Avoiding Losses/taking Risks PDF Download

Author: Barbara Farnham
Publisher: University of Michigan Press
ISBN: 9780472082766
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 180

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Book Description
The impact of prospect theory on international relations theory

Author: Barbara Reardon Farnham
Publisher: Princeton University Press
ISBN: 0691227519
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 327

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Book Description
Franklin Roosevelt's intentions during the three years between Munich and Pearl Harbor have been a source of controversy among historians for decades. Barbara Farnham offers both a theory of how the domestic political context affects foreign policy decisions in general and a fresh interpretation of FDR's post-Munich policies based on the insights that the theory provides. Between 1936 and 1938, Roosevelt searched for ways to influence the deteriorating international situation. When Hitler's behavior during the Munich crisis showed him to be incorrigibly aggressive, FDR settled on aiding the democracies, a course to which he adhered until America's entry into the war. This policy attracted him because it allowed him to deal with a serious problem: the conflict between the need to stop Hitler and the domestic imperative to avoid any risk of American involvement in a war. Because existing theoretical approaches to value conflict ignore the influence of political factors on decision-making, they offer little help in explaining Roosevelt's behavior. As an alternative, this book develops a political approach to decision-making which focuses on the impact that awareness of the imperatives of the political context can have on decision-making processes and, through them, policy outcomes. It suggests that in the face of a clash of central values decision-makers who are aware of the demands of the political context are likely to be reluctant to make trade-offs, seeking instead a solution that gives some measure of satisfaction to all the values implicated in the decision.

Author: R. Greg Brown
Publisher: Page Publishing Inc
ISBN: 1644248832
Category : Social Science
Languages : en
Pages : 191

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Book Description
America repeatedly finds itself mired in military interventions long after public buy-in to the national interest has waned. Why is the timely disengagement of military forces so difficult to achieve? Traditional international relations theories diminish the role of the individual leader in favor of the state or international institutions. Behavioral science theories have in recent years experienced a resurgence. However, the dominant behavioral explanation of foreign policy decision-making, prospect theory, while it focuses on how people tend to make decisions under risk, still minimizes the influence of the individual president. Decisions to disengage military forces are presidential decisions, just like the decisions to commit forces to foreign interventions. If we accept this, then it is important to understand if, and if so why, some presidents inherently are more or less acceptant of the risks disengagement presents. This book operationalizes a competing personality-based model of decision-making under risk. Referred to here as the trait-based model, it is assessed using disengagement opportunities in three varied levels of military intervention across four presidencies: humanitarian relief turned nation-building under George H. W. Bush and Bill Clinton in Somalia, compellent air campaigns turned peace-making/keeping in Bosnia and Kosovo under Clinton, and major combat operations turned irregular warfare in Iraq under George W. Bush and Barack Obama. Data for the model predominantly comes from existing presidential personality profiles based on the dominant model of personality theory, the five-factor model, augmented by Myers-Briggs Type Inventory data from public sources. This study aims to explain the roughly 30 percent of cases which defy prospect theory's predictions and to better explain those cases where prospect theory might heretofore have sufficed. The results suggest specific personality traits do in fact point to presidents' predispositions toward risk, which in turn help explain their disengagement decisions. This work may be only the second to apply the five-factor model to presidential foreign policy decision-making and is the first to do so in the context of disengagement decisions. Hopefully it will foster further work in both areas.

Author: Doug Sundheim
Publisher: McGraw Hill Professional
ISBN: 0071778209
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 273

