the early years of the Cold War, a set of nonaligned ‘connector’ countries are rapidly gaining importance and serving as a bridge between blocs. The emergence of connectors has likely brought resilience to global trade and activity, but does not necessarily increase diversification, strengthen supply chains, or lessen strategic dependence.

Author: Peter Hain
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Globalization
Languages : en
Pages : 88

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Book Description
This pamphlet argues that new international political challenges require the evolution of a radically new approach based upon global linkages, recognizing natural limits, and embracing global responsibility; a foreign policy for a world in which there is no longer any such place as abroad.

Author:
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 64

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Book Description

Author: National Intelligence Council
Publisher: Cosimo Reports
ISBN: 9781646794973
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 158

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Book Description
"The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most significant, singular global disruption since World War II, with health, economic, political, and security implications that will ripple for years to come." -Global Trends 2040 (2021) Global Trends 2040-A More Contested World (2021), released by the US National Intelligence Council, is the latest report in its series of reports starting in 1997 about megatrends and the world's future. This report, strongly influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic, paints a bleak picture of the future and describes a contested, fragmented and turbulent world. It specifically discusses the four main trends that will shape tomorrow's world: - Demographics-by 2040, 1.4 billion people will be added mostly in Africa and South Asia. - Economics-increased government debt and concentrated economic power will escalate problems for the poor and middleclass. - Climate-a hotter world will increase water, food, and health insecurity. - Technology-the emergence of new technologies could both solve and cause problems for human life. Students of trends, policymakers, entrepreneurs, academics, journalists and anyone eager for a glimpse into the next decades, will find this report, with colored graphs, essential reading.

Author: International Monetary Fund. European Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 100

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Book Description
The euro area economy has been resilient in the face of multiple, large shocks, including the pandemic, Russia’s gas shut-off, and fallout from the war in Ukraine. Nonetheless, the adverse shocks have had persistent effects which shape economic prospects. Energy-intensive industries, in particular, have struggled to adjust to higher input costs and continue to underperform. Despite subdued overall activity, employment growth remains robust. Inflation has declined significantly from its late-2022 peak in response to the ECB’s policy tightening and the decline in commodity prices.

Author: International Monetary
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 202

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Book Description
The latest World Economic Outlook reports economic activity was surprisingly resilient through the global disinflation of 2022–23, despite significant central bank interest rate hikes to restore price stability. Risks to the global outlook are now broadly balanced compared with last year. Monetary policy should ensure that inflation touches down smoothly, while a renewed focus on fiscal consolidation is needed to rebuild room for budgetary maneuver and to ensure debt sustainability. Structural reforms are crucial to revive medium-term growth prospects amid constrained policy space.

Author: Brian Bow
Publisher: UBC Press
ISBN: 0774859067
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 235

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Book Description
Do Canada and the United States share a special relationship, or is this just a face-saving myth, masking dependency and domination? The Politics of Linkage cuts through the rhetoric that clouds this debate by offering detailed accounts of four major bilateral disputes. It shows that the United States has not made coercive linkages between issues. In the early Cold War years, the exercise of American power over Canada was held in check by a genuinely special diplomatic culture but since then has been held back only by interest groups and institutions. This revisionist account of Canada-US relations is essential reading for anyone interested in Canadian politics, American foreign policy, or international diplomacy.

Author: Robin Alison Remington
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield
ISBN: 144222679X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 435

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Book Description
This timely book examines post-communist developments in Russia, central Europe, and the Balkans, emphasizing foreign and security policies and their domestic linkages. Framed around the concepts of globalization and regime change, the rich set of case studies traces the repercussions for politicians and institutions forced to adjust to the disappearance of the “East” from the cold war’s East-West polarity. The contributors explore how each country has grappled with such questions as how to change from one party to many, how to create viable market economies, and how to restructure security alliances. They conclude by considering the prospects for further regime change from democracies to hybrid systems and the implications for the future of the European Union.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Asia and Pacific Dept
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 135

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Book Description
Indonesia’s growth remains strong despite external headwinds. Inflation is firmly in the target range and the financial sector is resilient. The authorities have been pursuing an ambitious growth agenda to reach high-income status by 2045. This comprises public spending, institutional reforms, and Industrial Policy (IP). Risks are broadly balanced. Key downside risks include persistent commodity price volatility (e.g., from geopolitical shocks), an abrupt slowdown in Indonesia’s key trading partners, or adverse spillovers from tighter-for-longer global financial conditions. On the domestic side, a weakening of long-standing sound macro-fiscal frameworks could hamper policy credibility. On the upside, stronger-than-anticipated growth in trading partners or faster disinflation in AEs could prop up growth while deep structural reforms would raise growth over the medium term.

Author: Priscilla Roberts
Publisher: Hong Kong University Press
ISBN: 9888208004
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 267

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Book Description
The Cold War was a distinct and crucial period in Hong Kong's evolution and in its relations with China and the rest of the world. Hong Kong was a window through which the West could monitor what was happening in China and an outlet that China could use to keep in touch with the outside world. Exploring the many complexities of Cold War politics from a global and interdisciplinary perspective, Hong Kong in the Cold War shows how Hong Kong attained and honed a pragmatic tradition that bridged the abyss between such opposite ideas as capitalism and communism, thus maintaining a compromise between China and the rest of the world. The chapters are written by nine leading international scholars and address issues of diplomacy and politics, finance and economics, intelligence and propaganda, refugees and humanitarianism, tourism and popular culture, and their lasting impact on Hong Kong. Far from simply describing a historical period, these essays show that Hong Kong's unique Cold War experience may provide a viable blueprint for modern-day China to develop a similar model of good governance and may in fact hold the key to the successful implementation of the One Country Two Systems idea. “This is a timely collection of essays on the role of Hong Kong in a global context and its multifaceted relationship with mainland China. It is emerging at a particularly appropriate moment when the local community has been provoked to reflect on its common fate under the notion of ‘one country, two systems.’” —Ray Yep, City University of Hong Kong “Hong Kong, the ‘Berlin of the East,’ was transformed by the Cold War, an existential conflict between capitalism and communism. Consequently, this fine volume is a must-read for political, cultural, and economic historians of Hong Kong. International historians should also add this collection of essays and cutting-edge empirical studies to their reading lists: it will enrich their understandings of the Global Cold War.” —David Clayton, University of York