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Calculating Catastrophe

Calculating Catastrophe PDF Author: Gordon Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167385
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368

Book Description
Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.

Calculating Catastrophe

Calculating Catastrophe PDF Author: Gordon Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167385
Category : Technology & Engineering
Languages : en
Pages : 368

Book Description
Calculating Catastrophe has been written to explain, to a general readership, the underlying philosophical ideas and scientific principles that govern catastrophic events, both natural and man-made. Knowledge of the broad range of catastrophes deepens understanding of individual modes of disaster. This book will be of interest to anyone aspiring to understand catastrophes better, but will be of particular value to those engaged in public and corporate policy, and the financial markets.The author, Dr. Gordon Woo, was trained in mathematical physics at Cambridge, MIT and Harvard, and has made his career as a calculator of catastrophes. His diverse experience includes consulting for IAEA on the seismic safety of nuclear plants and for BP on offshore oil well drilling. As a catastrophist at Risk Management Solutions, he has advanced the insurance modelling of catastrophes, including designing a model for terrorism risk.

Calculating Catastrophe

Calculating Catastrophe PDF Author: G. Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1848167407
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 368

Book Description
1. Natural hazards. 1.1. Causation and association. 1.2. Extra-terrestrial hazards. 1.3. Meteorological hazards. 1.4. Geological hazards. 1.5. Geomorphic hazards. 1.6. Hydrological hazards -- 2. Societal hazards. 2.1. Political violence. 2.2. Infectious disease pandemics. 2.3. Industrial and transportation accidents. 2.4. Fraud catastrophe -- 3. A sense of scale. 3.1. Size scales of natural hazards. 3.2. Hazard spatial scales. 3.3. The human disaster toll. 3.4. Models of a fractal world -- 4. A measure of uncertainty. 4.1. The concept of probability. 4.2. The meaning of uncertainty. 4.3. Aleatory and epistemic uncertainty. 4.4. Probability ambiguity. 4.5. The weighing of evidence -- 5. A matter of time. 5.1. Temporal models of hazards. 5.2. Long-term data records. 5.3. Statistics of extremes -- 6. Catastrophe complexity. 6.1. Emergent catastrophes. 6.2. Financial crashes. 6.3. Ancillary hazards -- 7. Terrorism. 7.1. A thinking man's game. 7.2. Defeating terrorist networks. 7.3. Counter-radicalization -- 8. Forecasting. 8.1. Earthquake forecasting. 8.2. Verification. 8.3. River flows and sea waves. 8.4. Accelerating approach to criticality. 8.5. Evidence-based diagnosis -- 9. Disaster warning. 9.1. Decision in the balance. 9.2. Evacuation. 9.3. The wisdom of experts -- 10. Disaster scenarios. 10.1. Scenario simulation. 10.2. Footprints and vulnerability. 10.3. Fermi problems -- 11. Catastrophe cover. 11.1. Probable maximum loss. 11.2. Coherent risk measures. 11.3. The Samaritan's dilemma -- 12. Catastrophe risk securitization. 12.1. Catastrophe bonds. 12.2. The price of innovation -- 13. Risk horizons. 13.1. Ecological catastrophe. 13.2. Climate change. 13.3. War and conflict resolution

Catastrophe Modeling

Catastrophe Modeling PDF Author: Patricia Grossi
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 9780387230825
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 270

Book Description
Based on the research that has been conducted at Wharton Risk Management Center over the past five years on catastrophic risk. Covers a hot topic in the light of recent terroristic activities and nature catastrophes. Develops risk management strategies for reducing and spreading the losses from future disasters. Provides glossary of definitions and terms used throughout the book.

Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling

Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling PDF Author: Kirsten Mitchell-Wallace
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
ISBN: 1118906047
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 550

Book Description
This book covers both the practical and theoretical aspects of catastrophe modelling for insurance industry practitioners and public policymakers. Written by authors with both academic and industry experience it also functions as an excellent graduate-level text and overview of the field. Ours is a time of unprecedented levels of risk from both natural and anthropogenic sources. Fortunately, it is also an era of relatively inexpensive technologies for use in assessing those risks. The demand from both commercial and public interests—including (re)insurers, NGOs, global disaster management agencies, and local authorities—for sophisticated catastrophe risk assessment tools has never been greater, and contemporary catastrophe modelling satisfies that demand. Combining the latest research with detailed coverage of state-of-the-art catastrophe modelling techniques and technologies, this book delivers the knowledge needed to use, interpret, and build catastrophe models, and provides greater insight into catastrophe modelling’s enormous potential and possible limitations. The first book containing the detailed, practical knowledge needed to support practitioners as effective catastrophe risk modellers and managers Includes hazard, vulnerability and financial material to provide the only independent, comprehensive overview of the subject, accessible to students and practitioners alike Demonstrates the relevance of catastrophe models within a practical, decision-making framework and illustrates their many applications Includes contributions from many of the top names in the field, globally, from industry, academia, and government Natural Catastrophe Risk Management and Modelling: A Practitioner’s Guide is an important working resource for catastrophe modelling analysts and developers, actuaries, underwriters, and those working in compliance or regulatory functions related to catastrophe risk. It is also valuable for scientists and engineers seeking to gain greater insight into catastrophe risk management and its applications.

Catastrophe Time!

Catastrophe Time! PDF Author: Gary Zhexi Zhang
Publisher: MIT Press
ISBN: 1913689670
Category : Art
Languages : en
Pages : 281

Book Description
A collection of essays, fictions, and interviews exploring the weird temporalities of finance and catastrophe. Once, financial practitioners plied a hybrid trade as hydrologists, star-gazers, and weather-watchers who sought to discover the natural laws of value and exchange as they did the divine order of an unchanging nature. Today, corporate firms hire trend forecasters and scenario planners to play out strategic fictions in virtual worlds. Hurricane insurance markets simulate a turbulent climate to offer investment instruments to hedge against the risks of the stock market. And for financial astrologers operating in the city of London, celestial motions provide a cosmic map that orients the mood of terrestrial markets. Bringing together artists, researchers, and interstitial practitioners, Catastrophe Time! pays attention to the conditions of speculative knowledge on an increasingly volatile planet. Traversing a gray zone between rigorous research and operative science fictions, its contributors question how practices of speculation may transform, undermine, and at times exceed, the worlds they set out to model. Edited by artist Gary Zhexi Zhang, Catastrophe Time! explores the power of temporal technologies—whether currencies, conspiracies, or simulation models—to shape reality through fiction. By bringing together researchers and writers working at the boundaries of temporal practices, including Diann Bauer, Philip Grant, Bahar Noorizadeh, Habib William Kherbek, Klara Kofen, Kei Kreutler, Suhail Malik, Bassem Saad and Gordon Woo, this urgent volume seeks to make sense of the unraveling times in which we live.

The Cure for Catastrophe

The Cure for Catastrophe PDF Author: Robert Muir-Wood
Publisher: Basic Books
ISBN: 0465096476
Category : Nature
Languages : en
Pages : 370

Book Description
We can't stop natural disasters but we can stop them being disastrous. One of the world's foremost risk experts tells us how. Year after year, floods wreck people's homes and livelihoods, earthquakes tear communities apart, and tornadoes uproot whole towns. Natural disasters cause destruction and despair. But does it have to be this way? In The Cure for Catastrophe, global risk expert Robert Muir-Wood argues that our natural disasters are in fact human ones: We build in the wrong places and in the wrong way, putting brick buildings in earthquake country, timber ones in fire zones, and coastal cities in the paths of hurricanes. We then blindly trust our flood walls and disaster preparations, and when they fail, catastrophes become even more deadly. No society is immune to the twin dangers of complacency and heedless development. Recognizing how disasters are manufactured gives us the power to act. From the Great Lisbon Earthquake of 1755 to Hurricane Katrina, The Cure for Catastrophe recounts the ingenious ways in which people have fought back against disaster. Muir-Wood shows the power and promise of new predictive technologies, and envisions a future where information and action come together to end the pain and destruction wrought by natural catastrophes. The decisions we make now can save millions of lives in the future. Buzzing with political plots, newfound technologies, and stories of surprising resilience, The Cure for Catastrophe will revolutionize the way we conceive of catastrophes: though natural disasters are inevitable, the death and destruction are optional. As we brace ourselves for deadlier cataclysms, the cure for catastrophe is in our hands.

