Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis PDF Download

Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 3319782428
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 596

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Book Description
Causal analytics methods can revolutionize the use of data to make effective decisions by revealing how different choices affect probabilities of various outcomes. This book presents and illustrates models, algorithms, principles, and software for deriving causal models from data and for using them to optimize decisions with uncertain outcomes. It discusses how to describe and summarize situations; detect changes; evaluate effects of policies or interventions; learn what works best under different conditions; predict values of as-yet unobserved quantities from available data; and identify the most likely explanations for observed outcomes, including surprises and anomalies. The book resents practical techniques for causal modeling and analytics that practitioners can apply to improve understanding of how choices affect probabilities of consequences and, based on this understanding, to recommend choices that are more likely to accomplish their intended objectives.The book begins with a survey of modern analytics methods, focusing mainly on techniques useful for decision, risk, and policy analysis. Chapter 2 introduces free in-browser software, including the Causal Analytics Toolkit (CAT) software, to enable readers to perform the analyses described and to apply modern analytics methods easily to their own data sets. Chapters 3 through 11 show how to apply causal analytics and risk analytics to practical risk analysis challenges, mainly related to public and occupational health risks from pathogens in food or from pollutants in air. Chapters 12 through 15 turn to broader questions of how to improve risk management decision-making by individuals, groups, organizations, institutions, and multi-generation societies with different cultures and norms for cooperation. These chapters examine organizational learning, community resilience, societal risk management, and intergenerational collaboration and justice in managing risks.

Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3031320131
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 443

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Book Description
This book explains and illustrates recent developments and advances in decision-making and risk analysis. It demonstrates how artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) have not only benefitted from classical decision analysis concepts such as expected utility maximization but have also contributed to making normative decision theory more useful by forcing it to confront realistic complexities. These include skill acquisition, uncertain and time-consuming implementation of intended actions, open-world uncertainties about what might happen next and what consequences actions can have, and learning to cope effectively with uncertain and changing environments. The result is a more robust and implementable technology for AI/ML-assisted decision-making. The book is intended to inform a wide audience in related applied areas and to provide a fun and stimulating resource for students, researchers, and academics in data science and AI-ML, decision analysis, and other closely linked academic fields. It will also appeal to managers, analysts, decision-makers, and policymakers in financial, health and safety, environmental, business, engineering, and security risk management.

Author: Terje Aven
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429642725
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 316

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Book Description
This book provides a comprehensive demonstration of risk analysis as a distinct science covering risk understanding, assessment, perception, communication, management, governance and policy. It presents and discusses the key pillars of this science, and provides guidance on how to conduct high-quality risk analysis. The Science of Risk Analysis seeks to strengthen risk analysis as a field and science by summarizing and extending current work on the topic. It presents the foundation for a distinct risk field and science based on recent research, and explains the difference between applied risk analysis (to provide risk knowledge and tackle risk problems in relation to for example medicine, engineering, business or climate change) and generic risk analysis (on concepts, theories, frameworks, approaches, principles, methods and models to understand, assess, characterise, communicate, manage and govern risk). The book clarifies and describes key risk science concepts, and builds on recent foundational work conducted by the Society for Risk Analysis in order to provide new perspectives on science and risk analysis. The topics covered are accompanied by cases and examples relating to current issues throughout. This book is essential reading for risk analysis professionals, scientists, students and practitioners, and will also be of interest to scientists and practitioners from other fields who apply risk analysis in their work.

Author: Gilberto Montibeller
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030981320
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 525

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Book Description
Health threats pose significant dangers to humankind and form a major source of human suffering and sorrow. Responsible leadership and reasoned decision making can significantly improve the arenas that are affected by health threats, through establishing a better allocation of very scarce resources for building health capabilities and for increasing health preparedness, responsiveness and resilience. This book examines how public health leaders can use the cutting-edge research from Decision Sciences to better manage emerging and re-emerging health threats, with a focus on enhancing health security. While these decisions must be informed by the best available evidence, they must also address competing priorities and key uncertainties and must mitigate critical risks, albeit in a cost-effective manner which seeks to maximize societal value. This is a book about how decisions on health security can be improved, both in terms of the content that is utilized in a health decision analysis and the decision processes that are employed in reaching a decision. This decision-focused perspective can help public health leaders and public health experts to increase the health preparedness of health systems, the task of which involves improving health capabilities, increasing the robustness of health systems against health threats, as well as strengthening health resilience and the responsiveness of these systems against disease outbreaks.

Author: Amit Sharma
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1000012492
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 254

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Book Description
The study of decision-making in foodservice is still a relatively new area of scholarly interest. The application of cost-benefit analysis and behavioral finance and economics in the foodservice context is rare. This volume, Financial Decision-Making in the Foodservice Industry: Economic Costs and Benefits,fills that gap and focuses on cost-benefit analysis, decision-making, behavioral finance, economic theories, and their application in foodservice and restaurant industry. The volume synthesizes these major themes by developing new theoretical foundations and presenting findings from the investigation of managerial practice. The authors cover an abundance of topical issues, including ethical obligations in foodservice, sustainability issues in the foodservice/restaurant industry, farm-to-school and local food expenditures in school foodservice settings, managerial traits and behavior in the foodservice industry, and more.

