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Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498344453 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498344453 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 50
Book Description
Balance sheets convey vital information about economic prospects and risks. Balance sheet analysis captures the role that financial frictions and mismatches play in creating fragility and amplifying shocks. This is key to understanding the macroeconomic outlook, identifying vulnerabilities, and tracing the transmission of potential shocks and policies. This paper reviews the use of balance sheet analysis in the Fund’s bilateral surveillance and introduces some practical examples of how it can be deepened. Recent evaluations of IMF surveillance––including the 2014 TSR––have emphasized the importance of strengthening balance sheet analysis and coverage of macro-financial issues. This paper is a first step that highlights useful examples of such analysis conducted by staff over the last decade, documents the data and tools that have been used, and mentions some limitations. In addition, it discusses recent improvements in the coverage and quality of balance sheet data through initiatives launched in the wake of the global crisis, as well as key remaining gaps, addressing which requires international collaboration.
Author: Mr.Johan Mathisen Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1589066049 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 46
Book Description
A distinguishing feature of emerging market crises in recent years has been the sudden disruption in the capital accounts of the economy. These crises have highlighted the need for closer attention to macroeconomic vulnerabilities in sectoral balance sheets. This book enhances application of the balance sheet approach to surveillance by taking advantage of new data sets that provide detailed, frequent, and timely financial statistics.
Author: Mr.Johan Mathisen Publisher: INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND ISBN: 9781451863604 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
Recent improvements in statistical methodologies and data availability are facilitating detailed, high-frequency, timely macroeconomic balance sheet analysis. This paper provides practical instruction on how to design the framework to analyze vulnerabilities in a country as well as an overview of data sources that can be employed for this analysis. The paper also discusses how these new datasets are enhancing surveillance activities related to balance sheet vulnerabilities.
Author: Marco A Espinosa-Vega Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455200646 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 29
Book Description
Effective cross-border financial surveillance requires the monitoring of direct and indirect systemic linkages. This paper illustrates how network analysis could make a significant contribution in this regard by simulating different credit and funding shocks to the banking systems of a number of selected countries. After that, we show that the inclusion of risk transfers could modify the risk profile of entire financial systems, and thus an enriched simulation algorithm able to account for risk transfers is proposed. Finally, we discuss how some of the limitations of our simulations are a reflection of existing information and data gaps, and thus view these shortcomings as a call to improve the collection and analysis of data on cross-border financial exposures.
Author: Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1455200662 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 27
Book Description
The 2008/9 financial crisis highlighted the importance of evaluating vulnerabilities owing to interconnectedness, or Too-Connected-to-Fail risk, among financial institutions for country monitoring, financial surveillance, investment analysis and risk management purposes. This paper illustrates the use of balance sheet-based network analysis to evaluate interconnectedness risk, under extreme adverse scenarios, in banking systems in mature and emerging market countries, and between individual banks in Chile, an advanced emerging market economy.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498347037 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 44
Book Description
The Fund has made good progress over the past two years in integrating macrofinancial analysis into Article IV surveillance for a wide range of members. Building on past work to enhance financial sector analysis, Fund staff has sought to develop a consistent and forward-looking view on how the financial sector affects each member’s economic outlook with the aim of strengthening staff’s capacity to provide advice on macro-critical questions. The focus has been on developing a fuller understanding of macrofinancial linkages, and applying this analysis to inform policy advice. Staff has sought to articulate the role of the financial sector in the macroeconomic baseline, and to integrate the financial sector into the risk assessment, taking into account both the impact of macro shocks on the financial sector as well as the effect of financial shocks on macroeconomic stability. Strengthening the analytical foundations of this work has helped staff provide advice in all policy areas, including financial sector policies. Staff has tailored macrofinancial analysis to the circumstances of a diverse set of economies. Area departments have taken the lead in selecting 66 economies for enhanced macrofinancial coverage and in identifying topics, drawing on targeted support from functional departments. The choice of coverage has included legacies from the global financial crisis—such as deleveraging and stretched balance sheets in advanced economies and some emerging markets—and more recent challenges such as commodity price shocks, especially in low income countries, and the risks of housing booms. The financial sector’s contribution to growth and inclusion has become an important question in countries across all income groups. Staff sees benefits in mainstreaming this approach across the membership, while continuing to address analytical gaps and adapting to new challenges. The work of the past two years has underscored the criticality of macrofinancial analysis for a diverse range of members, and laid the basis for progressively mainstreaming macrofinancial surveillance across the membership. Building on this progress, staff sees scope for the Fund to deepen its understanding of the macroeconomic effects of financial shocks, to better adapt microprudential and macroprudential policy advice with an assessment of macro-critical risks including systemic risk, and to deepen the analysis of outward spillovers. Staff will also need to continue to adapt the focus of analysis and tools, and seek relevant data, as economic challenges evolve.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498339956 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 47
Book Description
The IMF keeps data provision by members under periodic review since timely, accurate, and comprehensive data are essential for fulfilling its surveillance mandate. The previous Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes was discussed by the Executive Board in March 2008 (the 2008 Review). The 2008 Review introduced a new classification system for rating the adequacy of data provision by a member to help with this assessment. The present review was expected to be conducted in 2013, but was brought forward to 2012 in the context of the ongoing global crisis. In particular, the Managing Director’s (MD) statement on the 2011 Triennial Surveillance Review (TSR) announced that the Review of Data Provision to the Fund for Surveillance Purposes would be brought forward to 2012 to allow the Board to consider where more and better data could be leveraged to enhance surveillance.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept. Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498330150 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 225
Author: International Monetary Fund Publisher: International Monetary Fund ISBN: 1498344844 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 57
Book Description
This note provides country teams with guidance on bilateral and multilateral surveillance in the context of Article IV consultations. It covers the following issues: Focus on stability. Stability is the organizing principle of surveillance. Article IV consultations should focus on the conduct of economic and financial policies pursued by members to promote present and prospective domestic and balance of payments stability, as well as global economic and financial stability. For the latter, Article IV consultations should discuss spillovers from members’ economic and financial policies that may significantly affect global stability, including alternative policy options that would minimize their adverse impact. Operational guidance. The note provides detailed guidance, suggestions and references in areas covered in surveillance including risks and spillovers, fiscal policy, macrofinancial and monetary policy, BOP stability, structural policies and data issues. Communication and Engagement. Effective two-way communication is key to surveillance, including with the authorities (to help staff’s advice get traction), the Executive Board (to support effective peer review), and the public and other stakeholders (to gain support for necessary policy adjustments). Surveillance messages need to be clear, concise, and focused. The Fund needs to be evenhanded, in line with the principle of uniformity of treatment, for surveillance to command the confidence of the membership. Process and formal requirements. A number of procedures, rules, and requirements are summarized in this note.
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: Mr.Johan Mathisen
Author: Mr.Johan Mathisen
Author: Marco A Espinosa-Vega
Author: Mr.Jorge A. Chan-Lau
Author: International Monetary Fund. Strategy, Policy, & Review Department
Author: International Monetary Fund
Author: International Monetary Fund. Statistics Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund. Research Dept.
Author: International Monetary Fund