Warnings

Warnings PDF Author: Richard A. Clarke
Publisher: HarperCollins
ISBN: 006248804X
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 294

Book Description
From President Bill Clinton's recommended reading list Publishers Weekly Bestseller Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the U.S. economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, the spread of viruses and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters—from cyber attacks to pandemics—but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right? Through riveting explorations in a variety of fields, the authors—both accomplished CEOs and White House National Security Council veterans—discover a method to separate the accurate Cassandras from the crazy doomsayers. They then investigate the experts who today are warning of future disasters: the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, malware attacks, and more, and whose calls are not being heeded. Clarke’s and Eddy’s penetrating insights are essential for any person, any business, or any government that doesn’t want to be a blind victim of tomorrow’s catastrophe.

Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks

Quantifying and Controlling Catastrophic Risks PDF Author: B. John Garrick
Publisher: Academic Press
ISBN: 0080923453
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 374

Book Description
The perception, assessment and management of risk are increasingly important core principles for determining the development of both policy and strategic responses to civil and environmental catastrophes. Whereas these principles were once confined to some areas of activity i.e. financial and insurance, they are now widely used in civil and environmental engineering. Comprehensive and readable, Civil and Environmental Risk: Mitigation and Control, provides readers with the mathematical tools and quantitative methods for determining the probability of a catastrophic event and mitigating and controlling the aftermath. With this book engineers develop the required skills for accurately assessing risk and formulating appropriate response strategies. The two part treatment starts with a clear and rigorous exposition of the quantitative risk assessment process, followed by self-contained chapters concerning applications. One of the first books to address both natural and human generated disasters, topics include events such as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents and terrorist attacks. Case studies appear at the end of the book allowing engineers to see how these principles are applied to scenarios such as a super hurricane or mega tsunamis, a reactor core melt down in a nuclear plant, a terrorist attack on the national electric grid, and an abrupt climate change brought about by a change in the ocean currents in the North Atlantic. Written by the current Chairman of the U.S. Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Environmental risk managers will find this reference a valuable and authoritative guide both in accurately calculating risk and its applications in their work. Mathematical tools for calculating and Controlling Catastrophic Risk Presents a systematic method for ranking the importance of societal threats Includes both Natural and Industrial Catastrophes Case studies cover such events as pandemic diseases, climate changes, major hurricanes, super earthquakes, mega tsunamis, volcanic eruptions, industrial accidents, and terrorist attacks

The Mathematics Of Natural Catastrophes

The Mathematics Of Natural Catastrophes PDF Author: Gordon Woo
Publisher: World Scientific
ISBN: 1783261978
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 306

Book Description
This is a unique book about natural catastrophes, focusing on the mathematical aspects of these phenomena. Although academic in style and didactic in purpose, it is practical in the treatment of the diverse issues covered, which range from hazard warning and forecasting to engineering design criteria and insurance loss estimation. Addressing as it does many mathematical topics not found together in a single volume, the book should be of value to all those with a quantitative educational interest in or professional concern for natural catastrophes.

An Introduction to Catastrophe Theory

An Introduction to Catastrophe Theory PDF Author: Peter Timothy Saunders
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 9780521297820
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 162

Book Description
An introduction to catastrophe theory, a mathematical theory which deals with those changes which occur abruptly rather than smoothly. Includes many applications to illustrate the different ways in which catastrophe can be used in life, physical and social sciences.