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Author: Lucy Anne Salazar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Fire weather Languages : en Pages : 16
Book Description
Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the northern Rocky Mountains were treated as probability distributions, then used in computer simulation to estimate distributions of rate-of-spread (ROS) and fireline intensity (FLI). Sensitivity of ROS and FLl to weather input changes was analyzed by varying the source and amount of weather data, and diurnally adjusting temperature and relative humidity. In eight representative cases, a minimum amount of data produced the lowest cumulative probabilities of ROS and FLl, and data from a higher elevation produced the highest values. For long-term planning, within the region studied, a small subset of weather data distributions was adequate for estimating probabilistic distributions of ROS and FLI. Joint probabilities of ROS and FLI differed substantially among test cases. Fire behavior values obtained with observed data were higher than those obtained with diurnally adjusted data. The simulation techniques used are appropriate for use in long-term fire management planning models.
Author: Lucy Anne Salazar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Fire weather Languages : en Pages : 16
Book Description
Data that represent average worst fire weather for a particular area are used to index daily fire danger; however, they do not account for different locations or diurnal weather changes that significantly affect fire behavior potential. To study the effects that selected changes in weather databases have on computed fire behavior parameters, weather data for the northern Rocky Mountains were treated as probability distributions, then used in computer simulation to estimate distributions of rate-of-spread (ROS) and fireline intensity (FLI). Sensitivity of ROS and FLl to weather input changes was analyzed by varying the source and amount of weather data, and diurnally adjusting temperature and relative humidity. In eight representative cases, a minimum amount of data produced the lowest cumulative probabilities of ROS and FLl, and data from a higher elevation produced the highest values. For long-term planning, within the region studied, a small subset of weather data distributions was adequate for estimating probabilistic distributions of ROS and FLI. Joint probabilities of ROS and FLI differed substantially among test cases. Fire behavior values obtained with observed data were higher than those obtained with diurnally adjusted data. The simulation techniques used are appropriate for use in long-term fire management planning models.
Author: U. S. Department of Agriculture Publisher: ISBN: 9781976893469 Category : Languages : en Pages : 358
Book Description
Weather is never static. It is always dynamic. Its interpretation is an art. The environment is in control in wildland firefighting. Free-burning fires are literally nourished by weather elements, atmospheric components, and atmospheric motion. Outguessing Mother Nature in order to win control is an extremely difficult task. We need to soothe her with understanding. We have attempted to present information in such a way that your daily and seasonal awareness of fire weather can begin with reliable basic knowledge. We have kept the use of technical terms to a minimum, but where it was necessary for clear and accurate presentation, we have introduced and defined the proper terms. Growing awareness of fire weather, when combined with related experience on fires, can develop into increasingly intuitive, rapid, and accurate applications. Toward this end, we have preceded each chapter with a paragraph or two on important points to look for in relating weather factors to fire control planning and action. The illustrations are designed to help you "see" the weather from many different locations. The illustrations should help you to evaluate fire weather in all of its dimensions, and simultaneously to keep track of its continually changing character.CHAPTER 1 - BASIC PRINCIPLES - The primary causes of the actions, reactions, and interactions of the components of the atmosphere and the elements of weather need to be understood because the behavior of wildland fire depends upon them. CHAPTER 2 - TEMPERATURE - The continual changes in land, sea, and air temperatures from hot to cold during day and night and summer and winter affect fire-weather judgments and predictions. CHAPTER 3 - ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE - The amount of water vapor in the air-the degree of "wetness" and "dryness" as a condition of fire weather-must be considered in all evaluations of wildland fire potential and control. CHAPTER 4 - ATMOSPHERIC STABILITY - The distributions of temperature and moisture aloft, although difficult to perceive thousands of feet above the surface, can critically influence the behavior of a wildland fire. CHAPTER 5 - GENERAL CIRCULATION - Large-scale circulation of air and moisture in the atmosphere sets the regional patterns for both long-term trends and seasonal variations in fire weather. CHAPTER 6 - GENERAL WINDS - An understanding of the mechanics of wind flow as measured and expressed in terms of speed and vertical and horizontal directions, both regionally and locally, are of extreme importance to the wildland fire-control man. CHAPTER 7 - CONVECTIVE WINDS - Local surface conditions resulting in the heating and cooling of the surface air cause air motions which can account for "unusual" wind behavior on a wildland fire. CHAPTER 8 - AIR MASSES AND FRONTS - Both warm and cold air masses, usually coincident with high-pressure cells, migrate constantly over areas of thousands of square miles. When they are stationary, fire weather changes only gradually from day to, day, but when they move and overtake or encounter other air masses, weather elements do change-often -suddenly. CHAPTER 9 - CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION - Clouds, in both amounts and kinds, or their absence, are indicators of fire-weather conditions that must be evaluated daily. Some can locally forewarn fire-control men of high fire hazard.-Not all of them produce rain. CHAPTER 10 - THUNDERSTORMS - When a moist air mass becomes unstable, thunderstorms are likely. Their fire-starting potential and effect on fire behavior can be anticipated if the weather conditions, which produce them, are understood. CHAPTER 11 - WEATHER AND FUEL MOISTURE - The response of both living and dead forest and range fuels, the food on which wildland fire feeds, to atmospheric and precipitated moisture affect wildland fire prevention and control. CHAPTER 12 - FIRE CLIMATE REGIONS - An overall look and a summary of regional fire-weather characteristics.
