Backward Simulation Methods for Monte Carlo Statistical Inference PDF Download

Author: Fredrik Lindsten
Publisher:
ISBN: 9781601986993
Category : Digital computer simulation
Languages : en
Pages : 145

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Book Description
Backward Simulation Methods for Monte Carlo Statistical Inference presents and discusses various backward simulation methods for Monte Carlo statistical inference. The focus is on SMC-based backward simulators, which are useful for inference in analytically intractable models, such as nonlinear and/or non-Gaussian SSMs, but also in more general latent variable models.

Author: Johan Dahlin
Publisher: Linköping University Electronic Press
ISBN: 9176857972
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 139

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Book Description
Making decisions and predictions from noisy observations are two important and challenging problems in many areas of society. Some examples of applications are recommendation systems for online shopping and streaming services, connecting genes with certain diseases and modelling climate change. In this thesis, we make use of Bayesian statistics to construct probabilistic models given prior information and historical data, which can be used for decision support and predictions. The main obstacle with this approach is that it often results in mathematical problems lacking analytical solutions. To cope with this, we make use of statistical simulation algorithms known as Monte Carlo methods to approximate the intractable solution. These methods enjoy well-understood statistical properties but are often computational prohibitive to employ. The main contribution of this thesis is the exploration of different strategies for accelerating inference methods based on sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). That is, strategies for reducing the computational effort while keeping or improving the accuracy. A major part of the thesis is devoted to proposing such strategies for the MCMC method known as the particle Metropolis-Hastings (PMH) algorithm. We investigate two strategies: (i) introducing estimates of the gradient and Hessian of the target to better tailor the algorithm to the problem and (ii) introducing a positive correlation between the point-wise estimates of the target. Furthermore, we propose an algorithm based on the combination of SMC and Gaussian process optimisation, which can provide reasonable estimates of the posterior but with a significant decrease in computational effort compared with PMH. Moreover, we explore the use of sparseness priors for approximate inference in over-parametrised mixed effects models and autoregressive processes. This can potentially be a practical strategy for inference in the big data era. Finally, we propose a general method for increasing the accuracy of the parameter estimates in non-linear state space models by applying a designed input signal. Borde Riksbanken höja eller sänka reporäntan vid sitt nästa möte för att nå inflationsmålet? Vilka gener är förknippade med en viss sjukdom? Hur kan Netflix och Spotify veta vilka filmer och vilken musik som jag vill lyssna på härnäst? Dessa tre problem är exempel på frågor där statistiska modeller kan vara användbara för att ge hjälp och underlag för beslut. Statistiska modeller kombinerar teoretisk kunskap om exempelvis det svenska ekonomiska systemet med historisk data för att ge prognoser av framtida skeenden. Dessa prognoser kan sedan användas för att utvärdera exempelvis vad som skulle hända med inflationen i Sverige om arbetslösheten sjunker eller hur värdet på mitt pensionssparande förändras när Stockholmsbörsen rasar. Tillämpningar som dessa och många andra gör statistiska modeller viktiga för många delar av samhället. Ett sätt att ta fram statistiska modeller bygger på att kontinuerligt uppdatera en modell allteftersom mer information samlas in. Detta angreppssätt kallas för Bayesiansk statistik och är särskilt användbart när man sedan tidigare har bra insikter i modellen eller tillgång till endast lite historisk data för att bygga modellen. En nackdel med Bayesiansk statistik är att de beräkningar som krävs för att uppdatera modellen med den nya informationen ofta är mycket komplicerade. I sådana situationer kan man istället simulera utfallet från miljontals varianter av modellen och sedan jämföra dessa mot de historiska observationerna som finns till hands. Man kan sedan medelvärdesbilda över de varianter som gav bäst resultat för att på så sätt ta fram en slutlig modell. Det kan därför ibland ta dagar eller veckor för att ta fram en modell. Problemet blir särskilt stort när man använder mer avancerade modeller som skulle kunna ge bättre prognoser men som tar för lång tid för att bygga. I denna avhandling använder vi ett antal olika strategier för att underlätta eller förbättra dessa simuleringar. Vi föreslår exempelvis att ta hänsyn till fler insikter om systemet och därmed minska antalet varianter av modellen som behöver undersökas. Vi kan således redan utesluta vissa modeller eftersom vi har en bra uppfattning om ungefär hur en bra modell ska se ut. Vi kan också förändra simuleringen så att den enklare rör sig mellan olika typer av modeller. På detta sätt utforskas rymden av alla möjliga modeller på ett mer effektivt sätt. Vi föreslår ett antal olika kombinationer och förändringar av befintliga metoder för att snabba upp anpassningen av modellen till observationerna. Vi visar att beräkningstiden i vissa fall kan minska ifrån några dagar till någon timme. Förhoppningsvis kommer detta i framtiden leda till att man i praktiken kan använda mer avancerade modeller som i sin tur resulterar i bättre prognoser och beslut.

Author: Christopher Z. Mooney
Publisher: SAGE
ISBN: 9780803959439
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 116

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Book Description
Aimed at researchers across the social sciences, this book explains the logic behind the Monte Carlo simulation method and demonstrates its uses for social and behavioural research.

