Catching Up and Credit Booms in Central and Eastern European EU Member States and Acceding Countries PDF Download

Author: Peter Backé
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 35

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Author: Peter Backe
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 40

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Credit to the private sector has risen rapidly in many Central and Eastern European EU Member States (MS) and acceding countries (AC) in recent years. The lending boom has recently been particularly strong in the segment of loans to households, primarily mortgage-based housing loans, and in those countries that operate currency boards or other forms of hard pegs. The main aim of this paper is to propose a conceptual framework to analyze the observed developments with a view to exploring some policy implications at a stage in which these countries are preparing for their prospective integration with the euro area. To achieve this, we first use a stylized New Neoclassical Synthesis (NNS) framework, which has recently been advanced by Goodfriend (2002) and Goodfriend and King (2000). We then discuss the implications of the NNS model for credit dynamics and ensuing monetary policy challenges. Specifically, we emphasize consumption smoothing as an important channel of the observed credit expansion and we show how it is related to and how it affects the monetary policy making in MS and AC. In doing so, we place our discussion in the context of the monetary integration process in general and the nominal convergence process in particular.

Author: Sophie Sirtaine
Publisher: World Bank Publications
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 47

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High credit growth in Emerging Europe, generally considered a sign of catching-up with the "old" Europe, has begun receiving considerable attention among investors and policymakers alike. Given heightened global risks and the demands under the European Union accession process, the need to better understand this high credit growth's drivers, riskiness, and the possible macroeconomic and financial stability consequences is strong. The authors adopt a holistic approach in reviewing the rapid credit growth experienced in the region, examining macroeconomic, financial sector, corporate sector, and asset market consequences and possible vulnerabilities. They consider three possible scenarios-a catching-up with older European countries, a soft landing as experienced by Portugal in the early 2000s, and a hard landing as experienced by Asia in 1997.

Author: International Monetary Fund
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1455201138
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 47

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In the past decade, most of the EU New Member States experienced a severe credit-boom bust cycle. This paper argues that the credit boom-bust cycle was to a large extent the result of factors external to the region (“bad luck”). Rapid credit growth followed from a high liquidity in global markets and the particular attractiveness of “new Europe” for capital flows, while the end of the credit cycle was brought about by a global crisis. However, the fact that some countries managed to avoid most of the excesses, including asset price bubbles and foreign exchange lending, suggests that policies and policy failures (“bad policies”)—in particular overly expansionary macroeconomic settings and excessively optimistic views on prudential risks—also have played a critical role.

Author: Charles Enoch
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137001542
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 385

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Book Description
This book represents the latest developments and policy debate on the rapid growth of banking sector credit to the private sector, which continues to occupy the minds of academics and policymakers alike in many Central and Eastern European countries. The contributions discuss ways to assess and respond to excessive credit growth.

Author: Klaus Liebscher
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1847203035
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 570

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Book Description
Financial industries in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe have undergone dramatic changes over the past decade. Foreign direct investment contributed to the development of market-oriented banking and financial systems able to support the rapid pace of economic growth in these countries. Policymakers, academics and private sector analysts have contributed to this volume with their stimulating insights on a broad range of issues, from recent credit booms to the cross-border integration of banking and capital markets. Anyone who wants to understand how finance, growth and financial stability interact in transition economies should read this book. Mario Draghi, Governor of the Banca d Italia and Chairman of the Financial Stability Forum This book highlights the achievements and challenges of the ongoing process of financial integration in Europe. The financial integration of Europe is both welcomed as an economic driving force and watched with concern as a source of potential stability. After all, changing financial, regulatory and corporate ownership structures are fuelling competition, capital mobility and financial intermediation, but at the same time creating new systemic risks. With a special focus on Central, Eastern and South-Eastern Europe, the contributors to this book explore a wide spectrum of underlying issues, including the finance-growth nexus, credit boom patterns, the implications of foreign bank entry modes, lessons learned from old EU member states and commercial bank strategies. Authoritative views from central bank officials and policymakers are complemented with a special focus on empirical and econometric evidence from academia as well as practical insights from key financial market players. This unique collection will be of great interest to economists and experts in the fields of financial markets and European integration from central, commercial and investment banks, governments, international organizations, universities and research institutes.

