Attributing the Uncertainties of Anticipated Societal Impacts of a 1-in-100 Year Coastal Flood in Delaware at the End of the 21st Century PDF Download
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Author: Loonibha Manandhar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 72
Book Description
Estimating the projected exposure to sea level rise and coastal storm surge is important in developing risk mitigation and adaptation strategies. Scenario-based projections of exposure allow us to quantify and compare the uncertainty contributions from input components and identify the dominant drivers of exposure. Here, the uncertainty contributions from three sources - variations in projected socioeconomic processes, variations in projected sea level rise values, and the choice of method used to model the storm, are compared in estimating the projected societal exposure to a 1-in-100-year coastal storm at the end of this century in Delaware. Societal exposure is quantified in terms of projected population and urban land exposed to sea level rise and storm surge at the end of the 21st century. Using a variance-based Sobol's uncertainty analysis, the total uncertainty in the system was decomposed to the uncertainty contributions from each individual component and their interactions. Results show that variation in projected socioeconomic processes is the dominant source of uncertainty and is more influential than any other input component or interaction term in determining the projected societal exposure at the end of the 21st century. For estimating projected population exposure to sea level rise and storm surge in the Wilmington city area, socioeconomic processes are 2.1 times as influential as the interaction between socioeconomic processes and climate change (the second largest source of uncertainty) and around 6 times as influential as climate change alone (the third largest source of uncertainty). Similar results are found for projected urban land exposure where socioeconomic processes are around 1.4 times as influential as the interaction between socioeconomic processes and climate change and 2.7 times as influential as climate change alone. The influence of interactions between socioeconomic processes and climate change is large in magnitude and reduces rather than increases the overall uncertainty in projected societal exposure. Overall, the three largest sources of uncertainty contribute to over 89% and 84% of the total uncertainty in estimating projected population and urban land exposure respectively in the Wilmington city area and are key drivers of future societal impacts. The influence of differences among storm modeling methods is small. Results also show that, at the end of this century, up to 30,000 people and 22 km2 of urban land could be exposed to sea level rise and storm surge caused by a 1-in-100-year storm in the Wilmington City area, and across Delaware the exposure to sea level rise alone could be up to 60,000 people and 270 km2 of urban land.
Author: Loonibha Manandhar Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 72
Book Description
Estimating the projected exposure to sea level rise and coastal storm surge is important in developing risk mitigation and adaptation strategies. Scenario-based projections of exposure allow us to quantify and compare the uncertainty contributions from input components and identify the dominant drivers of exposure. Here, the uncertainty contributions from three sources - variations in projected socioeconomic processes, variations in projected sea level rise values, and the choice of method used to model the storm, are compared in estimating the projected societal exposure to a 1-in-100-year coastal storm at the end of this century in Delaware. Societal exposure is quantified in terms of projected population and urban land exposed to sea level rise and storm surge at the end of the 21st century. Using a variance-based Sobol's uncertainty analysis, the total uncertainty in the system was decomposed to the uncertainty contributions from each individual component and their interactions. Results show that variation in projected socioeconomic processes is the dominant source of uncertainty and is more influential than any other input component or interaction term in determining the projected societal exposure at the end of the 21st century. For estimating projected population exposure to sea level rise and storm surge in the Wilmington city area, socioeconomic processes are 2.1 times as influential as the interaction between socioeconomic processes and climate change (the second largest source of uncertainty) and around 6 times as influential as climate change alone (the third largest source of uncertainty). Similar results are found for projected urban land exposure where socioeconomic processes are around 1.4 times as influential as the interaction between socioeconomic processes and climate change and 2.7 times as influential as climate change alone. The influence of interactions between socioeconomic processes and climate change is large in magnitude and reduces rather than increases the overall uncertainty in projected societal exposure. Overall, the three largest sources of uncertainty contribute to over 89% and 84% of the total uncertainty in estimating projected population and urban land exposure respectively in the Wilmington city area and are key drivers of future societal impacts. The influence of differences among storm modeling methods is small. Results also show that, at the end of this century, up to 30,000 people and 22 km2 of urban land could be exposed to sea level rise and storm surge caused by a 1-in-100-year storm in the Wilmington City area, and across Delaware the exposure to sea level rise alone could be up to 60,000 people and 270 km2 of urban land.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 9781009157971 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 755
Book Description
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the leading international body for assessing the science related to climate change. It provides policymakers with regular assessments of the scientific basis of human-induced climate change, its impacts and future risks, and options for adaptation and mitigation. This IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate is the most comprehensive and up-to-date assessment of the observed and projected changes to the ocean and cryosphere and their associated impacts and risks, with a focus on resilience, risk management response options, and adaptation measures, considering both their potential and limitations. It brings together knowledge on physical and biogeochemical changes, the interplay with ecosystem changes, and the implications for human communities. It serves policymakers, decision makers, stakeholders, and all interested parties with unbiased, up-to-date, policy-relevant information. This title is also available as Open Access on Cambridge Core.
