Bilateral Equilibrium Exchange Rates of EU Accession Countries Against the Euro PDF Download

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN: 9789516869288
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 29

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Author: Jörg Rahn
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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We apply BEER and PEER approaches to calculate real equilibrium exchange rates for five EU accession countries in central and east Europe. Bilateral nominal equilibrium exchange rates against the euro are obtained through algebraic transformation of the results. Panel cointegration techniques are used to check the adequacy of the empirical model. The results reveal substantial overvaluations of the real exchange rate in several EU accession countries. Overvaluation is even higher when these exchange rates are expressed in nominal terms against the euro.

Author: Isabell Koske
Publisher: Peter Lang Gmbh, Internationaler Verlag Der Wissenschaften
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 212

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Since the launch of the euro in 1999, researchers, policy makers, and business analysts have put great interest in the evolution of the external value of the euro. In 2004 the European Monetary Union expanded its membership with the accession of ten countries from central and eastern Europe and the Mediterranean. As these countries are committed to adopt the euro as soon as they fulfill the Maastricht criteria, knowing their currencies' equilibrium value is of great policy interest. This study addresses these questions by deriving equilibrium exchange rate paths for the euro and for the currencies of the new EU member countries. Specifically, one part investigates in how far variations in seven bilateral nominal euro exchange rates can be explained by monetary factors and then estimates the equilibrium path of the real effective exchange rate of the euro based on the NATREX approach. The final chapters derive equilibrium exchange rate paths for the currencies of the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia, and the three Baltic countries using a small country version of the NATREX model.

Author: Jörg Rahn
Publisher: Peter Lang Publishing
ISBN:
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 204

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The upcoming enlargement of the European Monetary Union involves the selection of appropriate reference rates at which the exchange rates of the accession countries will be fixed against the euro in order to avoid economic distortions as consequences of serious exchange rate misalignments. Determination of an exchange rate that is neither undervalued nor overvalued raises the issue of equilibrium exchange rates. Based on time series as well as panel estimation techniques three different concepts - BEER, PEER and PPP - are applied in this study to calculate equilibrium exchange rate levels for ten Central and Eastern European countries. The results indicate significant real misalignments in a number of accession countries.

Author: Mr.Angel J. Ubide
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451858736
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 44

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This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.

Author: Richard E. Baldwin
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475734077
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 281

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As part of its EU strategy, the Swiss government commissioned several research projects covering the most important aspects of economic integration. Given the interesting results and the wealth of methods used in these studies we decided to organize a conference on the topic of 'The Economic Impact of EU Membership on Entrants: New Methods and Issues". The idea was to use the work on Switzerland as a case study for discussing modern approaches on how to assess the economic effects of joining an integration zone. This seemed to us to be a topic of considerable interest for the rising number of prospective EU-member countries. The response was very favourable with many eminent scholars agreeing to contribute. The conference took place in Lausanne, Switzerland in October 1999 and the papers submitted together with the discussions are published in this volume. We would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs and to thank the University of Lausanne for providing the venue facilities for the conference. Many persons helped in the preparation of the conference and this volume but we would like to especially mention Marc Surchat who provided substantial input for the conference and Walter Brodmann who very efficiently reviewed and finalized the manuscript. The Editors RICHARD E. BALDWIN AND A YMO BRUNETTI THE ECONOMIC IMPACT OF EU MEMBERSHIP ON ENTRANTS: NEW METHODS AND ISSUES INTRODUCTION What a transformation Europe has witnessed in the past 15 years.

Author: Enrique Alberola
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 43

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Book Description
This paper presents a methodology for calculating bilateral equilibrium exchange rates for a panel of currencies in a way that guarantees global consistency. The methodology has three parts: a theoretical model that encompasses the balance of payments and the Balassa-Samuelson approaches to real exchange rate determination; an unobserved components decomposition in a cointegration framework that identifies a time-varying equilibrium real exchange rate; and an algebraic transformation that extracts bilateral equilibrium nominal rates. The results uncover that, by the start of Stage III of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), the euro was significantly undervalued against the dollar and the pound, but overvalued against the yen. The paper also shows that the four major EMU currencies locked their parities with the euro at a rate close to equilibrium.

Author: A. Deardorff
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 0230522866
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 240

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This volume collects selected papers on the European Union from the 13th Congress of the International Economic Association held in Lisbon, September 2002. It starts with an address by Romano Prodi, President of the European Commission, who sets the tone for the other papers by describing and evaluating two of the greatest accomplishments of the EU: economic and monetary union, and EU enlargement. Other authors deal in detail with various aspects of these and other issues, using a mixture of theoretical, empirical, and other tools.

Author: Jarko Fidrmuc
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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A panel data set for six Central and Eastern European countries (the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia) is used to estimate the monetary exchange rate model with panel cointegration methods, including the Pooled Mean Group estimator, the Fully Modified Least Square estimator and the Dynamic Least Square estimator. The monetary model is able to convincingly explain the long-run dynamics of exchange rates in CEECs, particularly when this is supplemented by a Balassa-Samuelson effect. We then use our long-run monetary estimates to compute equilibrium exchange rates. Finally, we discuss the implications for the accession of selected countries to the European Economic and Monetary Union.

Author: Fabrizio Coricelli
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Countries of central eastern Europe which are candidates for accession to the European Union face fundamental challenges in the conduct of macroeconomic policies. These countries are characterized by growth rates faster than those of EU countries, along with large current account deficits and an equilibrium appreciation of the real exchange rate. In such a context, an early adoption of the euro may be beneficial to central eastern European countries, while the ERM-II system and the Maastricht criterion on inflation may give rise to serious drawbacks for candidate countries.