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Author: Allan Timmermann Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. We find evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states - are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset allocations vary considerably across these states and change over time as investors revise their estimates of the state probabilities. In the crash state, buy-and-hold investors allocate more of their portfolio to stocks the longer their investment horizon, while the optimal allocation to stocks declines as a function of the investment horizon in bull markets. The joint effects of learning about state probabilities and predictability of asset returns from the dividend yield give rise to a non-monotonic relationship between the investment horizon and the demand for stocks. Out-of-sample forecasting experiments confirm the economic importance of accounting for the presence of regimes in asset returns.
Author: Allan Timmermann Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This paper studies asset allocation decisions in the presence of regime switching in asset returns. We find evidence that four separate regimes - characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states - are required to capture the joint distribution of stock and bond returns. Optimal asset allocations vary considerably across these states and change over time as investors revise their estimates of the state probabilities. In the crash state, buy-and-hold investors allocate more of their portfolio to stocks the longer their investment horizon, while the optimal allocation to stocks declines as a function of the investment horizon in bull markets. The joint effects of learning about state probabilities and predictability of asset returns from the dividend yield give rise to a non-monotonic relationship between the investment horizon and the demand for stocks. Out-of-sample forecasting experiments confirm the economic importance of accounting for the presence of regimes in asset returns.
Author: Ka-Chun Cheung Publisher: ISBN: 9781361203781 Category : Languages : en Pages :
Book Description
This dissertation, "Optimal Asset Allocation Problems Under the Discrete-time Regime-switching Model" by Ka-chun, Cheung, 張家俊, was obtained from The University of Hong Kong (Pokfulam, Hong Kong) and is being sold pursuant to Creative Commons: Attribution 3.0 Hong Kong License. The content of this dissertation has not been altered in any way. We have altered the formatting in order to facilitate the ease of printing and reading of the dissertation. All rights not granted by the above license are retained by the author. Abstract: Abstract of the thesis entitled OPTIMAL ASSET ALLOCATION PROBLEMS UNDER THE DISCRETE-TIME REGIME-SWITCHING MODEL submitted by Cheung, Ka Chun for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong in January 2005 Recently, academics and practitioners have started paying attention to using the Markov Regime-Switching process to model asset price dynamics. The Markov Regime-Switchingmodelcancapturetherealitythattheinvestmentenvironment is changing over time and hence is non-stationary. Another merit of the model is that it can provide a reasonable degree of analytical tractability. In this thesis, the optimal behavior of an investor in a Markov regime-switching environment will be examined. The thesis studies the optimal dynamic asset allocation strategy, the optimal consumption strategy in the presence of default risk, and the optimal surrender strategy of an equity-linked investment product. By employing the concept of stochastic dominance and assuming that the transition matrix is stochasticallymonotone, where both the concept and assumption have natural and appealing financial interpretations, it was shown that the optimal behavior of the investor is consistent with our intuition. As default risk is an important subject in mod- ern finance and actuarial science, this thesis also studies the optimal portfolio problem in which financial instruments are subject to dependent default risks. Sufficient condition to order the optimal allocations was obtained. The analy- sis demonstrates that in the optimal portfolio problem context, the dependency structure between the default risks is essential and cannot be ignored. DOI: 10.5353/th_b3131123 Subjects: Asset allocation - Mathematical models Markov processes
Author: Sarthak Garg Publisher: ISBN: Category : Languages : en Pages : 0
Book Description
The aim of this thesis is to develop a Markov Regime Switching framework that can be used in asset allocation in conjunction with Modern Portfolio Theory. Modern Portfolio Theory has long been a popular tool among big financial institutions. However, one of its major limitations is assumption of stationary market volatility. In this paper, we develop a single period Mean Variance Optimization model that minimizes the variance of a portfolio subject to a specified expected return by combining Modern Portfolio Theory with a Markov Regime Switching framework. Then, we extend the above developed framework to be used in conjunction with a robust optimization framework as proposed by Goldfarb Iyengar in which regards we were partially successful. The portfolios constructed by the Markov Regime-Switching framework were tested out of sample to outperform those suggested by a Simple MVO One Factor model and the Robust MVO One Factor Model.
Author: Allan Timmermann
Author: Allan Timmermann
Author: Massimo Guidolin
Author: Daryn Michael Videlefsky
Author: Huy Thanh Vo
Author: Ka-Chun Cheung
Author: Massimo Guidolin
Author: Massimo Guidolin
Author: Andrea Bartolucci
Author: 
Author: Sarthak Garg