Assessing Uncertainty in Expert Judgments about Natural Resources PDF Download

Author: David A. Cleaves
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Forest health
Languages : en
Pages : 24

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Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 030909318X
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 291

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Nutrient recycling, habitat for plants and animals, flood control, and water supply are among the many beneficial services provided by aquatic ecosystems. In making decisions about human activities, such as draining a wetland for a housing development, it is essential to consider both the value of the development and the value of the ecosystem services that could be lost. Despite a growing recognition of the importance of ecosystem services, their value is often overlooked in environmental decision-making. This report identifies methods for assigning economic value to ecosystem servicesâ€"even intangible onesâ€"and calls for greater collaboration between ecologists and economists in such efforts.

Author: Ajith H. Perera
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1461410347
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 313

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Typically, landscape ecologists use empirical observations to conduct research and devise solutions for applied problems in conservation and management. In some instances, they rely on advice and input of experienced professionals in both developing and applying knowledge. Given the wealth of expert knowledge and the risks of its informal and implicit applications in landscape ecology, it is necessary to formally recognize and characterize expert knowledge and bring rigor to methods for its applications. In this context, the broad goal of this book is to introduce the concept of expert knowledge and examine its role in landscape ecological applications. We plan to do so in three steps: First we introduce the topic to landscape ecologists, explore salient characteristics of experts and expert knowledge, and describe methods used in capturing and formalizing that knowledge. Second, we present examples of research in landscape ecology from a variety of ecosystems and geographic locations that formally incorporate expert knowledge. These case studies address a range of topics that will interest landscape ecologists and other resource management and conservation professionals including the specific roles of expert knowledge in developing, testing, parameterizing, and applying models; estimating the uncertainty in expert knowledge; developing methods of formalizing and incorporating expert knowledge; and using expert knowledge as competing models and a source of alternate hypotheses. Third, we synthesize the state of knowledge on this topic and critically examine the advantages and disadvantages of incorporating expert knowledge in landscape ecological applications. The disciplinary subject areas we address are broad and cover much of the scope of contemporary landscape ecology, including broad-scale forest management and conservation, quantifying forest disturbances and succession, conservation of habitats for a range of avian and mammal species, vulnerability and conservation of marine ecosystems, and the spread and impacts of invasive plants. This text incorporates the collective experience and knowledge of over 35 researchers in landscape ecology representing a diverse range of disciplinary subject areas and geographic locations. Through this text, we will catalyze further thought and investigations on expert knowledge among the target readership of researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in landscape ecology.

Author: National Research Council
Publisher: National Academies Press
ISBN: 0309165393
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 296

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With the growing number, complexity, and importance of environmental problems come demands to include a full range of intellectual disciplines and scholarly traditions to help define and eventually manage such problems more effectively. Decision Making for the Environment: Social and Behavioral Science Research Priorities is the result of a 2-year effort by 12 social and behavioral scientists, scholars, and practitioners. The report sets research priorities for the social and behavioral sciences as they relate to several different kinds of environmental problems.

Author: Jonathan Rougier
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
ISBN: 1107310768
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 587

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Assessment of risk and uncertainty is crucial for natural hazard risk management, facilitating risk communication and informing strategies to successfully mitigate our society's vulnerability to natural disasters. Written by some of the world's leading experts, this book provides a state-of-the-art overview of risk and uncertainty assessment in natural hazards. It presents the core statistical concepts using clearly defined terminology applicable across all types of natural hazards and addresses the full range of sources of uncertainty, the role of expert judgement and the practice of uncertainty elicitation. The core of the book provides detailed coverage of all the main hazard types and concluding chapters address the wider societal context of risk management. This is an invaluable compendium for academic researchers and professionals working in the fields of natural hazards science, risk assessment and management and environmental science, and will be of interest to anyone involved in natural hazards policy.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 1732

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Author: C. Ashton Drew
Publisher: Springer Science & Business Media
ISBN: 1441973907
Category : Science
Languages : en
Pages : 319

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Most projects in Landscape Ecology, at some point, define a species-habitat association. These models are inherently spatial, dealing with landscapes and their configurations. Whether coding behavioral rules for dispersal of simulated organisms through simulated landscapes, or designing the sampling extent of field surveys and experiments in real landscapes, landscape ecologists must make assumptions about how organisms experience and utilize the landscape. These convenient working postulates allow modelers to project the model in time and space, yet rarely are they explicitly considered. The early years of landscape ecology necessarily focused on the evolution of effective data sources, metrics, and statistical approaches that could truly capture the spatial and temporal patterns and processes of interest. Now that these tools are well established, we reflect on the ecological theories that underpin the assumptions commonly made during species distribution modeling and mapping. This is crucial for applying models to questions of global sustainability. Due to the inherent use of GIS for much of this kind of research, and as several authors’ research involves the production of multicolored map figures, there would be an 8-page color insert. Additional color figures could be made available through a digital archive, or by cost contributions of the chapter authors. Where applicable, would be relevant chapters’ GIS data and model code available through a digital archive. The practice of data and code sharing is becoming standard in GIS studies, is an inherent method of this book, and will serve to add additional research value to the book for both academic and practitioner audiences.

Author: Mary A. Meyer
Publisher: SIAM
ISBN: 0898714745
Category : Mathematics
Languages : en
Pages : 471

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Expert judgment is invaluable for assessing products, systems, and situations for which measurements or test results are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide takes the reader step by step through the techniques of eliciting and analyzing expert judgment, with special attention given to helping the reader develop elicitation methods and tools adaptable to a variety of unique situations and work areas. The analysis procedures presented in the book may require a basic understanding of statistics and probabilities, but the authors have provided detailed explanations of the techniques used and have taken special care to define all statistical jargon. Originally published in 1991, this book is designed so that those familiar with the use of expert judgment can quickly find the material appropriate for their advanced background.

Author:
Publisher:
ISBN:
Category : Government publications
Languages : en
Pages : 1100

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Author:
Publisher: Newnes
ISBN: 0080964524
Category : Business & Economics
Languages : en
Pages : 1056

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Every decision about energy involves its price and cost. The price of gasoline and the cost of buying from foreign producers; the price of nuclear and hydroelectricity and the costs to our ecosystems; the price of electricity from coal-fired plants and the cost to the atmosphere. Giving life to inventions, lifestyle changes, geopolitical shifts, and things in-between, energy economics is of high interest to Academia, Corporations and Governments. For economists, energy economics is one of three subdisciplines which, taken together, compose an economic approach to the exploitation and preservation of natural resources: energy economics, which focuses on energy-related subjects such as renewable energy, hydropower, nuclear power, and the political economy of energy resource economics, which covers subjects in land and water use, such as mining, fisheries, agriculture, and forests environmental economics, which takes a broader view of natural resources through economic concepts such as risk, valuation, regulation, and distribution Although the three are closely related, they are not often presented as an integrated whole. This Encyclopedia has done just that by unifying these fields into a high-quality and unique overview. The only reference work that codifies the relationships among the three subdisciplines: energy economics, resource economics and environmental economics. Understanding these relationships just became simpler! Nobel Prize Winning Editor-in-Chief (joint recipient 2007 Peace Prize), Jason Shogren, has demonstrated excellent team work again, by coordinating and steering his Editorial Board to produce a cohesive work that guides the user seamlessly through the diverse topics This work contains in equal parts information from and about business, academic, and government perspectives and is intended to serve as a tool for unifying and systematizing research and analysis in business, universities, and government