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Author: Victor Zarnowitz Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226978923 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 613
Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author: Victor Zarnowitz Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226978923 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 613
Book Description
This volume presents the most complete collection available of the work of Victor Zarnowitz, a leader in the study of business cycles, growth, inflation, and forecasting.. With characteristic insight, Zarnowitz examines theories of the business cycle, including Keynesian and monetary theories and more recent rational expectation and real business cycle theories. He also measures trends and cycles in economic activity; evaluates the performance of leading indicators and their composite measures; surveys forecasting tools and performance of business and academic economists; discusses historical changes in the nature and sources of business cycles; and analyzes how successfully forecasting firms and economists predict such key economic variables as interest rates and inflation.
Author: Karl Heinrich Oppenländer Publisher: ISBN: 9781859724361 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 314
Book Description
The pressure to produce explanations and forecasts and the economic dichotomies which insist on appearing, lead to a desire to deal with the description, analysis and forecast of the phenomenon of business cycles using economic indicators. This text provides an introduction to business cycles and their theoretical and historical basis. It also includes work on early indicator research and provides examples of business cycle indicators.
Author: Kajal Lahiri Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9780521438582 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 488
Book Description
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators.
Author: James H. Stock Publisher: University of Chicago Press ISBN: 0226774740 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 350
Book Description
The inability of forecasters to predict accurately the 1990-1991 recession emphasizes the need for better ways for charting the course of the economy. In this volume, leading economists examine forecasting techniques developed over the past ten years, compare their performance to traditional econometric models, and discuss new methods for forecasting and time series analysis.
Author: Mr.Vadim Khramov Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1484381297 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 60
Book Description
Existing economic indicators and indexes assess economic activity but no single indicator measures the general macro-economic performance of a nation, state, or region in a methodologically simple and intuitive way. This paper proposes a simple, yet informative metric called the Economic Performance Index (EPI). The EPI represents a step toward clarity, by combining data on inflation, unemployment, government deficit, and GDP growth into a single indicator. In contrast to other indexes, the EPI does not use complicated mathematical procedures but was designed for simplicity, making it easier for professionals and laypeople alike to understand and apply to the economy. To maximize ease of understanding, we adopt a descriptive grading system. In addition to a Raw EPI that gives equal weights to its components, we construct a Weighted EPI and show that both indexes perform similarly for U.S. data. To demonstrate the validity of the EPI, we conduct a review of U.S. history from 1790 to 2012. We show that the EPI reflects the major events in U.S. history, including wars, periods of economic prosperity and booms, along with economic depressions, recessions, and even panics. Furthermore, the EPI not only captures official recessions over the past century but also allows for measuring and comparing their relative severity. Even though the EPI is simple by its construction, we show that its dynamics are similar to those of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) and The Conference Board Coincident Economic Index® (CEI).
Author: Michael Griffis Publisher: John Wiley & Sons ISBN: 1118037626 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 411
Book Description
Everything you need to easily get a handle on economic indicators In today's volatile, often troubling economic landscape, there are myriad statistics and reports that paint an economic picture that can sometimes resemble a work by Jackson Pollock. These complex and often-conflicting reports could vex even the savviest investor. Economic Indicators For Dummies explains how to interpret and use key global economic indicators to make solid investments, aid in business planning, and help develop informed decisions. In plain English, it breaks down the complex language and statistics to help you make sense of this critical information. You'll discover how to interpret economic data within the context of other sometimes-conflicting reports and statistics, and use the information to make profitable decisions. You'll understand the meaning of such data as employment indices and housing and construction stats and how they affect stocks, bonds, commodities and international markets . . . and how you can use these statistics to make investment decisions as well as plan strategic goals for business growth. Economic Indicators For Dummies breaks down dozens of statistics and patterns to give you a better understanding of how various sources of data and information can be used. Breaks down jargon and statistical concepts Covers how to use publicly available economic indicators to better position your portfolio, improve returns, and make sensible, long-range business plans Discusses the reliability and timeliness of the collected data, while helping investors prioritize the flow of economic information to avoid information overload Whether you're an investor, economics student, or business professional involved in making key strategic decisions for your company, Economic Indicators For Dummies has you covered.
Author: Sergey Smirnov Publisher: Springer ISBN: 331990017X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 505
Book Description
This volume focuses on the analysis and measurement of business cycles in Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (BRICS). Divided into five parts, it begins with an overview of the main concepts and problems involved in monitoring and forecasting business cycles. Then it highlights the role of BRICS in the global economy and explores the interrelatedness of business cycles within BRICS. In turn, part two provides studies on the historical development of business cycles in the individual BRICS countries and describes the driving forces behind those cycles. Parts three and four present national business tendency surveys and composite cyclical indices for real-time monitoring and forecasting of various BRICS economies, while the final part discusses how the lessons learned in the BRICS countries can be used for the analysis of business cycles and their socio-political consequences in other emerging countries.
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Author: Victor Zarnowitz
Author: Karl Heinrich Oppenländer
Author: Kajal Lahiri
Author: James H. Stock
Author: 
Author: Geoffrey H. Moore
Author: Mr.Vadim Khramov
Author: Michael Griffis
Author: Sergey Smirnov
Author: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Staff