Bias and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts PDF Download
Are you looking for read ebook online? Search for your book and save it on your Kindle device, PC, phones or tablets. Download Bias and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts PDF full book. Access full book title Bias and Accuracy of Management Earnings Forecasts by Bruce J. McConomy. Download full books in PDF and EPUB format.
Author: Bruce J. McConomy Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper assesses how the bias and accuracy of managers' earnings forecasts in prospectuses were affected by a 1989 regulation that required the forecasts to be audited by public accountants. Theory suggests that auditors' association with the forecasts would reduce positive (optimistic) bias, by reducing moral hazard. Regulators expected that the audit requirement would also improve the accuracy of the forecasts. Both predictions were tested using management earnings forecasts disclosed in prospectuses of Canadian initial public offerings. The results show that audited forecasts contained significantly less positive bias than reviewed forecasts, but there was only a marginally significant improvement in accuracy.Key Words: Initial public offering; Bias; Earnings forecast.
Author: Bruce J. McConomy Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper assesses how the bias and accuracy of managers' earnings forecasts in prospectuses were affected by a 1989 regulation that required the forecasts to be audited by public accountants. Theory suggests that auditors' association with the forecasts would reduce positive (optimistic) bias, by reducing moral hazard. Regulators expected that the audit requirement would also improve the accuracy of the forecasts. Both predictions were tested using management earnings forecasts disclosed in prospectuses of Canadian initial public offerings. The results show that audited forecasts contained significantly less positive bias than reviewed forecasts, but there was only a marginally significant improvement in accuracy.Key Words: Initial public offering; Bias; Earnings forecast.
Author: Afshad J. Irani Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 40
Book Description
This study investigates the effect of proprietary information, disclosure-related legal liability, earnings variability, financial distress, and external financing on bias in management earnings forecasts. Bias, specifically ex post bias (as is referred to in the management forecast literature), exists if the expected value of the observed management earnings forecasts differs from actual earnings. The effect of the test variables on ex post bias is investigated by examining whether a firm's forecast error (measure of ex post bias and defined as actual earnings minus management earnings forecast) is a function of the aforementioned variables. Proprietary information, disclosure-related legal liability, and earnings variability are hypothesized to be positively associated with ex post bias, while external financing and financial distress are expected to be negatively correlated. All the independent variables are measured using public information available at the time that the financial statements are released.Using a sample of 267 management earnings forecasts released during the period 1990-95 in the first three quarters of the fiscal year, I find that these forecasts are on average optimistic. Results from the multivariate regression analysis find that three of the five factors, proprietary information, financial distress and earnings variability, are significant in explaining ex post bias. For the most part, these findings are robust across various sub-samples.
Author: Bin Ke Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 63
Book Description
This study offers evidence on the earnings forecast bias analysts use to please firm management and the associated benefits they obtain from issuing such biased forecasts in the years prior to Regulation Fair Disclosure. Analysts who issue initial optimistic earnings forecasts followed by pessimistic earnings forecasts before the earnings announcement produce more accurate earnings forecasts and are less likely to be fired by their employers. The effect of such biased earnings forecasts on forecast accuracy and firing is stronger for analysts who follow firms with heavy insider selling and hard-to-predict earnings. The above results hold regardless of whether a brokerage firm has investment banking business or not. These results are consistent with the hypothesis that analysts use biased earnings forecasts to curry favor with firm management in order to obtain better access to management's private information.
Author: Andrew A. Anabila Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 12
Book Description
The safe harbor provisions have increased over the years, following the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act (PSLRA) of 1996 and the Securities Litigation Uniform Standards Act (SLUSA) of 1998. The objective is to encourage more earnings guidance by managers. However, a number of firms like Coca Cola and Gillette moved to abandon quantitative earnings forecasts, due to concerns over the markets' response when they miss their forecasts. This study examines the determinants of management earnings forecasts bias and inaccuracy. The evidence suggests that forecast bias and inaccuracy are not systematically associated with diversification however, are associated with the fraction of nonoperating assets. Also, capital structure, audit quality and institutional holdings are systematic determinants of forecast bias and inaccuracy. Finally, industry attributes of munificence, dynamism and concentration are indicators of inherent imperfections of management forecasts, but are exogenous to management's control. The reasons for, and implications of these findings are discussed.
Author: Stan Beckers Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
Forecasting company earnings is a difficult and hazardous task. In an efficient market where analysts learn from past mistakes, there should be no persistent and systematic biases in consensus earnings accuracy. Previous research has already established how some (single) individual-company characteristics systematically influence forecast accuracy. So far, however, the effect on consensus earnings biases of a company's sector and country affiliation combined with a range of other fundamental characteristics has remained largely unexplored. Using data for 1993-2002, this article disentangles and quantifies for a broad universe of European stocks how the number of analysts following a stock, the dispersion of their forecasts, the volatility of earnings, the sector and country classification of the covered company, and its market capitalization influence the accuracy of the consensus earnings forecast.
Author: Helen Hurwitz Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 35
Book Description
This study investigates whether investor sentiment is associated with behavioral bias in managers' annual earnings forecasts that are generally issued early in the year when uncertainty is relatively high. I provide evidence that management earnings forecast optimism increases with investor sentiment. Furthermore, I find that managers' annual earnings forecasts are more pessimistic during low-sentiment periods than during normal-sentiment periods. Since managers lack incentives to further deflate stock prices during a low-sentiment period, this evidence indicates that sentiment-related management earnings forecast bias is likely to be unintentional. In addition, I find that the relation between management earnings forecast bias and investor sentiment is stronger for firms with higher uncertainty, consistent with investor sentiment having a greater influence on management earnings forecasts when uncertainty is higher.
Author: Bruce J. McConomy
Author: Bruce J. MacConomy
Author: Bruce J. McConomy
Author: Bruce Joseph MacConomy
Author: Jong-Hag Choi
Author: Afshad J. Irani
Author: Bin Ke
Author: Andrew A. Anabila
Author: Stan Beckers
Author: K. Keasey
Author: Helen Hurwitz