Author: Louis Anthony Cox Jr.
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 3030573583
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 543

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Book Description
This book highlights quantitative risk assessment and modeling methods for assessing health risks caused by air pollution, as well as characterizing and communicating remaining uncertainties. It shows how to apply modern data science, artificial intelligence and machine learning, causal analytics, mathematical modeling, and risk analysis to better quantify human health risks caused by environmental and occupational exposures to air pollutants. The adverse health effects that are caused by air pollution, and preventable by reducing it, instead of merely being statistically associated with exposure to air pollution (and with other many conditions, from cold weather to low income) have proved to be difficult to quantify with high precision and confidence, largely because correlation is not causation. This book shows how to use recent advances in causal analytics and risk analysis to determine more accurately how reducing exposures affects human health risks. Quantitative Risk Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects is divided into three parts. Part I focuses mainly on quantitative simulation modelling of biological responses to exposures and resulting health risks. It considers occupational risks from asbestos and crystalline silica as examples, showing how dynamic simulation models can provide insights into more effective policies for protecting worker health. Part II examines limitations of regression models and the potential to instead apply machine learning, causal analysis, and Bayesian network learning methods for more accurate quantitative risk assessment, with applications to occupational risks from inhalation exposures. Finally, Part III examines applications to public health risks from air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution. The book applies freely available browser analytics software and data sets that allow readers to download data and carry out many of the analyses described, in addition to applying the techniques discussed to their own data. http://cox-associates.com:8899/

Author: United States. Congress. House. Committee on Science, Space, and Technology (2011). Subcommittee on Environment
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Environmental sciences
Languages : en
Pages : 356

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Book Description

Author: National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030937085X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 115

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Book Description
On March 19, 2014, the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine held a workshop on the topic of the sharing of data from environmental health research. Experts in the field of environmental health agree that there are benefits to sharing research data, but questions remain regarding how to effectively make these data available. The sharing of data derived from human subjects-making them both transparent and accessible to others-raises a host of ethical, scientific, and process questions that are not always present in other areas of science, such as physics, geology, or chemistry. The workshop participants explored key concerns, principles, and obstacles to the responsible sharing of data used in support of environmental health research and policy making while focusing on protecting the privacy of human subjects and addressing the concerns of the research community. Principles and Obstacles for Sharing Data from Environmental Health Research summarizes the presentations and discussions from the workshop.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030928547X
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 63

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Book Description
Changes in the 21st century security environment require new analytic approaches to support strategic deterrence. Because current adversaries may be deterred from the use of nuclear weapons differently than were Cold War adversaries, the Air Force needs an analytic process and tools that can help determine those Air Force capabilities that will successfully deter or defeat these new nuclear-armed adversaries and assure U.S. allies. While some analytic tools are available, a coherent approach for their use in developing strategy and policy appears to be lacking. Without a coherent analytic approach that addresses the nuances of today's security environment, Air Force views of its strategic deterrence needs may not be understood or accepted by the appropriate decision makers. A coherent approach will support Air Force decisions about its strategic force priorities and needs, deter actual or potential adversaries, and assure U.S. allies. In this context, the Air Force in 2012 requested that the Air Force Studies Board of the National Research Council undertake a workshop to bring together national experts to discuss current challenges relating strategic deterrence and potential new tools and methods that the Air Force might leverage in its strategic deterrence mission. The workshop consisted of two 3-day sessions held in Washington, DC on September 26-28, 2012 and January 29-31, 2013 and was attended by a very diverse set of participants with expertise in strategic deterrence and a range of analytic tools of potential interest to the Air Force. U.S. Air Force Strategic Deterrence Capabilities in the 21st Century Security Environment summarizes this workshop.

Author: Judea Pearl
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1119186862
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 162

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Book Description
CAUSAL INFERENCE IN STATISTICS A Primer Causality is central to the understanding and use of data. Without an understanding of cause–effect relationships, we cannot use data to answer questions as basic as "Does this treatment harm or help patients?" But though hundreds of introductory texts are available on statistical methods of data analysis, until now, no beginner-level book has been written about the exploding arsenal of methods that can tease causal information from data. Causal Inference in Statistics fills that gap. Using simple examples and plain language, the book lays out how to define causal parameters; the assumptions necessary to estimate causal parameters in a variety of situations; how to express those assumptions mathematically; whether those assumptions have testable implications; how to predict the effects of interventions; and how to reason counterfactually. These are the foundational tools that any student of statistics needs to acquire in order to use statistical methods to answer causal questions of interest. This book is accessible to anyone with an interest in interpreting data, from undergraduates, professors, researchers, or to the interested layperson. Examples are drawn from a wide variety of fields, including medicine, public policy, and law; a brief introduction to probability and statistics is provided for the uninitiated; and each chapter comes with study questions to reinforce the readers understanding.