Asymmetric Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on the Economic Performance PDF Download

Author: Kevalin Wangpichayasuk
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Monetary policies
Languages : en
Pages : 206

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Author: Volkan Ulke
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 16

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This study investigates asymmetric effects of monetary policy shocks on the macroeconomic variables: exchange rate, output and inflation for an emerging economy, Turkey, by using monthly data between 1990 and 2014. The innovative nonlinear vector autoregressive model of Kilian and Vigfusson (2011), which allows us to observe the effect of different stance (tight or loose) and different size (small or large) of monetary policy action, is employed. The empirical evidence reveals that tight monetary policy, which is captured with a positive shock to interest rate, decrease the exchange rate, output and prices as the economic theory suggest. The effects of the loose monetary policy, which is captured with a negative shock to interest rate, have opposite an effect on these variables. However, the effects of the loose monetary policy are less than the effect of the tight monetary policy the easy monetary policy shocks are less effective than the tight monetary policy shocks. Moreover, as the magnitude of shock increases, the difference between the effects of tight and loose monetary policy policies increase.

Author: Mr.Pietro Garibaldi
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451967551
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 31

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This paper presents theory and evidence on the asymmetric effects of monetary policy on job creation and job destruction. First, it solves a dynamic matching model and it shows how interest rate changes result in an asymmetric response of job creation and destruction. Second, it looks at how changes in the federal fund rate affect gross job flows in the U.S. manufacturing industry, and it finds evidence of asymmetry. Tight policy increases job destruction and reduces net employment changes. Conversely, easy policy appears ineffective in stimulating job creation.

Author: Tiff Macklem
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Recent empirical studies examining the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks on economic activity do not systematically control for the non-monetary sources of fluctuations as well as the endogenous component of monetary policy. The evidence of asymmetry could simply reflect the failure to control for these omitted factors. In this paper, we reconsider the asymmetric effects of monetary shocks in the context of a small open economy using information from the yield curve to measure the stance of domestic monetary policy, while allowing both real and monetary foreign shocks to have asymmetric effects on output. Our principal finding is that while controlling for foreign factors dampens the asymmetry in the effects of exogenous domestic monetary shocks, there is nonetheless strong evidence of asymmetry when the effects of the exogenous and systematic components of the yield spread are considered jointly. We find no evidence of asymmetry in the effects of real factors.

Author: Richard Arden
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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This paper offers evidence of the asymmetric effect of monetary policy on economic activity. First, asymmetric adjustment is captured in three macroeconomic relationships for investment, the consumer price deflator, inventories and house prices. These relationships are then embedded in a small macroeconometric model of the UK economy. Simulations on this model allow us to trace through the interactions of these asymmetries so that a monetary shock, measured by a change in interest rates, affects output and inflation in the short run in ways dependent both upon the sign of the shock and the initial state of the economy. A monetary easing has significantly larger effects on inflation when the economy is close to capacity compared with when it is in recession. These effects are captured by intrinsic asymmetries in the model, due to the use of the logarithm of interest rates and the logarithm of unemployment in the wage equation, as well as the asymmetries coming from the non-linearities which we have introduced explicitly.

Author: Mr.Douglas Laxton
Publisher: International Monetary Fund
ISBN: 1451929358
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 48

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This paper examines the evidence on asymmetries in the effects of activity on inflation. Data for the G-7 countries are found to strongly support the view that the inflation-activity relationship is nonlinear, with high levels of activity raising inflation by more than low levels decrease it. In the face of such asymmetries, the average level of output in an economy subject to demand shocks will be below the level of output at which there is no tendency for inflation to rise or fall, contrary to the implications of linear models. One implication of these results is that policymakers can raise the average level of output over time by responding promptly to demand shocks, thus reducing the variance of output around trend.

Author: Ioannis Pragidis
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 27

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We empirically test the effects of anticipated and unanticipated monetary policy shocks on the growth rate of real industrial production and explicitly test for different types of asymmetries in monetary policy implementation for two major international economies, the U.S. and Brazil. We depart from the conventional method of VAR analysis to estimate unanticipated monetary shocks and instead we use a combination of other methods. We first identify the Taylor rule that best describes the reaction of both central banks and then we test both forward looking linear and nonlinear models concluding that a Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) forward looking model of the Taylor rule best describes the US FED Funds rate while a linear Taylor rule with the inclusion of a dummy variable best describes the reaction of the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB). We then use in-sample forecast errors in order to derive or identify the unexpected monetary shocks for both countries. In line with Cover (1992), we use these shocks to explore any asymmetries in the conduct of monetary policy on the growth rate of real industrial production. We also find asymmetries between anticipated and unanticipated monetary shocks as well as between effects of positive and negative shocks.

Author: Anna Florio
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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The paper deals with the asymmetric effects on output of tight and easy monetary policy: the output reduction following a negative monetary policy shock appears bigger than the expansion induced by similar sized positive shock. The paper first reviews historical evidence of asymmetry, focusing on the United States, Japan and Italy. This is followed by a review of the econometric literature on monetary policy asymmetry and consideration of the theoretical reasons that can explain this asymmetry.

Author: Charles L. Weise
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category :
Languages : en
Pages : 0

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Book Description
This paper tests for nonlinearity in a standard vector autoregression including output, prices, and money supply, using an estimation strategy that is consistent with a wide range of structural macroeconomic models. Shocks to the money supply are found to have stronger output effects and weaker price effects when output growth is initially low. Positive and negative monetary shocks are found to have nearly symmetric effects. In addition, there is some evidence that shocks of different magnitudes have asymmetric effects. These results are consistent with the view that the aggregate supply curve is convex.

Author: Jürgen von Hagen
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1475763905
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 331

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Book Description
Monetary union has dawned in Europe. Now that the common currency is a reality, questions concerning the practical conduct of monetary policy in the European Monetary Union (EMU) are moving to the forefront of the policy debate. Among these, one of the most critical is how the new monetary union will cope with the large heterogeneity of its member economies. Given the large differences in economic and financial structures among the EMU member states, monetary policy is likely to affect different member economies in different ways. Regional Aspects of Monetary Policy in Europe collects the proceedings of an international conference held at the Center for European Integration Studies of the University of Bonn, dedicated to this issue. The contributions to this conference fall into two parts. The first part consists of empirical and theoretical studies of the regional effects of monetary policy in heterogeneous monetary unions. The second part consists of papers analyzing the political economy of monetary policy in a monetary union of heterogeneous regions or member states. The papers all support the conclusion that regional differences in the responses to a common monetary policy will make European monetary policy especially difficult in the years to come. Such differences arise from a variety of sources, and they cannot be expected to be mere teething troubles that will disappear after a while. Even if they were ignored in the run-up to the EMU, Europe's central bankers and economic policy makers will have to learn how to cope with such differences in the future.