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Book Description
In today’s market, playing it safe is not an option Lead your company to sustainable success by taking the RIGHT RISKS The business world is in flux, and you have to think and act quickly in order to stay competitive. But the last thing you want to do is make reckless business decisions. You have to find the middle ground. You have to take SMART RISKS. In this groundbreaking book, leadership expert Doug Sundheim explains how to find that precise point between comfort and danger for generating the sustained ability to work at the highest level of performance. Taking Smart Risks reveals the secrets to discovering, planning for, and acting upon the kind of risks that will move your company forward and ahead of the competition. Learn how to: Find Something Worth Fighting For—What do you care enough about to risk time, energy, and money to try to make happen? Determining this is half the battle. See the Future Now—Clarify your big idea in terms of real objectives, plans, and intended results. Act Fast, Learn Fast—Make your move quickly, but be sure you don’t squander valuable resources in the process. Communicate Powerfully—Assume communication will break down at points, plan accordingly—and don’t shy away from the tough conversations. Create a Smart Risk Culture— Build teams that share the same mindsets and values about expected smart risk behavior. Applying Sundheim’s advice will help you let go of old assumptions, explore new possibilities, move your organization out of its comfort zone, and experience long-term success. When you take smart risks, you will create. You will innovate. You will grow. And you will WIN. “From Sherwin Williams to Moo.com, Doug Sundheim is onto something here: your work is worth fighting for. A worthy read for everyone in your organization.” —Seth Godin, Author, The Icarus Deception “The risk-taking concepts in this book lie at the heart of effective leadership. Using case studies and stories from executives who have ‘been there, done that,’ Doug Sundheim teaches us that sometimes the most dangerous thing to do—in business and life—is to play it safe.” —Marshall Goldsmith, million-selling author of the New York Times bestsellers MOJO and What Got You Here Won’t Get You There “Sundheim delivers a message that every business needs to hear right now: excessive risk will kill you, but so will complacency. . . . If you’re charged with driving growth in your organization, buy this book—but more importantly, use it.” —Jed Hartman, Group Publisher, Fortune & CNNMoney.com “A spectacular book! The stories were powerful, the advice was crystal clear, and every few pages called me to action. I have bookmarked more pages in Taking Smart Risks than I have in any book since reading Peter Drucker’s classics.” —Michael Hejtmanek, President & CEO, Hasselblad Bron Inc. “Doug Sundheim does an excellent job of demonstrating not only how to take smart risks, but also how to lead the process of risk-taking—a critical skill set for leaders today.” —Cindy Zollinger, President & CEO, Cornerstone Research “A compelling case for why smart risk taking is so important in today’s fast-paced, uncertain world.” —Willie Pietersen, Professor, Columbia Business School; former CEO, Tropicana and Seagram USA

Author: Terry L. Deibel
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107469694
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 11

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Book Description
This is a book on how to think - strategically - about foreign policy. Focusing on American foreign policy, this book discusses the national interest as a concept in strategic logic and describes how to select objectives that will take advantage of opportunities to promote interests, while protecting them against threats. It also discusses national power and influence, as well as the political, informational, economic, and military instruments of state power. Based on a graphic model that illustrates strategic logic, the book uses examples from recent American statecraft. It ends with an extended critique of American foreign policy and a detailed outline of an alternative strategy that is better suited to the problems of the 21st century.

Author: Kai He
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107141982
Category : History
Languages : en
Pages : 185

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Book Description
The first study to systematically analyze the patterns of China's foreign policy crisis behavior after the Cold War.

Author: David Hess
Publisher: Edward Elgar Publishing
ISBN: 1035314703
Category : Law
Languages : en
Pages : 149

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Book Description
Providing a clear overview of compliance programs, David Hess explores not only their key features and how to implement them, but also the public policy issues related to their use in criminal and regulatory law enforcement. Hess uses research on behavioral ethics and organizational behavior to present insights into the implementation of compliance program elements and how to establish an ethical corporate culture.

Author: Greg Cashman
Publisher: Rowman & Littlefield Publishers
ISBN: 0742566528
Category : Political Science
Languages : en
Pages : 621

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Book Description
Now in a thoroughly revised and updated edition, this classic text presents a comprehensive survey of the many alternative theories that attempt to explain the causes of interstate war. For each theory, Greg Cashman examines the arguments and counterarguments, considers the empirical evidence and counterevidence generated by social-science research, looks at historical applications of the theory, and discusses the theory’s implications for restraining international violence. Among the questions he explores are: Are humans aggressive by nature? Do individual differences among leaders matter? How might poor decision making procedures lead to war? Why do leaders engage in seemingly risky and irrational policies that end in war? Why do states with internal conflicts seem to become entangled in wars with their neighbors? What roles do nationalism and ethnicity play in international conflict? What kinds of countries are most likely to become involved in war? Why have certain pairs of countries been particularly war-prone over the centuries? Can strong states deter war? Can we find any patterns in the way that war breaks out? How do balances of power or changes in balances of power make war more likely? Do social scientists currently have an answer to the question of what causes war? Cashman examines theories of war at the individual, substate, nation-state, dyadic, and international systems level of analysis. Written in a clear and accessible style, this interdisciplinary text will be essential reading for all students of international relations.

Author: Raymond Tanter
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISBN: 9780312217860
Category : Biography & Autobiography
Languages : en
Pages : 354

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Book Description
Explores U.S. foreign policy with regard to nations such as Iran, Iraq, Syria, and Libya, uncovering the reasons why these countries are so menacing to the United States.

Author: Jean-Paul Louisot
Publisher: Emerald Group Publishing
ISBN: 1836083947
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 254

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Book Description
Enterprise Risk Management in Today’s World examines enterprise risk management in its past, present and future, exploring the role that directors and leaders in organizations have in devising risk management strategies, analysing values such as trust, resilience, CSR and governance within organizations.