Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization PDF Download

Author: Mr.Romain A Duval
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1475523599
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 46

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Book Description
This paper reexamines the relationship between trade integration and business cycle synchronization (BCS) using new value-added trade data for 63 advanced and emerging economies during 1995–2012. In a panel framework, we identify a strong positive impact of trade intensity on BCS—conditional on various controls, global common shocks and country-pair heterogeneity—that is absent when gross trade data are used. That effect is bigger in crisis times, pointing to trade as an important crisis propagation mechanism. Bilateral intra-industry trade and trade specialization correlation also appear to increase co-movement, indicating that not only the intensity but also the type of trade matters. Finally, we show that dependence on Chinese final demand in value-added terms amplifies the international spillovers and synchronizing impact of growth shocks in China.

Author: Filippo di Mauro
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230282075
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 236

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Book Description
Looking at historical cross-country interactions, this book examines the role of the US in the world economy. Illustrating that US shocks tend to have a global nature and that Monetary Union only partially shelters the Euro area from its external environment, the US should fully assume its responsibility, minimizing shock transmission.

Author: Ms.Valerie Cerra
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1513536990
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 50

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Book Description
Traditionally, economic growth and business cycles have been treated independently. However, the dependence of GDP levels on its history of shocks, what economists refer to as “hysteresis,” argues for unifying the analysis of growth and cycles. In this paper, we review the recent empirical and theoretical literature that motivate this paradigm shift. The renewed interest in hysteresis has been sparked by the persistence of the Global Financial Crisis and fears of a slow recovery from the Covid-19 crisis. The findings of the recent literature have far-reaching conceptual and policy implications. In recessions, monetary and fiscal policies need to be more active to avoid the permanent scars of a downturn. And in good times, running a high-pressure economy could have permanent positive effects.

Author: J. Hölscher
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 1137426411
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 409

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Book Description
Poland is one of Europe's economic out-performers. The country's history and geography encourage it to be in favour of deeper European integration. This book aims to contribute to discussions on the future shape of EMU and the next steps ahead.

Author: Sławomir Ireneusz Bukowski
Publisher: Routledge
ISBN: 0429575610
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 123

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Book Description
This book introduces readers to the world of international financial markets and their integration on a global and regional scale. The author presents the theoretical and practical issues concerning the processes of financial market integration, with a particular focus on the monetary union. The empirical research results are based on econometric modeling, thus simplifying them for a non-specialist audience, who can instead concentrate on the author’s conclusions, which comprise the results of these complicated research methods. The author outlines the role and functions of financial markets in the economy, in particular the relationship between financial intermediaries and financial markets and tackles the question of integration of new EU member countries’ financial markets within the eurozone. The integration of financial markets in an international context is inevitable, and the author argues that we must learn how to benefit from it from in terms of economic growth. This book will be a valuable resource for students of economics and finance, particularly those studying financial management and international business and finance, as well as professionals in these fields. Further, this book will be of interest to anyone looking to discover more about the problems of globalization and the integration of financial markets into the modern economy.

Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451870019
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 51

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Book Description
This paper analyzes the evolution of the degree of global cyclical interdependence over the period 1960-2005. We categorize the 106 countries in our sample into three groups-industrial countries, emerging markets, and other developing economies. Using a dynamic factor model, we then decompose macroeconomic fluctuations in key macroeconomic aggregates-output, consumption, and investment-into different factors. These are: (i) a global factor, which picks up fluctuations that are common across all variables and countries; (ii) three group-specific factors, which capture fluctuations that are common to all variables and all countries within each group of countries; (iii) country factors, which are common across all aggregates in a given country; and (iv) idiosyncratic factors specific to each time series. Our main result is that, during the period of globalization (1985-2005), there has been some convergence of business cycle fluctuations among the group of industrial economies and among the group of emerging market economies. Surprisingly, there has been a concomitant decline in the relative importance of the global factor. In other words, there is evidence of business cycle convergence within each of these two groups of countries but divergence (or decoupling) between them.

Author: Mala Raghavan
Publisher: Springer Nature
ISBN: 9811616183
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 114

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Book Description
This book highlights the critical relationship between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) associated with its trade interdependency. As the largest trade partner in the region, China has not only presented itself with opportunities for ASEAN to tap its market, but also created great challenges for the region. The fundamental question that this book addresses, therefore, is whether China’s engagement with ASEAN comes at a cost for the latter following from the systemic risks tied to the China-centric supply chains in the region. The trade interactions between China and ASEAN, though extensively explored, are less understood in the context of its influence over the region amidst the recent changing dynamics that follow from China’s global engagement and backlash from major powers. The book therefore resolutely rises against stereotypes and clichés, making readers reconsider many oversimplified assumptions of the benefits of trade engagement where economies are interconnected through complex production chains.

Author: Mr.Ayhan Kose
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 148439173X
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 526

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Book Description
As the debates about the recent global recession and the subsequent recovery have clearly shown, our understanding of these questions has been very limited. This comprehensive text puts the latest global recession and ongoing recovery in perspective. With the support of a companion website and DVD, we have created several multimedia tools to help understand the basics.

Author: Mr.Jean Imbs
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451850387
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 43

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Book Description
The paper investigates the determinants of business cycles synchronization across regions. It uses both international and intranational data to evaluate the linkages between trade in goods, trade in financial assets, specialization and business cycles synchronization using a system of simultaneous equations. The results are as follows: (i) Simultaneity is important, as both trade and financial openness have a direct and an indirect effect on cycle synchronization. (ii) A variety of alternative measures of financial integration suggest that regions with strong financial links are significantly more synchronized, though they are also more specialized. (iii) Specialization patterns have a sizable effect on business cycles, beyond their reflection of intra-industry trade, and of openness to goods and assets trade. (iv) The estimated role of trade is in line with existing models once intra-industry trade is controlled for. The results relate to a recent strand of international business cycle models with incomplete markets and transport costs, and, on the empirical side, point to an important omission in the usual criteria defining an optimal currency area, namely specialization patterns.

Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1589068068
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 252

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Book Description
This edition of the World Economic Outlook explores how a dramatic escalation of the financial crisis in September 2008 provoked an unprecedented contraction of activity and trade, despite active policy responses. It presents economic projections for 2009 and 2010, and also looks beyond the current crisis, considering factors that will shape the landscape of the global economy over the medium term, as businesses and households seek to repair the damage. The analysis also outlines the difficult policy challenges presented by the overwhelming imperative to take all steps necessary to restore financial stability and revive the global economy, and the longer-run need for national actions to be mutually supporting. The first of two analytical chapters, "What Kind of Economic Recovery?" explores the shape of the eventual recovery. The second, "The Transmission of Financial Stress from Advanced to Emerging and Developing Economies," focuses on the role of external financial linkages and financial stress in transmitting economic shocks.