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Publisher: Cambridge University Press ISBN: 1107025060 Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 593
Book Description
Extreme weather and climate events, interacting with exposed and vulnerable human and natural systems, can lead to disasters. This Special Report explores the social as well as physical dimensions of weather- and climate-related disasters, considering opportunities for managing risks at local to international scales. SREX was approved and accepted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) on 18 November 2011 in Kampala, Uganda.
Author: Nathan R. VanArendonk Publisher: ISBN: Category : Climatic changes Languages : en Pages : 178
Book Description
Sea level rise (SLR) in the Salish Sea, a large inland waterway shared between Canada and the United States, is expected to be 0.3 to 1.8 m by the year 2100. Uncertainty in greenhouse gas emissions, global ice sheet loss, and other controls such as vertical land movement all contribute to this range. Valuable property, infrastructure, and critical habitats for shellfish and threatened salmon populations are at risk to coastal changes associated with SLR. Additionally, development in Washington State is expected to accelerate through the end of the 21st century adding extra pressure on protecting ecosystems and people from natural hazards along the coast. Global climate models (GCMs) predict increases in temperature and changes in precipitation, yet little is known about the impacts of climate change on the local wave climate. Understanding the dynamic interactions that SLR and climate change will have on the wave climate and coastal systems within the Salish Sea is vital for protecting these resources and planning for the future. In support of the Washington Coastal Resilience Project and the United States Geological Survey Coastal Change Impacts Project, I modeled historic and potential future waves in the Salish Sea to evaluate the extent that wave energy reaching the shore may change with 0.3, 0.6, and 0.91 m of SLR. I also assessed potential changes in future wind conditions that drive wave generation projected by the publicly available MACA (Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogs) downscaled NOAA GFDL-ESM2M (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth Systems Model) GCM. Lastly, I modeled wave runup to assess potential flood and wave impacts along the shore to the year 2100 as part of a case study in support of the City of Tacoma's climate adaptation planning for parks, sensitive habitats and significant commercial development along Ruston Way. his project generated the first regional wave model and historical hindcast within the Salish Sea to define the recurrence frequency of a range of extreme events and resolve their variability alongshore at spatial scales relevant for planning. Existing models of future climate indicate little change in extreme wind speeds, but potential changes in wind direction that could affect waves. Model results indicate that annual extreme deep water waves (-10 m NAVD88 depth) may increase up to 30 cm under 0.91 m of SLR with the greatest change occurring in shallow embayments and large river deltas where higher water levels will reduce depth limitation and influence fetch. Wave runup modeling along the demonstration site of Ruston Way in Tacoma, showed that extreme coastal water levels reaching and exceeding the Federal Emergency Management Agency 100-yr Base Flood Elevation (BFE) will significantly increase under 0.85 m of SLR, the 50% probabilistic estimate by 2100 for the city of Tacoma. While the dominant exposure of shorelines to flooding is along south-facing coasts, wave runup modeling elucidated that extreme water levels causing flooding are sensitive to waves and wind stress, especially important along north facing shorelines. Equally important is the finding that intermediate disturbances driving flooding will significantly increase in frequency with sea level rise; today's 10-yr recurrence storm event under 0.85 m of SLR was projected to exceed FEMA's 100-yr BFE across more than 50% of locations modeled along Ruston Way, suggesting that FEMA's BFE may be biased low for projected future sea level change. In the Salish Sea, SLR is expected to drive an increase in coastal flooding extent and frequency where waves amplify the impacts of higher static water levels and further elevate the water surface.
Author: Trevor Houser Publisher: Columbia University Press ISBN: 023153955X Category : Business & Economics Languages : en Pages : 381
Book Description
Climate change threatens the economy of the United States in myriad ways, including increased flooding and storm damage, altered crop yields, lost labor productivity, higher crime, reshaped public-health patterns, and strained energy systems, among many other effects. Combining the latest climate models, state-of-the-art econometric research on human responses to climate, and cutting-edge private-sector risk-assessment tools, Economic Risks of Climate Change: An American Prospectus crafts a game-changing profile of the economic risks of climate change in the United States. This prospectus is based on a critically acclaimed independent assessment of the economic risks posed by climate change commissioned by the Risky Business Project. With new contributions from Karen Fisher-Vanden, Michael Greenstone, Geoffrey Heal, Michael Oppenheimer, and Nicholas Stern and Bob Ward, as well as a foreword from Risky Business cochairs Michael Bloomberg, Henry Paulson, and Thomas Steyer, the book speaks to scientists, researchers, scholars, activists, and policy makers. It depicts the distribution of escalating climate-change risk across the country and assesses its effects on aspects of the economy as varied as hurricane damages and violent crime. Beautifully illustrated and accessibly written, this book is an essential tool for helping businesses and governments prepare for the future.
Author: Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 64
Book Description
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists is the premier public resource on scientific and technological developments that impact global security. Founded by Manhattan Project Scientists, the Bulletin's iconic "Doomsday Clock" stimulates solutions for a safer world.