Author: Jonathan Gendron Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Anthropogenic climate change has shifted forest fire regimes in the Pacific Northwest U.S by increasing wildfire frequency and area burned and the shift is projected to continue during the 21st century if temperature and summertime aridity continually increase. Such changes threaten natural resources in these systems, including drinking water reservoirs, which could see reduced water quality during post-fire recovery. Productive forests with historically flammability-limited wildfire regimes are susceptible to large-scale high-severity events because of large fuel sinks; therefore, as flammability increases with climate change, the frequency of these events is also expected to increase. However, it is unclear how climate change and wildfire will alter long-term fuel availability in these forests; if a strong fuel limitation develops, it could potentially offset increases in fuel flammability. Herein, we apply RHESSys-WMFire, a process-based ecohydrological framework coupled with a stochastic fire-spread model and a post-fire effects model, to explore the long-term coevolution of climate, vegetation, and wildfire in a historically climate-limited forest in the western cascades as it responds to two future climate scenarios: (1) one that enforces extreme fire-weather, and (2) one that is less arid and more suitable for forest production. Both scenarios feature three 525-year climate sequences to capture the co-evolution of vegetation and fire behavior for three stable climate regimes: the present, near future (2040s), and distant future (2070s). Each sequence was constructed from 30 years of climate data from existing CMIP5 GCM using a randomized climate resampling technique. We found both climate storylines forced a fuel limitation that increased during the 21st-century; however, increases in fuel flammability were greater, and resulted in increases in wildfire size, frequency, and area burned in near and distant future relative to the present. The severity of fuel limitation also corresponded with shifts in the fire-size distribution and the fire recurrence interval of different elevations, wherein strong fuel limitation caused relatively smaller fires and lower frequency. We surmise that reduced fuel availability will scale with the severity of climate forcing; however, in forests where fuel flammability is presently low, it will begin to limit wildfire behavior until a certain threshold has been reached.
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309380979 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 187
Book Description
As climate has warmed over recent years, a new pattern of more frequent and more intense weather events has unfolded across the globe. Climate models simulate such changes in extreme events, and some of the reasons for the changes are well understood. Warming increases the likelihood of extremely hot days and nights, favors increased atmospheric moisture that may result in more frequent heavy rainfall and snowfall, and leads to evaporation that can exacerbate droughts. Even with evidence of these broad trends, scientists cautioned in the past that individual weather events couldn't be attributed to climate change. Now, with advances in understanding the climate science behind extreme events and the science of extreme event attribution, such blanket statements may not be accurate. The relatively young science of extreme event attribution seeks to tease out the influence of human-cause climate change from other factors, such as natural sources of variability like El Niño, as contributors to individual extreme events. Event attribution can answer questions about how much climate change influenced the probability or intensity of a specific type of weather event. As event attribution capabilities improve, they could help inform choices about assessing and managing risk, and in guiding climate adaptation strategies. This report examines the current state of science of extreme weather attribution, and identifies ways to move the science forward to improve attribution capabilities.
Author: Eric S. Kasischke Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media ISBN: 0387216294 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 490
Book Description
A discussion of the direct and indirect mechanisms by which fire and climate interact to influence carbon cycling in North American boreal forests. The first section summarizes the information needed to understand and manage fires' effects on the ecology of boreal forests and its influence on global climate change issues. Following chapters discuss in detail the role of fire in the ecology of boreal forests, present data sets on fire and the distribution of carbon, and treat the use of satellite imagery in monitoring these regions as well as approaches to modeling the relevant processes.
Author: Yves Bergeron Publisher: MDPI ISBN: 3038423904 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 433
Book Description
This book is a printed edition of the Special Issue "Fire Regimes: Spatial and Temporal Variability and Their Effects on Forests" that was published in Forests
Author: Stéphane Vannitsem Publisher: Elsevier ISBN: 9780128123720 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts brings together chapters contributed by international subject-matter experts describing the current state of the art in the statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts. The book illustrates the use of these methods in several important applications including weather, hydrological and climate forecasts, and renewable energy forecasting. After an introductory section on ensemble forecasts and prediction systems, the second section of the book is devoted to exposition of the methods available for statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts: univariate and multivariate ensemble postprocessing are first reviewed by Wilks (Chapters 3), then Schefzik and Möller (Chapter 4), and the more specialized perspective necessary for postprocessing forecasts for extremes is presented by Friederichs, Wahl, and Buschow (Chapter 5). The second section concludes with a discussion of forecast verification methods devised specifically for evaluation of ensemble forecasts (Chapter 6 by Thorarinsdottir and Schuhen). The third section of this book is devoted to applications of ensemble postprocessing. Practical aspects of ensemble postprocessing are first detailed in Chapter 7 (Hamill), including an extended and illustrative case study. Chapters 8 (Hemri), 9 (Pinson and Messner), and 10 (Van Schaeybroeck and Vannitsem) discuss ensemble postprocessing specifically for hydrological applications, postprocessing in support of renewable energy applications, and postprocessing of long-range forecasts from months to decades. Finally, Chapter 11 (Messner) provides a guide to the ensemble-postprocessing software available in the R programming language, which should greatly help readers implement many of the ideas presented in this book. Edited by three experts with strong and complementary expertise in statistical postprocessing of ensemble forecasts, this book assesses the new and rapidly developing field of ensemble forecast postprocessing as an extension of the use of statistical corrections to traditional deterministic forecasts. Statistical Postprocessing of Ensemble Forecasts is an essential resource for researchers, operational practitioners, and students in weather, seasonal, and climate forecasting, as well as users of such forecasts in fields involving renewable energy, conventional energy, hydrology, environmental engineering, and agriculture.
Author: Lucy Anne Salazar
Author: Lucy Anne Salazar
Author: Lucy Ann Salazar
Author: U. S. Department of Agriculture
Author: Jonathan Gendron
Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Author: Mark J. Schroeder
Author: Eric S. Kasischke
Author: Mark J. Schroeder
Author: Yves Bergeron
Author: Stéphane Vannitsem