Author: Marc Gérard
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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This research investigates the challenges of price level catching-up for macroeconomic stability in Central and Eastern European transition countries seeking to enter the Euro area. In this respect, an equilibrium real exchange rate model suggests that the process of real appreciation observed along economic catching-up in these countries can be ascribed to different relative price developments, depending on the exchange rate regime, as exemplified by contrasted external debt trajectories. In flexible exchange rate economies, the increase in the nominal exchange rate fosters an endogenous appreciation of the terms of trade in the medium run, by channelling foreign direct investment and associated productivity gains to the exposed sector of the economy, thus appreciating the equilibrium real exchange rate and strengthening the current account over time. In fixed exchange rate economies, positive valuation effects associated with the increase in domestic relative prices tend to divert investment to the sheltered sector, thus undermining external competitiveness and bringing about higher external debt. Furthermore, monetary integration entails specific risks for macroeconomic stability in catching-up economies, because it implies a process of rapid convergence in the financing conditions across member States, which takes place as soon as the perspective of accession to the common monetary area appears credible. A dynamic, rational expectations model shows that the appreciation of the nominal exchange rate becomes crucial to curtail the economic overheating triggered by the demand shock associated with financial convergence. By contrast, diminishing country risk premia under fixed exchange rate regimes are likely to cause 'boom bust' cycles, with an increase in external indebtedness followed by deflationary developments once in the monetary union.

Author: Reiner Martin
Publisher: Palgrave MacMillan
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 232

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"Real convergence has gained substantial momentum in central, eastern and south-eastern Europe. Countries in these regions are all involved in the European integration process, either as recently joined EU member states, candidate countries, or potential candidates for membership. It has therefore become increasingly important to consider methods of catching up, to explore cross-country differences and to review key policy challenges for the convergence process. Through considering these issues in detail, prospects for future adoption of the euro can also be assessed. This book brings together policymakers, high-level practitioners, academics, and experts from central banks and international institutions in order to explore the key policy challenges facing the convergence process. Contributions focus especially on inflation, growth, migration and the balance of payments. This book is an essential read for all scholars interested in the transition of central, eastern and south-eastern Europe, and in the process of EU integration and enlargement."--Book cover.

Author: Alessandro Giustiniani
Publisher: International Finance Section Department of Econ Ton Univers
ISBN:
Category : Economic assistance
Languages : en
Pages : 60

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Author: Luca Barbone
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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The countries of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) have much to gain from implementing policies that increase investment, support the development of human capital, and promote the legal, regulatory, and policy framework needed for market mechanisms to function. The faster they implement such changes, the faster they will bridge the income gap between them and the countries of the European Union - and the more likely their chances of successful integration.Joining the European Union (EU) is perhaps the key political and economic objective of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries as they approach the 21st century. But how successful the CEE countries are in achieving this goal depends not only on how well and quickly they adapt their legal and regulatory systems to EU requirements but on how well and quickly they bridge the wide income gaps between CEE and EU countries.Using a model and cross-section data to develop estimates, Barbone and Zalduendo investigate how appropriate structural policies adopted before and after accession to the EU can help CEE countries bridge this income gap.They have much to gain from implementing policies that increase investment, support the development of human capital, and promote the legal, regulatory, and policy framework needed for market mechanisms to function.The faster they implement such changes, the faster they will bridge the income gap between them and the EU countries - and the more likely their accession to the EU will be successful.This paper - a product of Country Department II, Europe and Central Asia - is part of a larger effort in the department to examine issues related to accession to EU by Central and Eastern European countries. Luca Barbone may be contacted at [email protected].