Author: Randal Douc
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 1466502258
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 554

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Book Description
Designed for researchers and students, Nonlinear Times Series: Theory, Methods and Applications with R Examples familiarizes readers with the principles behind nonlinear time series models—without overwhelming them with difficult mathematical developments. By focusing on basic principles and theory, the authors give readers the background required to craft their own stochastic models, numerical methods, and software. They will also be able to assess the advantages and disadvantages of different approaches, and thus be able to choose the right methods for their purposes. The first part can be seen as a crash course on "classical" time series, with a special emphasis on linear state space models and detailed coverage of random coefficient autoregressions, both ARCH and GARCH models. The second part introduces Markov chains, discussing stability, the existence of a stationary distribution, ergodicity, limit theorems, and statistical inference. The book concludes with a self-contained account on nonlinear state space and sequential Monte Carlo methods. An elementary introduction to nonlinear state space modeling and sequential Monte Carlo, this section touches on current topics, from the theory of statistical inference to advanced computational methods. The book can be used as a support to an advanced course on these methods, or an introduction to this field before studying more specialized texts. Several chapters highlight recent developments such as explicit rate of convergence of Markov chains and sequential Monte Carlo techniques. And while the chapters are organized in a logical progression, the three parts can be studied independently. Statistics is not a spectator sport, so the book contains more than 200 exercises to challenge readers. These problems strengthen intellectual muscles strained by the introduction of new theory and go on to extend the theory in significant ways. The book helps readers hone their skills in nonlinear time series analysis and their applications.

Author: Simo Särkkä
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1108926649
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 437

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Book Description
A Bayesian treatment of the state-of-the-art filtering, smoothing, and parameter estimation algorithms for non-linear state space models.

Author: Arnaud Doucet
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475734379
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 590

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Book Description
Monte Carlo methods are revolutionizing the on-line analysis of data in many fileds. They have made it possible to solve numerically many complex, non-standard problems that were previously intractable. This book presents the first comprehensive treatment of these techniques.

Author: Jesper Moller
Publisher: CRC Press
ISBN: 9780203496930
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 320

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Book Description
Spatial point processes play a fundamental role in spatial statistics and today they are an active area of research with many new applications. Although other published works address different aspects of spatial point processes, most of the classical literature deals only with nonparametric methods, and a thorough treatment of the theory and applications of simulation-based inference is difficult to find. Written by researchers at the top of the field, this book collects and unifies recent theoretical advances and examples of applications. The authors examine Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and explore one of the most important recent developments in MCMC: perfect simulation procedures.

Author: Olivier Cappé
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 0387289828
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 656

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Book Description
This book is a comprehensive treatment of inference for hidden Markov models, including both algorithms and statistical theory. Topics range from filtering and smoothing of the hidden Markov chain to parameter estimation, Bayesian methods and estimation of the number of states. In a unified way the book covers both models with finite state spaces and models with continuous state spaces (also called state-space models) requiring approximate simulation-based algorithms that are also described in detail. Many examples illustrate the algorithms and theory. This book builds on recent developments to present a self-contained view.

Author: Neal Noah Madras
Publisher: American Mathematical Soc.
ISBN: 9780821871324
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 246

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Book Description
This volume contains the proceedings of the Workshop on Monte Carlo Methods held at The Fields Institute for Research in Mathematical Sciences (Toronto, 1998). The workshop brought together researchers in physics, statistics, and probability. The papers in this volume - of the invited speakers and contributors to the poster session - represent the interdisciplinary emphasis of the conference. Monte Carlo methods have been used intensively in many branches of scientific inquiry. Markov chain methods have been at the forefront of much of this work, serving as the basis of many numerical studies in statistical physics and related areas since the Metropolis algorithm was introduced in 1953. Statisticians and theoretical computer scientists have used these methods in recent years, working on different fundamental research questions, yet using similar Monte Carlo methodology. This volume focuses on Monte Carlo methods that appear to have wide applicability and emphasizes new methods, practical applications and theoretical analysis. It will be of interest to researchers and graduate students who study and/or use Monte Carlo methods in areas of probability, statistics, theoretical physics, or computer science.

Author: Pijush Samui
Publisher: Butterworth-Heinemann
ISBN: 0128165464
Category : Computers
Languages : en
Pages : 592

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Book Description
Handbook of Probabilistic Models carefully examines the application of advanced probabilistic models in conventional engineering fields. In this comprehensive handbook, practitioners, researchers and scientists will find detailed explanations of technical concepts, applications of the proposed methods, and the respective scientific approaches needed to solve the problem. This book provides an interdisciplinary approach that creates advanced probabilistic models for engineering fields, ranging from conventional fields of mechanical engineering and civil engineering, to electronics, electrical, earth sciences, climate, agriculture, water resource, mathematical sciences and computer sciences. Specific topics covered include minimax probability machine regression, stochastic finite element method, relevance vector machine, logistic regression, Monte Carlo simulations, random matrix, Gaussian process regression, Kalman filter, stochastic optimization, maximum likelihood, Bayesian inference, Bayesian update, kriging, copula-statistical models, and more. - Explains the application of advanced probabilistic models encompassing multidisciplinary research - Applies probabilistic modeling to emerging areas in engineering - Provides an interdisciplinary approach to probabilistic models and their applications, thus solving a wide range of practical problems