Author: National Research Council Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309060982 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 161
Book Description
Society today may be more vulnerable to global-scale, long-term, climate change than ever before. Even without any human influence, past records show that climate can be expected to continue to undergo considerable change over decades to centuries. Measures for adaption and mitigation will call for policy decisions based on a sound scientific foundation. Better understanding and prediction of climate variations can be achieved most efficiently through a nationally recognized "dec-cen" science plan. This book articulates the scientific issues that must be addressed to advance us efficiently toward that understanding and outlines the data collection and modeling needed.
Author: David Wallace-Wells Publisher: Tim Duggan Books ISBN: 052557672X Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 384
Book Description
#1 NEW YORK TIMES BESTSELLER • “The Uninhabitable Earth hits you like a comet, with an overflow of insanely lyrical prose about our pending Armageddon.”—Andrew Solomon, author of The Noonday Demon NAMED ONE OF THE BEST BOOKS OF THE YEAR BY The New Yorker • The New York Times Book Review • Time • NPR • The Economist • The Paris Review • Toronto Star • GQ • The Times Literary Supplement • The New York Public Library • Kirkus Reviews It is worse, much worse, than you think. If your anxiety about global warming is dominated by fears of sea-level rise, you are barely scratching the surface of what terrors are possible—food shortages, refugee emergencies, climate wars and economic devastation. An “epoch-defining book” (The Guardian) and “this generation’s Silent Spring” (The Washington Post), The Uninhabitable Earth is both a travelogue of the near future and a meditation on how that future will look to those living through it—the ways that warming promises to transform global politics, the meaning of technology and nature in the modern world, the sustainability of capitalism and the trajectory of human progress. The Uninhabitable Earth is also an impassioned call to action. For just as the world was brought to the brink of catastrophe within the span of a lifetime, the responsibility to avoid it now belongs to a single generation—today’s. LONGLISTED FOR THE PEN/E.O. WILSON LITERARY SCIENCE WRITING AWARD “The Uninhabitable Earth is the most terrifying book I have ever read. Its subject is climate change, and its method is scientific, but its mode is Old Testament. The book is a meticulously documented, white-knuckled tour through the cascading catastrophes that will soon engulf our warming planet.”—Farhad Manjoo, The New York Times “Riveting. . . . Some readers will find Mr. Wallace-Wells’s outline of possible futures alarmist. He is indeed alarmed. You should be, too.”—The Economist “Potent and evocative. . . . Wallace-Wells has resolved to offer something other than the standard narrative of climate change. . . . He avoids the ‘eerily banal language of climatology’ in favor of lush, rolling prose.”—Jennifer Szalai, The New York Times “The book has potential to be this generation’s Silent Spring.”—The Washington Post “The Uninhabitable Earth, which has become a best seller, taps into the underlying emotion of the day: fear. . . . I encourage people to read this book.”—Alan Weisman, The New York Review of Books
Author: National Academies Publisher: National Academies Press ISBN: 0309261503 Category : Science Languages : en Pages : 216
Book Description
No person or place is immune from disasters or disaster-related losses. Infectious disease outbreaks, acts of terrorism, social unrest, or financial disasters in addition to natural hazards can all lead to large-scale consequences for the nation and its communities. Communities and the nation thus face difficult fiscal, social, cultural, and environmental choices about the best ways to ensure basic security and quality of life against hazards, deliberate attacks, and disasters. Beyond the unquantifiable costs of injury and loss of life from disasters, statistics for 2011 alone indicate economic damages from natural disasters in the United States exceeded $55 billion, with 14 events costing more than a billion dollars in damages each. One way to reduce the impacts of disasters on the nation and its communities is to invest in enhancing resilience-the ability to prepare and plan for, absorb, recover from and more successfully adapt to adverse events. Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative addresses the broad issue of increasing the nation's resilience to disasters. This book defines "national resilience", describes the state of knowledge about resilience to hazards and disasters, and frames the main issues related to increasing resilience in the United States. It also provide goals, baseline conditions, or performance metrics for national resilience and outlines additional information, data, gaps, and/or obstacles that need to be addressed to increase the nation's resilience to disasters. Additionally, the book's authoring committee makes recommendations about the necessary approaches to elevate national resilience to disasters in the United States. Enhanced resilience allows better anticipation of disasters and better planning to reduce disaster losses-rather than waiting for an event to occur and paying for it afterward. Disaster Resilience confronts the topic of how to increase the nation's resilience to disasters through a vision of the characteristics of a resilient nation in the year 2030. Increasing disaster resilience is an imperative that requires the collective will of the nation and its communities. Although disasters will continue to occur, actions that move the nation from reactive approaches to disasters to a proactive stance where communities actively engage in enhancing resilience will reduce many of the broad societal and economic burdens that disasters can cause.
Author: Loonibha Manandhar
Author: Loonibha Manandhar
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Author: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Author: Nathan R. VanArendonk
Author: Trevor Houser
Author: 
Author: National Research Council
Author: 
Author: David Wallace-Wells
Author: National Academies